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Trainer change systems

Hi all,

I like the idea of focusing on horses changing trainer. Geegeez covers the idea daily, HRB allows you to play around with different versions of the idea. But I don't think I've stumbled across the right system yet (maybe there isn't and it should be used as an angle combined with reading form or insider knowledge).

I'm happy to screenshot my various versions here, but I'm mainly interested to hear from others who like the idea. Do you think it's better to focus on certain horse characteristics (eg, a young/unexposed horse might benefit from a trainer change, or some other set of criteria) or on certain trainer characteristics (eg, a certain trainer does well with new recruits, like Mick Appleby).

Any thoughts welcome.
 
Attached are a couple of examples that show my different ideas.

The first one (for the flat) focuses on horse characteristics as the key thing. Fewer than 5 runs suggests an unexposed horse that might particularly benefit from a trainer trying something new. Additional criteria are that the trainer has had a winner in the last 30 days (hopefully removing ones horribly out of form), CD winners (a standard control variable of mine) and odds.

The second one (for NH) focuses on trainers who have done well with new recruits. This has been discussed on other threads, but I looked back at 2011-2019 to test it in 2020, and also made a system with odd years and one with even years, and grouped the ones who did well in both. This was the short list.

Both are guilty of backfitting (which system isn't...) but i'd welcome people's thoughts, as I can see arguments for building trainer change systems around the horse data or around the trainer data.
 

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  • trainer change ideas.jpg
    trainer change ideas.jpg
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Really good post greyabbey newcomer , that will hopefully see others share their thoughts.

When I am looking at trainer changes, I look at each case individually and go by how the trainer has done in past on first run after getting horses, and will check the profile of those past winners, age etc. Another thing I do is make a comparison between new trainer and previous trainer, to see if the new trainer is better than previous one and likely to get more out of the horse. But I don’t know how these things can be incorporated into a system. You could filter by new trainer’s strike rate for last 1 year, for example only include trainers with 10%+ SR, but I don’t think there is a way of including the same for previous trainer in a system.

One other thing I consider quite important in this regard is the number of days since last run, as I have found this often makes a big difference and this could be included in a system. This too can vary from trainer to trainer, but in general you will find that those running for new trainer within two weeks of last run do quite well.

There is one problem too with creating a system on trainer change, when the new trainer is a family member of previous trainer. For example, when R Hannon Jnr took over from his father, all those horses would show as trainer change on a system but in reality it was the same stable.
 
Thanks F Frontrunner - very helpful. I agree a bit shortcoming of any trainer change approach is the limited options for assessing the previous trainer.

I use a few different methods of characterising trainer performance (win in last 30 days, win SR%, place SR%) depending on if my idea wants them in red hot form or just not terrible form(!).

The days since last run always intrigues me (eg is shorter better because it's literally a change of scene that's the boost or is longer better because it's more time with new methods). Some TC systems I trial suggest that even 1 previous run for a new trainer can still have an effect. The big trixies/trebles that were nearly landed a couple of Sundays ago are useful examples of what's actually going on in a trainer change - as you say, it may be that any TC system is flawed, and it's best to use it as a base from which to judge each case individually.
 
OK I'll try out something with this. Any thoughts or questions welcome as I go along. I'd hope on average (over a year) one tip every couple of days so some days will be a bit heavier and maybe a few days with nothing.

Focusing on all three codes, with slightly different criteria for each. I'm focusing on horses who are having their first run for a new trainer or in some cases have had only one run so far for a trainer. Odds of around 3/1 to around 20/1. I'll do 1pt win to BSP.

One qualifier today:

Newcastle 18:30 Thrilla in Manilla
 
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Two unplaced, with one drifting to nearly three figures before the off. It'd be nice if connections could let us punters know when they're not gonna bother turning up.
 
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