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Today's bets

It looks like I am having a rest at the moment from actually backing anything.
Two horses at Wetherby caught my eye last night.

4.10 Alamzhar Garde

Since there are 13 runners in this race some generous bookmakers are offering
1/5th the odds for the first 4 places. The problem is that the horse is only 5 years
old and Wetherby is a tough jumping track. One bad error can often scupper a
horse's chances at this venue. Alamzhar Garde looks a horse full of promise and
hopefully will be going into a number of notebooks after today.

4.45 Mr Scrimpy

I was very surprised that 6/1 of the 9 runners was freely available last night about
this good sort. As always the 6/1 did not last long and a while ago Mr Scrimpy had
come into 9/2 favourite. Ultra consistent and should run its race.

A word of caution here. Both horses are having their first runs of the season and
are running against some horse that are race fit .
 
The final race at Gowran Park, the 5.05, appears a very interesting one.
I believe that the 15/2 available about Evening Primrose offers
excellent e.w. value especially with a non-runner or two.
In its last race Evening Primrose broke its seasonal duck winning well. As with
today the horse was only moderately fancied going off as the 5th favourite of 12
runners. The ground is reported as being heavy (hence the increasing number
of non-runners at the meeting) which should in no way hamper the selection.

Seanie Heffernan retains the ride after winning on Evening Primrose which was his
first ride on the horse. Of great significance is that the horse has been tried, and
failed, at some of the top Irish racing tracks such as Leopardstown and The Curragh.
Also in the horse's favour is that it is the highest rated of the four three year olds
partaking in the race.

Of the opposition Swift Verdict could be anything on this heavy going but odds of
13/8 give no room for manoeuvre. On a speed basis at Thurles Snegwichka is clearly
held. The horses beaten last time by Dawn Over Owning at Killarney were a poor lot.
 
The 2.04 at Stratford looks a good race to get your teeth into.
On the figures that I produce Dustin Des Mottes fails on number
of horses beaten. Other than that statistic DDM is a consistent type.
Fanzio has consistent ratings throughout but only appears on Weight
Carried to have a top rating.

That leaves Templehills and Aintree My Dream. They both have ended
up with the same rating. Templehills has had one winning run for its
new trainer but this came in an ordinary £4k race. Clearly the horse is
open to bags of improvement. On prize money competed for Aintree
My Dream is the best of the four and scores consistently in other areas
too. I have placed a bet upon Aintree My Dream.
 
I have made a profit on both Friday and Saturday so I am hopeful
that the two selections today will not go belly up.

2.15 at Cork

I have not assessed this race in great detail but Goodbye Someday
looks to have the best credentials of any horse in the field.

2.22 at Huntingdon

By contrast I spent a long time in assessing the runners in this race
before reaching a firm conclusion. I have placed a bet upon Lots of Luck.
One of the reasons for the selection is that the horse is used to carrying large
weights in handicaps. Other contenders in the field such as Bathina, Dallas
Cowboy and Wencelaus are also being asked to carry large weights. There is
less evidence to believe that they are capable of doing so. The only area that
Lots of Luck comes out poorly is in value of races run. The horse has only run,
and won, in races to the value of £4k and £3k so today's ask is a step up for the
horse.
 
My figures show that the 6.45 at Chelmsford could go the way of Dawaan.
The only reason being that the horse is clear upon the figures that I produce
for the AW. The figures show Solid Stone to have a decent chance whilst the
likes of What's the Story and Assimiliation may have work to do to trouble the
principals.
 
An even better bet on the figures than yesterday's Dawaan appears
in the 4.00 at Newcastle. The top weight Mustarrid looks to have a few
pounds in hand of its rivals. Normally backing a top weight on the AW
is not a good idea. However, in this particular race if you ignore the horse
at the bottom of the handicap there is not a great deal of spread between
the rest of the field.
The form of Mustarrid upon the flat is not particularly inspiring being only
a (67-83) horse. It is a different story on the AW where Mustarrid competes
successfully in a higher grade being a 89-103 horse. With today's race at
Newcastle being only a 72-87 race the attraction of Mustarrid is apparent.
The figures shown above are referring to Official Ratings.

Of the rest of the field the consistent National League is capable of running
well at this level. On its best form Dawaleeb would be a contender but it is
also a somewhat inconsistent type. Little Jo is consistent but appears not to
be improving. Ulshaw Bridge is more consistent than Dawaleeb but seems to
lack the latter's ability to actually win.
 
I have backed three today :-

1.00 Leicester When Your Ready

2.50 Plumpton Jungle Prose

4.10 Wolverhampton Habit Rouge

All three selections were found relatively quickly using
little more than the Official Ratings. The three received
additional support as being in the first two from a ratings
site.
 
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If I have read the 5.45 at Chelmsford correctly there looks to
be a horse that is very over-priced. Samphire is available on
the Exchange at 16/1.
The horse generally runs in races where the principals are rated
c. 77-84. This was certainly the case when it ran fairly well with
9.2 in a £6k Cl 4. Today's race is a 0-78 and is a £5k Cl 5.

Also of interest at a good price is Dancing Rave. By contrast this
78 is at the upper limit of this one's ability. The horse did run very
well in a 67-74 where Dancing Rave was the 74. He carried 9.8 that
day in a 3k. He is likely to find one or two such as Samphire simply
too good.
 
It will be good to get back to the NH after a very mixed effort on the AW.
The 2.50 at Hereford sees the re-appearance of Miss Jeanne Moon. The form
of last times out win is actually better than at first appearance since the horse
was upset by the camber of the finish of the Fontwell course switching
from one side of the course to the other after the final fence. Fortunately the
horse had enough ground in hand to win convincingly. You could mark this
performance up by another 5/6 lbs.

