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Tomorrow Done Today

I am of course guessing, and it's not like these races aren't competitive - but if one managed to win, I'd take it.
 
Been waiting to see if any support for Minella Away in this 4.50 race too as he's a horse well treated on his Irish form, but it looked like they was trying to get the mark down in two runs since joining Pauling.

He has cut a bit in to 16/1 generally, 20/1 tops, not that it's taken much. I want to keep him on side today so I've had a little on
 
Outisaid was the standard setter for me in this race, pretty weak in the betting at the moment though back from a break.

Banana Joe's form for me is average, fair enough he was given quite a bit to do, but I can't believe how short he is.

If Just Go For It wins then I deserve to lose because there must be something wrong with the rest of this field, as he is a hard horse to watch.

Apple Mack has a really good record at Hereford, and I think he's 13lb lower than his two 2nds here, although, his form suggests that the soft ground is a question mark today - he's actually quite a scary horse at 12s returned here as he clearly seems to run his best at the course.

Gilwen Grayson is making his handicap debut, and caught the eye LTO. You would want to see money to get involved, but he will come good at some point once he sorts his jumping out as he has been a horror.

Coachella will appreciate the extra distance, but I would be disappointed if there wasn't something better handicapped in here.
 
RyanWe said:
I really thought Electron Bleu could go well at a big price in the Hidden Commander race, but paddy opened at 7s, so both 365 and hills dramatically cut their prices without taking anything.
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Those who take an interest in the EP markets will have noticed the current situation as WH go up 2 days in advance but then appear much affected by B365 as from 3pm the afternoon before. Of all the larger on line Bookmakers Paddy is the most rancid of the lot imo but fair dues they do appear willing to take a standout position against a horse. What i have noticed is they tend to fear the more obvious front of the market contenders but often compensate via best price against some of the less favoured runners.

The opening over rounds for all are now very defensive often at a piddle take 3% per runner, but even allowing for this they do still occasionally rick a price which can make the increasing frustrations of watching waiting and then attempting to get on still worthwhile, but i fear the glory days have gone. One of the few edges remaining early doors is to be able to utilize the weather Fcs Re a possible and significant going change because the Bookmakers odds compilers can still miss a trick in this respect.

With the above in mind in recent years there has been an increase in EPs at the 4 day dec stage last flat i saw even some 0-90 Hcaps priced up then. Of course you are playing at ante post terms but by this stage if you have done the advance work you can generally conclude that the race concerned is a legitimate target for your pick so the risk of backing a N/r is greatly reduced with the added positive of no subsequent R4 deductions. While the draw will be an unknown i have found that this risk is often compensated by the good value available at the time.
 
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As for 365 prices, I have yet to find a consistent way to get on at their prices - apart from on the day, but it's easy by then.
 
Actually I do have one account, but they just do prices on the day, and BOG is after 10am - so I don't really get to use them, hence why it's probably still standing 😆
 
RyanWe said:
I really thought Electron Bleu could go well at a big price in the Hidden Commander race, but paddy opened at 7s, so both 365 and hills dramatically cut their prices without taking anything. He could well drift out again, and I would be tempted if it was big enough.
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Had a little go at 14s.

Both these Kirby horses are friendless this morning, it's never nice to see.
 
Two for Plump tomorrow..

Plump 12.30 Ayr Of Elegance 12/1 (Could end up fav or 66/1)

This one has dropped 29lb since coming over from Ireland, with the trainer only sending one runner here before and it won (this is also his sole runner). Blinkers have also been put on for the first time suggest, which is always a good indicator to me.

Plump 3.15 Our Nest Egg 18/1

This was actually running a nice way over this CD two starts ago, back in November, but fell in the back straight when jumping in to another horse. It was terrible 13 days later on boggy Ffos ground, but the suspicion is that they put her away and have been waiting for some better ground again, which they will certainly get here.

We saw her go close twice last season off marks of 87 & 89, but running off just 76 here with Bastyen good for his 3lb claim, she could surprise at nice odds.
 
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