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Topspeed

twmills

twmills

Colt
Just trying to work out topspeed for a horse last run over 1M class 3 the horse on day of race was given topspeed of 42 wgt 9-2, next time out sme class over 7f 9-3 he is given a topspeed of 91 how does that work
 
@whu

What was the name of the horse? I know exactly how DE compiles his speed figures.
Just looking at the the difference between the two speed figures, the 91 speed figure was earned in a true run race, and the 42 figure was where the race was run at a steady pace.

Mike.
 
Hi Mike unless i am reading wrong where does the lths he was beaten come into the calculation or dont they and looking at the wfa table for May over a mile it shows as 9lb
 
@whu

Of course the beaten lengths comes into the equation, along with the going allowance on the day, these have already been factored in by Top Speed when compiling his speed figures.

You also have to take into consideration that there were two going allowances on the day, on the round course TS had the going allowance at -0.17s/f, and on the straight course it was +0.30s/f.

If you one of the people who only uses one going allowance your speed figures would have been way out.


Haydock.PNG

These are my speed figures:
Haydock2.PNG

The main differences between my speed figures and Dave Edwards, I do not use WFA, and any rail movements are adjusted for.

Mike.
 
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Sorry BluesBrother how was he then 42 for race before if master is 82 he carried 9-2 before yesterday =12+82=94 less 5 wfa =89 so why only 42 what am i not understanding
 
whu said:
Sorry BluesBrother how was he then 42 for race before if master is 82 he carried 9-2 before yesterday =12+82=94 less 5 wfa =89 so why only 42 what am i not understanding
Click to expand...

I am sorry that you are confused.
Top Speed master rating of 82 for Cold Stare will be the same for every future race until they decide to change it.
When Cold Stare ran at Ripon he ran nowhere near his master rating of 82, and was beaten 10.5 lengths by the winner Restive Spirit
who carried 9-4 and earned a speed figure from Top Speed of 64.

Ripon.png

To work out the beaten lengths for Cold Stare a rough calculation would be 10.5 x 2.3 = 24.15, just subtract this from the winners speed figure of 64.
As Cold Stare carried 2lb less then Restive Spirit, subtract a further 2lb.

Mike.
 
TheBluesBrother said:
@whu

Of course the beaten lengths comes into the equation, along with the going allowance on the day, these have already been factored in by Top Speed when compiling his speed figures.

You also have to take into consideration that there were two going allowances on the day, on the round course TS had the going allowance at -0.17s/f, and on the straight course it was +0.30s/f.

If you one of the people who only uses one going allowance your speed figures would have been way out.


View attachment 65361

These are my speed figures:
View attachment 65363

The main differences between my speed figures and Dave Edwards, I do not use WFA, and any rail movements are adjusted for.

Mike.
Click to expand...
Hi Mike,

How did you work out your comparison as they differ to racing post, are these based on your standard times? I've also seen your video on going allowance which is very helpful but yours differ very much from RP?

How do you take into account rail movement, this seems a little too much???

Any help would be much appreciated

Mark
 
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Markmooney1173 said:
How did you work out your comparison as they differ to racing post
Click to expand...

My method of calculating going allowances are more accurate than Top Speed, he doesn't take into consideration any rail movements, at the last meeting at Kelso the distances were increased by up to 150yds (10.0s).

For example if the winning time was slow by 18.50s and the race distance was +150yds (10.0s) due to rail movements, after I adjusted for the rail movements, the winning time would now read slow by 8.50s.

Markmooney1173 said:
How do you take into account rail movement, this seems a little too much???
Click to expand...

Not quite sure what you are referring to here?

With regards to the Video, I stopped using that method years ago, I now use different variances to calulate going allowances.

Mike.
 
Thank you Mike
TheBluesBrother said:
My method of calculating going allowances are more accurate than Top Speed, he doesn't take into consideration any rail movements, at the last meeting at Kelso the distances were increased by up to 150yds (10.0s).

For example if the winning time was slow by 18.50s and the race distance was +150yds (10.0s) due to rail movements, after I adjusted for the rail movements, the winning time would now read slow by 8.50s.



Not quite sure what you are referring to here?

With regards to the Video, I stopped using that method years ago, I now use different variances to calulate going allowances.

Mike.
Click to expand...

Thank you Mike,

I've been using the Racing post going allowances but sometimes they are higher/lower than i would have calculated. Whats the best way to calculate it so I get a more of a accurate rating.

The Norfolk stakes is a good example. I gave Shang Shang Shang a rating of 71, topspeed gave it as 78 but you gave it as 58 with an allowance of 0.31, why is this so different to the 0.15 from the racing post??

Mark
 
Markmooney1173 said:
The Norfolk stakes is a good example. I gave Shang Shang Shang a rating of 71, topspeed gave it as 78
Click to expand...

DE uses WFA I don't, he also is expected to have speed figures that are compatiable with the RPR in top races, what I am saying is, he will manipulate the going allowance to achieve this.
When Dave worked with the late great Ken Hussey (SCHB), it was common knowledge that a lot of ratings under 70 were made up, nothing has changed here in that respect.
People who follow his speed figures have no idea what is going on, especially the racing professionals at the RP, or as I like to call them the sheep, 200 experts my arse.
If you look at the speed figures on Dave's davejb davejb "Early Days" blog on this forum, he compiles his speed figures including rail movements using the same methods as me.

Mike.
 
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