Of the two in front of her in the betting market, Valse Au Taillons front-raced
to a convincing victory in a weak £4k race. Hopefully the other jockeys will not
give her the luxury of a free ride at the front of affairs. Molly Ollys Wishes is
likely to start favourite on the back of running reasonably well in a hot £15k
race finishing in a respectable 7th of 14. This race was far better than any that
she had previously competed in. It remains to be seen if she has just been moved
back in class to give her the confidence to win at what was her previous level or
was the run at a much higher level just a one off tilting at windmills.
None of these three principals have much of an ability rating with Miss Jeanne Moon
being marginally the best..

I think that Miss Jeanne Moon looks very solid here.
 
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After reviewing the Van Der Wheil correspondence, for the umpteenth
time!, I have found three bets that I believe are conducive with the
methodology :-

12.45 Newbury. This race looks close between Eritage and Anemoi. I have
backed Eritage to win. Amazingly Anemoi is shown as finishing last of the
six horses upon the Racing Post Predictor.

2.25 Newbury. Capage is the class act in this race but pays for his class by
conceding weight to some talented rivals. Another bet all in.

3.00 Newbury. Paisley Park is again the class act in the field. The question
this horse has to answer is "was the poor last time display at the Cheltenham
festival a clear sign of long term decline or was it just a case of one race too
many in a season which saw a large number of runs?"
Paisley Park is miles ahead of its rivals upon the ability rating.
The improver McFabulous is clearly a danger to all but odds of 7/4 about a
first season novice is playing into the hands of the layers.
 
The final race of the meeting at Kelso (the 3.20) is an excellent long-distance
handicap featuring many horses that run regularly against each other.
I have backed two mini-outsiders in Bigirononship and Iwilldoit.
You could easily pick three or four runners in this field and not be 100%
confident that you had found the winner. In recent days the Ability Rating
has come to the fore in the better NH handicaps and both of these horses
score well in that field.

The other area of importance at the present time is prize money competed for.
Many of the principals in this race fall down on this factor. Perhaps the majority
of the field may just find the competition too hot.
 
After posting my thoughts at the earliest part of the month, today I am now posting
at the end of the month.

At Doncaster

2.05 I think that Big Bite may prove a shade better than its two other closely matched rivals.

4.17 I have changed my mind upon this race. Originally I was keen upon the chances
of the favourite Joi Froid. After reviewing the speed figures it appears that Tipalong
has something in hand of the rest of the field.

At Lingfield

2.25 Super Julius at 4/1 of the nine runners, seems to be a very reasonable price for this good
and consistent sort.

Postscript. It would have been another wretched day if I would have had any money on anything.
The day was summed up by the success of Joi Froid in the 4.17. This horse was an early
selection. The horse was dismissed because I wrongly believed that the horse was
incapable of carrying the weight in this company. What was significant today was the
number of highly weighted horses that won their races despite the going conditions
being very soft.
If I do find anything of interest tomorrow I will not consider the weight as being
a significant factor. Perhaps "class in which they raced" is of greater significance.
Also, speed figures should be taken with a pinch of salt.
 
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Doncaster is a favourite track of mine. After researching the races I
have backed two horses :-

3.15 Cap du Nord at 9/2

3.50 Special Acceptance at 6/1

Both horses have shown the ability to compete and win in today's class.
Neither horse should be inconvenienced by the prevailing soft going.
 
The 2.35 at Lingfield is an interesting race.
On form figures Crackling is the best horse
in the race. Its best rating was received last
time at Southwell, a very different course to
Lingfield. Crackling did win as a 2 year old at
Lingfield so it does have winning knowledge
of the contours of the course.
At a bigger price Accomplice is capable of making
a race of it with Crackling, although he does have
a 6 point deficit to make up with the favourite.

The 3.10 has a more open feel to it. On the figures
Capriolette, which has drifted out to 10/1 in places,
has 3 points in hand of Stopnsearch and a further
point in hand of Convertible. I believe that the weight
difference favours Capriolette.
 
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I have made minor adjustments to my selection process in the
intervening period (what's new ?).

I have not placed a bet upon the 1.20 at Cheltenham because
certain of the ratings are conflicting. In terms of value of races
contested Gaillard is ahead of Bob Ollinger, who in turn is
clear of Braveman and Bear Ghylls. On the basis of value of races
contested Bear Ghylls should not really get a look in here.

When it boils down to ratings all the contenders bar Bear Ghylls are
very evenly rated. Both Bob Ollinger and Braveman have identical
ratings whilst Gaillard is close enough in the ratings to these two to
also have a chance of taking the spoils.
If pushed I would select Bob Ollinger.

From a value perspective there looks like a couple of decent bets at Lingfield.
In the 4.25 at Lingfield, City Tour is 7 points clear of Oslo. In terms of value of races
contested Alpha Theta has the edge over the other contenders. Alpha Theta will
struggle from a form perspective though.
The selection is City Tour.

In the earlier 3.15 race Beat Le Bon is just one point behind Young Fire in the ratings.
The high ratings of Young Fire were achieved some time ago though, hence the 25/1
odds. When looking at the values of races contested both Beat Le Bon(19k) and Young
Fire (12k) have contested recent races well in advance of the opposition.
The selection is Beat Le Bon.
 
In the 3.30 at Market Rasen, Quest for Life looks to have a very
good chance of taking the spoils at a decent price.
Sound on ratings and with a good Top Speed profile too this
horse stands a good chance of winning.

The Novices Handicap Chase at Haydock, the 1.30, looks to be far
more open. I have backed two in this race. The initial selection was
Keep Rolling. Further examination showed that Captain Blackpearl
also possesses decent TS and Form profile too. Of the two I believe
that Keep Rolling has the more progressive profile.
 
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