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Top 20 Trainers with Early Market Support.

Jackform

Colt
Windsor this afternoon is quite a good grade card, which is nice. These are my trainers on the season's merit list that are being supported in the early market.

Windsor (going forecast good) Market Expected from around 08.45.

2.10 ME 4, 5 retricted race
Lahore 6/4, Dark Power 4/1

2.40 ME 1, 2, 4, 6 open race
Valcartier 11/8

4.15 ME 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 restricted race (Lady Perignon not cosidered out of the long hcap)
Dark Shot 10/3

4.45 ME 2, 3, 5 open race
Coolfitch 15/8
 

Jackform

Colt
You probably recognize me as an old codger, experienced mug punter, from my posts and you would be right - but maybe not entirely. How about this as a conversation piece:

STATEMENT; IT IS AN INCONTROVERTIBLE FACT THAT HOWEVER SELECTIONS ARE MADE IF AN ADVANTAGE IS NOT CALCULATED AS ACCURATELY AS POSSIBLE AND ADHERED TO AS THE FINAL ARBITER IN WHETHER TO BET THEN EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME WINS IN THE SHORT TERM OVER THE LONG TERM THERE WILL BE A LOSS.
Incontrovertible is a strong claim, justified by the fact that the layers work to an advantage, the overround, in almost every race and win long-term.

You should determine to begin today and for all your bets in future!

Included a final thought to his article on value (Smartsig 1995 Vol 2, No 3, page 14), which is very apposite, "If you find yourself backing more winners than losers, watch out. It's an excellent value bet that sooner or later you will lose your bank."

It was difficult today to determine an appropriate race to assess as although there are several cards there is no really top-grade race. In the end I decided on the feature race at the principal meeting Newbury.

Newbury (going forecast good to firm)punters advantage by form.
7.30 ME 08.50 nos 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7 was indicating an open contest.

2. The Grand Visir 8/1 early. Punters advantage req better than 5/1.(Haggas/Cosgrave)
4. Harlow 12/1 early. Advantage req better than 7/1.

As an alternative the infineform ratings advantage calculated.

2. The Grand Visir 8/1 early. Punters advantage required better than 9/2. (Haggas/Cosgrave)
4. Harlow 12/1 early. Advantage req 6/1
5. Melting Dew 8/1 early, Advantage req 7/2. Stoute/Moore
 
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Jackform

Colt
Just one point loss on the form selections with Harlow being withdrawn. I have stated that to profit long-term however selections are made you must seek an edge over the layers. This is my attempt to achieve that state of nirvana
.
Selection - by past record on form. Odds - must be longer (at SP for the trial) than the fair odds shown. Staking - level stakes every runner priced.

Jackform Pro-bet (just hyping it up a bit :cool: - I probably confused the issue yesterday by giving alternatives, so just the plain system today).

Sandown (going forecast firm side of good)
4.00 Market expected 09.00 nos 3, 5, 9 was indicating a win from these. ( I compiled a 3 - 2 - 1 form rating from three respected sources for comparison).

1. Berkshire. 8/1 (early market) 11/4 ( fair form odds have to be bettered SP for a punter advantage) (4 rating by pundits)
2. Pacify 11/1 - 11/4 (5)
3. Dark Red 6/1 - 5/1 (3)
5. 5/2 -14/1? (7)
6. 14/1 - 28/1?
7. 10/1 - 28/1 (2)
8. 8/1 - 14/1 (1)
9. 9/2 - 14/1 (4)

Comment: Eugino (Hannon/Alzeni) forecast as a strong fav and market seems very much in the layers favour for advantage. It's necessary to decide whether to take them on or swerve the race.
 

Jackform

Colt
How about applying the principle of advantage to, dare I say it, VDW?

Sandown (going forecast firm side of good)
Market expected 10.05 nos 2, 6, 7, 8, 10 was indicating an open race.

1.
2. Direct Times 1 (my VDW rating) not supported by both from ratings
3. Seeking Magic 3, supported by both form ratings. 11/1 early market - 15/2+ SP required.
4.
5.
6. Queen In Waiting 2, not supported.
7. Shamshon 2, supported. 6/1 early - 9/2+ SP req.
8. Zac Brown 8, not supported.
10. Fethiye Boy 3, not supported

Comment: Please don't take this too seriously (unless they win :cool:). Zac Brown is the likely fav around 3/1 - but past form requires 11/1? Seeking Magic and Shamshon look the punters advantage bets.
 

Jackform

Colt
markfinn markfinn, I don't have a scanner at present.

