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Trading off play test V0

b-jamin

b-jamin

Yearling
Hi, since two month i looking to trade off play on football

I still research to find an good system, but not really yet. After to did an back test on my excel programm i find this (4system in the same)

http://rapidshare.com/files/1416221144/les 4 systems en 1 (pour le Forum).xlsx (its my excel file)

So since this new year i try to look if it will work another month (but i will look next month if i can find another better system). I precise i did not play in real yet.
I did not analyse any soccer game, but i look only the odds movement. Hope it will work

If i did not say who i bet, it's mean "the favorite"
Liability 10€
Betfair only

So the bet since this new year are:

1/1

Sheffield Wed - Burnley - Lay Under 1.91 - back 1.86 = -0.3

Manchester City - Stoke City - Lay fav 1.34 - back 1.35 = +0.21

5/1

Aston Villa - Ipswich - back fav 1.89 - Lay 1.72 = -0.25

Fulham - Blackpool - back fav 1.69 - Lay 1.8 = +0.53

Oxford Utd - Sheffield - back fav 2.22 - Lay 2.32 = -0.35

6/1

Swansea - Arsenal - back 2.12 - Lay 2.14 = -0.08

Parma - Palermo - back 1.85 - Lay 1.7 = +0.99

Napoli - AS Roma - lay 2.1 - back 2.14 = +0.16

Mallorca - Atl. Madrid - Lay Under 1.78 - back 1.74 = -0.29

Total P/L = +0.61
 
8/1

Valencia - Osasuna - Lay 1.52 - back 1.65 = +1.44

Lazio - Catania - Lay 1.94 - back 2.02 = +0.4

Total P/L = +2.45
 
i just now understand the initial odds that i'm using since two month for to do my system... move. And it cant be considered like intitial. :?

I was going here: http://txodds.com/omoves.php (watching betfair initial odds on any match)

I'm green because if i go look at this initial odds at 19h i can have a bet for my system....
But if i go look the same initial odds at 21h (exemple), it is not an bet for my system. Or the contrary

So my system is variable (depending at what time i go look this site) and surely not good. Its like i was working and register odds for nothing during all this time. I will continue one month more and keeping this mistake but i'm really green to understand that.

You really have to be patient for to find your home system... Its always the same, you begin to enjoy, hoping one good, begin to believe in one and after.... you see an new parameter that you forget who break all. :(
Few days are difficult and i was really near.
 
Thanks thecurlyone of your interest of this post. Me too, its very hard to find positive result in trading off play, but its what i like to do. the best is to concentrate in one championship and find only few value a week. Its for that i'm only concentrate in odds movement and try to find more games.

Regards
 
12/1

QPR - Tottenham - Lay 1.85 - back 1.83 = -0.13

Aston Villa - Southampton - Lay 2.54 - back 2.68 = +0.32

Fulham - Wigan - Lay 2.1 - back 2.18 = +0.32

Bologna - Chievo - Lay 2.06 - back 2.08 = +0.09

Nancy - Lille - Lay 2 - back 2 = 0.0

Total P/L: +3.86
 
thecurlyone have right....i'm trading selections around 5min before the off. And when i did not precise who, its always mean the favorite. For Tottenham, its look like not good. Bad start today i imagine. but its not finish. I'm still in test.
 
b-jamin said:
....... For Tottenham, its look like not good. Bad start today i imagine. but its not finish. I'm still in test.
Click to expand...

Tottenham Not Good. :eek:
Just got back from the game and NOT GOOD is a very apt description. A very poor game of football, probably the worst I have seen this season!
 
I dont have the english premier league at my tv :(

Only one game for tomorrow because i have my sun all the day and can't trade.

13/1

Sochaux - Marseille - Lay 1.92- back 1.87 = -0.24

T P/L: 3.62
 
Héhé , i'm back since yesterday evening..... I was sick during all my "censured" holiday :x

So, there is an game for tomorrow

24/01

Malaga - Barcelona - back 1.44 - lay 1.35 = +1.44

T P/L: +5.06
 
26/1

Bolton - Everton - back 1.71 - lay 1.58 = +1.1

Hull City - Barnsley - lay 1.8 - back 1.82 = +0.13

Brighton - Arsenal - back 1.7 - lay 1.68 = +0.16

T P/L: +6.46
 
30/1

Norwich - Tottenham - Lay 1.85 - back 1.99 = +0.79

Fulham - West Ham - Lay 2.3 - back 2.5 = +0.58

T P/L: +7.37
 
31/1

Atl. Madrid - Sevilla - Lay Under 1.98 - back 1.79 = -1.08

T P/L: +6.29

I did 3 trade on the under and 3 lost :(. Next month i dont do any undertrade
 
January:

Nbre of bet: 25 (with 10 day around on holidays
Nbre of positive trade: 16
T P/L: +6.29
Liability 10€
 
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