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    Ark Royal
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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

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  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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TomasZ’s way

TomasZ

Filly
Hello
It is my first post in here.
I’m not a pro as most of you guys. Just started my horse journey in January this year. Pretty much most of the time I have no idea what you are talking about 🤣 but hey everyday is a school day!

Bank £1000

Chepstow 14.57 PERFECT MAN Win@13.00
Stake: £100
 
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MartinK

Colt
Hi TomasZ TomasZ, good luck with your system. I notice you're using 10% of your bank for stakes but, at the odds you're going for, I'd suggest only 0.5% of bank. Otherwise, with the long losing runs those odds are likely to bring, you'll soon exhaust the bank.

Just google "longest losing run" or similar term and you'll see that, with a 20% strike rate, you have a 75% chance of getting 20 losers on the bounce, a 50% chance of 24 losers, a 25% likelyhood of 28, and a 1% chance of 42. This assumes around 650 bets. Also, you'll find that different statisticians give different stats, which can become confusing.

With my own betting I use a "1% variable" staking plan. So if I started with a 1,000 bank I'd use £10 per horse on day 1. If that was a losing day and my bank ended up at £950 I'd use 1% of that (£9.50) on day 2. If day 2 was great and my bank finished at £1,052, then on day 3 I'd use 1% of £1,052 (£10.52) per horse. That way, you can never run out of bank.

Sorry for the lecture, but you did say that you were new to the game! :)
 

TomasZ

Filly
Hello
It is my first post in here.
I’m not a pro as most of you guys. Just started my horse journey in January this year. Pretty much most of the time I have no idea what you are talking about 🤣 but hey everyday is a school day!

Bank £1000

Chepstow 14.57 PERFECT MAN Win@13.00
Stake: £100
Not good start.
Bank: £900
Profit: £-100
 

TomasZ

Filly
Hi TomasZ TomasZ, good luck with your system. I notice you're using 10% of your bank for stakes but, at the odds you're going for, I'd suggest only 0.5% of bank. Otherwise, with the long losing runs those odds are likely to bring, you'll soon exhaust the bank.

Just google "longest losing run" or similar term and you'll see that, with a 20% strike rate, you have a 75% chance of getting 20 losers on the bounce, a 50% chance of 24 losers, a 25% likelyhood of 28, and a 1% chance of 42. This assumes around 650 bets. Also, you'll find that different statisticians give different stats, which can become confusing.

With my own betting I use a "1% variable" staking plan. So if I started with a 1,000 bank I'd use £10 per horse on day 1. If that was a losing day and my bank ended up at £950 I'd use 1% of that (£9.50) on day 2. If day 2 was great and my bank finished at £1,052, then on day 3 I'd use 1% of £1,052 (£10.52) per horse. That way, you can never run out of bank.

Sorry for the lecture, but you did say that you were new to the game! :)
Hi MartinK !
Thanks buddy for great lecture.I really appreciate that. I’ll definitely look up into it closer 🙂
Yes I’m new to the game and any constructive criticism or others points of views is more than welcome !
Thank you and good luck!
 

TomasZ

Filly
Well that was a very appropriately named horse for your first win here! :)
Good luck TomasZ TomasZ and well done.
I wouldn't want to be playing those stakes for real though, mind.....lol
Hi Retriver
Yes it was indeed first winner for me in here!
Yeah I know stakes are quite high.
Long story short. Accidentally casino app opens and as I was trying to turn it off I bet £25 on number and I was like ffs! But the number came! So I have decided give it a go in here :) As I’m nearly back up to the point I have started I need to figure something out with my stakes.
Got some lecture from MartinK to read !
 
A useful way to think through staking is to divide your betting bank into points. If you're betting low odds you might divide it by 50, medium odds 100 or bigger odds 150. Divide your bank by your choice and make that your 1pt stake. Even the most successful system will have losing runs and drawdowns, so it's helpful to keep reserves.

Based on selections of between 9/2 and 12/1 so far, maybe 100pts would be reasonable? So £1000 bank would equal £10 stakes. Or just take away the financial aspect when testing, and do 0.5pt/1pt/2pt stakes as you see fit.
 

TomasZ

Filly
A point is whatever you want to make it, but its essentially a defined fraction of your betting bank.

When it comes to betting I like to use a real digits rather than pts or other units. It simply shows how much I actually bet on certain selections. Sometimes I just got that feeling that £70 is just enough for that bet, sometimes it will be £130. I guess everything depends of race, odds etc. Can’t really explain it. 😬
But you all right I need to get more into that “percentage game”
 
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When it comes to betting I like to use a real digits rather than pts or other units. It simply shows how much I actually bet on certain selections. Sometimes I just got that feeling that £70 is just enough for that bet, sometimes it will be £130. I guess everything depends of race, odds etc. Can’t really explain it. 😬
But you all right I need to get more into that “percentage game”
It makes sense to use real digits, but if you're having a betting bank (which anybody with a system/approach should) then the points become the real digits in that process.

If you're betting £70, that's 7% of your entire betting bank on one bet. If you're betting £130, that's 13% of your betting bank in one bet.

As an example, I have a system I use for National Hunt racing. It's been profitable for 8 years, with a 45% strike rate at average odds of 2/1. Even with that strike rate (not far from winning with half my bets), I've had one losing run of 11 races, three losing runs of 8 races, four losing runs of 7 races.

Your odds seem a bit bigger than that, so there will be a longer losing run at some point. I have other systems with 20% strike rates with losing runs of 25 races. With a betting bank and good staking, that's absolutely fine. And if it's a good system, then you can increase the betting bank as you make money with it. Eg, 1pt in £1000 betting bank might be £10. But if the system does well, you'll eventually have a £2000 betting bank. Then 1pt can be £20. And so on.
 
Good luck TomasZ TomasZ . Jackson Hill was a possible bet for me, I think it has a good chance but decided to leave it. The price drop is due to the original favourite being a non runner, so I would imagine there would be a big Rule 4 deduction on the early price.

There has been some really good advice offered by MartinK MartinK and greyabbey newcomer about staking and losing runs. No matter how good anyone is at picking winners, they will hit a losing run at some time so your staking percentage has to be right so that your bank will be able to withstand the losing runs when they happen. Betting 10% or even 5% of your bank at these prices is way too high, I would advise 1% to 2% at most. The reason to use points instead of real money figures is it makes easier to compare, for example someone with a bank of £10000, 1% is equal to £100 and is not a big bet, but from a bank of £1000, £100 is a huge bet at 10% of the bank and a very risky strategy.
 
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