It was from Smartsig 1995 Vol 2 no 3, page 14. 'Calculating the Value' Colin Evans (worth a read if you have a copy, but just a precis from me now - I know Colin and can vouch for his integrity).
"To be certain you are using an accurate method for calculating value (advantage) it's only necessary to keep an extended record of the calculated prices (together with results) matching the win/lose ratio to the average percentage indicated by the value odds.
If the method is accurate, they should of course come out the same (well almost!). For what it is worth, based on an analysis of close to 5000 races, the following approach delivers the goods.
Using the Racing Post betting forecast (or any source that provides a price for every runner in a race) convert the prices to percentages (3/1 to 25% etc) and then total the lot to show the overround. Now divide each individual price by the total. These, then, in theory are the 'fair' odds about each runner. ( It is necessary to add an increment to gain an advantage when you strike a bet)."

I have used this system, and still do sometimes for comparison, but I prefer to use the early market myself before about 10 a.m. The reason being that the above system is theoretical whereas the market is actual. Then I check my fair form odds against the early market to try to identify where the punter advantage lies, waiting until near the off to allow for any market movement.
 
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Jackform

Colt
Started with the Leicester 3.05 as a trial and then there was a non-runner that changed all the figures arrived at, however, a bet would be Scottish Glen 5 points, Roll On Rory 2 points.

As an alternative I checked out the feature race at Sandown, which has the best form.

Sandown (going forecast GF)
3.35 Market expected 09.50 nos 4, 5, 6, 7 was indicating a win restricted to these.

1. 15/2 (09.50 market) - better than 9/2 req by form. Decorated Knight - 5 points
2. 50/1 - better than 15/1. Desert Encounter - 2 points
3. 28/1 - better than 4/1. Lightning Spear - 5 points
4*. 7/1 -better than 9/2. Ulysses - 5 points
5*. 11/4 - 4/1?
6*. 2/1 - 6/1?
7*. 4/1 - 8/1?
8. 50/1 - 60/1?
9. 66/1 - better than 20/1. Taj Mahal - 1 point

Comment: Cliffs Of Moher f/cast as a strong fav has layers advantage as do all the other early market expected. Taking them on at my form odds. This is the first time 3yo have raced against older horses, so we shall see :prankster:.
 

Jackform

Colt
Ayr (going forecast firm side of good in places)

4.20 Market expected 08.40 nos 3. 4. 6 was indicating a win restricted to these. Theorestical strong fav 5/4, contender 5/2, not expected longer than 5/1.

1. Two For Two 11/2 (market 08.40) better than form fair odds 10/3 - 6 points (SP 7/1 won)
2. Lavetta 12/1 - 15/2 - 3 points
3. Finn Class 4-1 - 10/3 - 6 points
4. 4/1 -25/1?
5. Little Lady Katie 8/1 - 10/3 - 6 points
6. 7/4 - 11/2?
 
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think a bit m
Ayr (going forecast firm side of good in places)

4.20 Market expected 08.40 nos 3. 4. 6 was indicating a win restricted to these. Theorestical strong fav 5/4, contender 5/2, not expected longer than 5/1.

1. Two For Two 11/2 (market 08.40) better than form fair odds 10/3 - 6 points
2. Lavetta 12/1 - 15/2 - 3 points
3. Finn Class 4-1 - 10/3 - 6 points
4. 4/1 -25/1?
5. Little Lady Katie 8/1 - 10/3 - 6 points
6. 7/4 - 11/2?
think more juice in the ground and light rain expected jackform going stick 7.8 at min
 

Jackform

Colt
Ayr (going forecast GS - ground could be a problem!)
4.25 Market expected 08.20 nos - 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9 was indicating an open races. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.

6. Confessional 8/1 (08.20 market) - better than fair form odds req 5/1 - 4 points
7. Lathom 8/1 - 5/1 - 4 points
11. Foxtrot Knight 9/1 - 13/2 - 3 points
 

Jackform

Colt
Beaten a head for a big win yesterday, so 11 points down on the day. A listed class 1 non-hcap today, and these are no my forte (I'm not sure what is
).

Pontefract (going forecast firm side of good in places)
Market expected 08.25 nos 3, 6, 7 was indicating a win restricted to these.

1. 33/1 (08.25 market) better then fair form odds required 60/1+
2. (non-runner)
3. 5/4 - 95/40+ (Dawn Of Hope)
4. 11/1 Home Cummins 17/2+ stake 3 points
5. 11/1 Lincoln Rocks 10/1+ stake 2 points (SP 14/1 won = +28 points - 3 points = +25 pts)
6. 6/1 - 17/2+
7. 5/2 -10/3+
8. 16/1 - 17/2+

Comment: Looks like a race for punters to swerve with the Dawn Of Hope advantage very much in the layers favour. Home Cummins has a good draw but has not won for a year. Lincoln Rocks appears to lack the class for this race. (I was wrong about Lincoln Rocks)
 
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Jackform

Colt
Some 7 months since the last post on this thread so just an update to see how things currently stand. Runners named are from this seasons top 20 trainers merit list last updated Jan 27.

