• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Tomorrow Done Today

RyanWe

Yearling
Hello everyone, a fellow poster told me about this place and said it was worth joining, so I hope it can be fruitful.

I wouldn't say I back loads of winners, as I play the long game, backing horses where I believe their price to be bigger than their actual chance of winning, so it's not for the fainthearted.


I do tend to focus on the early market, as in the day before as that's generally the best time to see what I think the books have got wrong. Now I know it's not easy to get on early prices, but if you are resourceful then you can get it done.

Feel free to ask any questions, I'm more than happy to answer them.

First selection incoming, hopefully it's a screamer
 
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RyanWe

Yearling
Grimm Star in the 3.20 at Hereford tomorrow - 8s with hills

Any horse that moves to the good doctor's yard always deserves the upmost respect, and this looks a good one to me when looking at the trainer's respective strike rates in handicap hurdle company these past 5 seasons (0% VS 18%).

Although we don't know how lenient an opening mark of 106 is over here from Ireland, looking at what the horses done around him when a 5.75l 4th at Punchestown, it looks very fair, with the winner of that race winning a listed hurdle on his next start, and then finishing just a length behind Young Ted who is a solid 125 handicapper.

The selection actually did well to finish as close as he did given the race turned in to a dash, and he was poorly placed in the rear and wide too. The stable conditional even takes a very handy 6lb off here, so he's effectively running off just 100.

It's interesting that he's also been entered for another conditional race on Friday in case this meeting didn't go ahead, so it looks like they are expecting a good win, so they can turn the horse out without any penalty
 

RyanWe

Yearling
Courtesy of my favourite stats man PHS

Dr Newland switchers since 2015/16 season = 25.7% (49.5% pl)

Strike rates for ex-IRE or ex-UK over Hurdles virtually identical at 27.x%.

Looking at finishing position last time out(LTO), the highest strike rate is for 6th or 7th (Grimm 7th LTO) with 5 out of 10 winning.
 
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RyanWe

Yearling
It's nice to meet you all :D

I'm really not that big on stats myself, as I feel it's factored in to the market price most of the time.

Although as Chesham kindly posted, I'm not sure that 80% SR was factored in to the early price 😝
 

RyanWe

Yearling
Hereford 1.20 Jimmy Bell - 11/1 with a few

He won over tomorrow's CD two starts back, which was his seasonal debut, and he done it pretty well too with 5l back to the second. This saw him put up 8lb, which obviously made life tougher, but he certainly wasn't out of it when falling two out.

What makes him appealing tomorrow is that the brilliant Brogan is back on, the best 7lb claimer about, with a staggering 25% SR over hurdles this season, and he was on board when the horse won two starts back, but he couldn't claim then due to the conditions of the race. Now he can claim the full 7lb, so he's effectively only 1lb higher than his win here, which could count for a lot as the only course winner in the race.
 

RyanWe

Yearling
He likes Brogan's other ride in the Grimm Star race, Apple Rock - who does look like he wants the return to this trip.

It's one of those races where you could make a case for plenty, hopefully Grimm is so well handicapped I don't need to worry about the rest 😅
 

tacker

Mare
Grimm Star in the 3.20 at Hereford tomorrow - 8s with hills

Any horse that moves to the good doctor's yard always deserves the upmost respect, and this looks a good one to me when looking at the trainer's respective strike rates in handicap hurdle company these past 5 seasons (0% VS 18%).

Although we don't know how lenient an opening mark of 106 is over here from Ireland, looking at what the horses done around him when a 5.75l 4th at Punchestown, it looks very fair, with the winner of that race winning a listed hurdle on his next start, and then finishing just a length behind Young Ted who is a solid 125 handicapper.

The selection actually did well to finish as close as he did given the race turned in to a dash, and he was poorly placed in the rear and wide too. The stable conditional even takes a very handy 6lb off here, so he's effectively running off just 100.

It's interesting that he's also been entered for another conditional race on Friday in case this meeting didn't go ahead, so it looks like they are expecting a good win, so they can turn the horse out without any penalty
Welcome RyanWe RyanWe and let me say i was impressed by your opening few posts but because i have had a warning about who i interact with decided to step back until others got involved.

GRIMM STAR I can see the logic behind some of your reasoning ie 4th behind a horse going on to win a listed race but the 3rd horse is rated 96.
His 2 subseqent runs i would suggest show him to be a horse that at this time should be rated under 100, it's worth saying that to understand the reletive merits of uk/ire form is beyond me but probably best to believe the handicappers know best so we are left with the question of whether 106 is lenient or not ? well as i have already indicated there are positives and negatives but for me i would say no!
The main factor to consider here is could this horse be some sort of planned coup for the want of a better word ? well the 8/1 has gone so who knows if the horse has run on it's merits up to now but my thinking if there hasn't been any shinanagins involved then quite a few horses that finished infront of GRIMM STAR are well placed to win races over here.

Hopefully i'm wrong (again) and you're right and this horse hacks up....best of luck.
 

RyanWe

Yearling
Grimm ran OK, travelling well for a long way before weakening late on.

Not sure what SP he went off at, but he was pretty weak in the betting, and was around 8/1 on the exchanges at the off, but who knows if there was anything in it in regards to needing the run, or he simply wasn't good enough.
 

RyanWe

Yearling
Thanks Frontrunner. I checked out some of your write ups - yer not too shabby!

ATB for the week ahead.
 

RyanWe

Yearling
I'm giving Kayf Adventure a little bash EW in the 2.35 at Wetherby tomorrow - 16/1 generally, 18s with sky I think

I wouldn't say it was necessarily a positive switch from Hobbs to Hammond, but he knows the time of day, and can land a touch. This one ran OK when finishing a 13l 5th here over a few furlongs further. Dropped 2lb, and Brogan takes off 7lb too. He's effectively 6lb better off than last time, which was his first run since a wind op, so hopefully he will get closer if coming on for the run, but he would need to as I know it is a fair race.
 

RyanWe

Yearling
Naturally there were two more nonners in the Kayf to make 7 runners, and he of course finished third 😆

Not much interested me today, but there are quite a few tomorrow that I think are worth a go, maybe too much.
 

Emptymind

Filly
Hi Ryan. Could you share your views please on today's Common race thread. A Hurdle handicap has been chosen. Its under racing and utilities. I would be interested in how you handicap a race. In particular a handicap hurdle. This would help me when i have to do them for Scoop 6 etc. I will require it as detailed as possible. Call a baby sitter or family.

UKBF Common Race
 

RyanWe

Yearling
Shattered Glass at 9/1 in the 1.10 at Catterick

There was a lot of promise on his seasonal/chase debut here last month, where the 19f trip was far too short for him to get in to the race, but he finished full of running and ran on in to 5th.

Up in trip to 25f here, he's a 24f winning PTPer, and really looks like he would relish this sort of test. The handicapper has dropped him 5lb, which could prove lenient, and he's more than a fair price.

My biggest worry is the weather forecast, it's not the best, but you've got to be in it, to win it.
 
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