Hereford (going forecast soft, but if the weather is anything like the north end of the west midlands that could deteriorate :()

1.40 Rambling Rector 13, Tossapenny 10
2.10 Report To Base 13 (4/11 won)
2.40 Inniscastle Lad 12
3.10 Nil - but Town Parks (11/4 won) could be considered - Kerry Lee not listed, won LTO
3.40 Another Venture 18 (15/8 won)
4.10 West To The Bridge 16 (6/5 2nd) , Arthur Mac 10 (6/1 won)
4.40 Opening Batsman 21, Toby Lerone 16, Loughaderra Prince 15
 
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Jackform

Colt
The boys done good yesterday :clap:, so try again today where Greatrex and McCain are the only one's trainerwise in the last 14 days..

Newcastle (going forecast soft with some heavy)

1.20 Bob Mahler 20
1.55 Petticoat Tails 23, Birch Vale 12, Chicago Lady 12
2.30 nil
3.05 Tailor Tom 19
3.55 Whitsundays 22
4.05 nil
 

Jackform

Colt
Poor day, but not many listed trainers out yesterday. Having swerved the jumps owing to the forecast heavy going I have complied a top twenty trainers merit list for the AW to keep the thread going, although I seldom do this (so perhaps a wealth warning is in order with this post :doh:).

Chelmsford (going forecast standard)

1.25 My Amigo 13, Shamrokh 9, Lunar Deity 9
1.55 Topamachi 3, (Unit Of Assessment - Knight not listed. 10 for win LTO)
2.25 Harvest Day 23, Watching Spirits 3, Bommerang Betty 1
3.00 Time To Blossom 27
3.35 Furze Lady 13, Persian Prize 3
4.10 Bernie's Boy 21, Bosham 13, Twizell 6
 

Jackform

Colt
Nothing to write home about yesterday at Chelmsford and sticking with the AW again owing to the going on the turf tracks.

Kempton (going forecast standard)
5.55 Bill Cody 4
6.30 Princess De Lune 18
7.30 Azam 3, Bazooka 3
 

Jackform

Colt
Back over the jumps at last.
Catterick (forecast going soft/GS)
1.20 nil
1.50 The Last Day 3
2.25 Peppay Le Pugh 7 (for 2nd LTO)
2.55 Kansas City 21, Dark Sunset 19
3.30 Same Circus 15
4.05 Mount Oliver 21
4.35 Derryname 22
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
markfinn markfinn, I don't have a scanner at present.

It was from Smartsig 1995 Vol 2 no 3, page 14. 'Calculating the Value' Colin Evans (worth a read if you have a copy, but just a precis from me now - I know Colin and can vouch for his integrity).
"To be certain you are using an accurate method for calculating value (advantage) it's only necessary to keep an extended record of the calculated prices (together with results) matching the win/lose ratio to the average percentage indicated by the value odds.
If the method is accurate, they should of course come out the same (well almost!). For what it is worth, based on an analysis of close to 5000 races, the following approach delivers the goods.
Using the Racing Post betting forecast (or any source that provides a price for every runner in a race) convert the prices to percentages (3/1 to 25% etc) and then total the lot to show the overround. Now divide each individual price by the total. These, then, in theory are the 'fair' odds about each runner. ( It is necessary to add an increment to gain an advantage when you strike a bet)."

I have used this system, and still do sometimes for comparison, but I prefer to use the early market myself before about 10 a.m. The reason being that the above system is theoretical whereas the market is actual. Then I check my fair form odds against the early market to try to identify where the punter advantage lies, waiting until near the off to allow for any market movement.
Jackform Jackform - This is the Smartsig the Colin Evans article mentioned above was in if anybody's still interested in it
 

Attachments

Jackform

Colt
Here is a first time ever today for me :D posting 'possibles' at a meeting forecast with heavy going.

Chepstow (going forecast heavy) Only those that have previously shown that they can act on the going are named.
1.10 Don't Ask 19, Marley Firth 16, Luckofthedraw 9
1.40 Rolling Dylan 17, Souriyan 14
2.15 Bill And Barn 26, Rock My Style 23
2.45 Market road 13, Caprice D'Anglais 10
3.20 Champagne chaser 25, Molly Carew 17
3.55 Allchillout 12, Catching On 12
 
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