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Today's All Weather Racing

Dave

Colt
16:40 Southwell - You're Cool - This 9 year old Exceed and Excel gelding is just hitting form for Derek Shaw having won LTO at Wolverhampton over 5F. Laura Pearson was onboard for that win and she is back on board again today with a very useful 5Lbs claim. You're cool has one good bit of form over C&D back in March 2020 finishing third off a rating of 75 carrying 10-0. Since then the gelding has plummeted down the weights and today is racing of a rating of 61 and carrying 8-7 and has Laura's allowance. This is a featherlight weight and he is proven on the surface and has recently started to hit form. If he brings anything like the form he ran to back in March 2020 then he is certainly going to be looking for a place in the winners enclosure. The price is currently 8/1 which I believe is good value and is an E/W play.

I also like the look of the favourite Centurion Song but the price has now gone.

16:40 Southwell - You're Cool 1pt E/W at 8/1


19:10 Southwell - Nick Vedder
- Those that follow my blog will know that I really like the recent form of this gelding. LTO he ran over 7F and I believe the jockey left him too much to do and he finished back in 4th. I believe teh jockey was concerned over the distance and was trying to conserve his energy and then come with a late run. In truth 7F isn't his best distance and he is now back over 6F and in very good form. I think the jockey will be much more confident about his ability over this distance and I can't see him losing this race.

I know Dirchill is getting a lot of support in the market but I think that Archimedes is the one that will trouble Nick Vedder the most. Although he was beaten by 4 lengths LTO 4 days ago to Jazz Legend that race was run at some pace and the sectionals look decent. Any repeat of that and he will be out running his price of 10/1. The unknown is the Richard Fahey runner Katelli who on this surface is an unknown quantity. I would prefer to go with proven form, sectionals and speed rating and they all point to Nick Vedder winning this and Archimedes being a danger.

19:10 Southwell - Nick Vedder 1pt win bet at 13/8

Straight Forecast Nick Vedder to beat Archimedes. 0.5 points.
I’m really pleased to have got the 19:10 race right after the disappointment of You’re Cools run in the 16:40 race. Nick Vedder barged his way through to victory but left it very late. Still it’s money in my account and that’s what’s important. Keep an eye out for when Jazz Legend next runs at Southwell as Archimedes franked the form tonight.
 

Dave

Colt
Well I managed to get out of jail with the last selection Nick Vedder when he barged his way through to win and Archimedes took 2nd place to get the recommended straight forecast up. I was half expecting Nick Vedder to lose the race in the steward room but the result stood and the blog ended the day in profit.

I thought Astigar ran a good race but the ground conditions went against him as the ground was Heavy. That said he took the final flight in the lead but the Henderson horse proved just that bit stronger on the run in.

I have been through today's cards and the ground conditions at the NH meetings are going to be dreadful based on the amount of rain we have had recently. I have no interest in what is happening at Newcastle and so that leaves me with Southwell. I have placed one bet today and that is in the following race

18:30 Southwell - False Id is an 8 year old gelding by Aqlaam who is trained by David Griffiths and ridden by Phil Dennis. He won over C&D only 3 days ago and that was his first attempt over the distance at this course having raced over further previously. He looked the winner all the way and he was pressed all the way to the line but always had the race under control. There are dangers in the race and the obvious one is Van Dijk and Crazy Spin who fought out a finish with Crazy Spin just getting the upper hand.


I'm hoping that Phil Dennis takes on the same tactics as in his LTO race where he basically attacked from the front. His speed ratings and sectionals suggest to me that he certainly has enough to win this race but it won't be easy. I think his stamina at the end of the race will tell. In my minds eye I have Van Dijk reversing the form with Crazy Spin and he will be the one giving False Id the most to worry about.


18:30 Southwell - False Id 1 pt win bet @ 4/1

18:30 Southwell False Id and Van Dijk 0.5 pt Reverse Forecast.
 

Dave

Colt
Well it wasn't a great day for the blog selections yesterday. Unfortunately, False Id got stuck in the stalls and missed the all important break. From that point on I knew my Goose had been cooked. Van Dijk did exactly as I expected but the winner had certainly improved. I thought False Id ran a good race in getting third having missed the break. I don't think he would have beat the winner regardless based on the visuals from that run.

Lingfield 3:30

Today, I have a selection of interest at Lingfield. I've backed Power Over Me he is a lightly raced 4 year old who was recently imported from Ireland. He won really well in his UK debut at Chelmsford over todays distance beating the odds on favourite Crantock Bay. This was his first run in 84 days and Robyn Brisland had him race fit, he pinged out and made all the running and he looked a decent prospect. He will strip fitter today and he is drawn in 4 which is promising. I'm very hopeful that from this low draw he gets to the front and dictates the pace again. Being in the lead or prominent in these Lingfield sprints is really important. His handicap mark looks very good to me as he beat horses LTO that were rated 72 and 68 and he is in this race under a penalty at 64. The yard are in good form with a 21% winning strike rate in the past 14 days.

Lingfield 3:30 - Power Over Me 1 point win bet @ 6/4
 

Dave

Colt
Well done Dave Dave , nice drift too.
I’m really pleased with the win but I was a bit concerned initially when he never took up the running. They knew they had plenty horse to win with. Great result, that has just been topped off for me in style as I backed Dawson City at 18/1 on the exchange last night and the good fortune was with me today.
 

Dave

Colt
Chelmsford 14:10

I like the look of the Mick Appleby horse Casaruan it’s looking a decent bet at 9/2. Ali Rawlinson takes the ride. The form from 17th December where he took 2nd place over C&D looks interesting. The 3rd place Accomplice won NTO and the winner Lottie Marie finished short head 2nd NTO. The 6th placed has also finished 2nd NTO. It’s got the look of a fairly hot race as far as the form looks. Unfortunately, the selection hasn’t franked the form, although he did run quite well LTO over 7F at the course. That was a class 4 race and he was out of his depth but finished and encouraging 4th. Luke Morris has ridden him in his last two races and now Ali Rawlinson gets the ride again. He is dropping back into a class 6 and he’s a couple of lbs better off and he is a C&D winner.

Chelmsford 14:10 - Casaruan win bet @ 9/2
 

Dave

Colt
Chelmsford 14:10

I like the look of the Mick Appleby horse Casaruan it’s looking a decent bet at 9/2. Ali Rawlinson takes the ride. The form from 17th December where he took 2nd place over C&D looks interesting. The 3rd place Accomplice won NTO and the winner Lottie Marie finished short head 2nd NTO. The 6th placed has also finished 2nd NTO. It’s got the look of a fairly hot race as far as the form looks. Unfortunately, the selection hasn’t franked the form, although he did run quite well LTO over 7F at the course. That was a class 4 race and he was out of his depth but finished and encouraging 4th. Luke Morris has ridden him in his last two races and now Ali Rawlinson gets the ride again. He is dropping back into a class 6 and he’s a couple of lbs better off and he is a C&D winner.

Chelmsford 14:10 - Casaruan win bet @ 9/2
I didn't get to see the race all I could see was the prices changing in running. I need to see that race to understand why the horse didn't finish in the first three. I'm not a bad loser but I'm getting really frustrated with the AW weather results in the higher handicaps. I might just focus on class 4 and below in the future as they are more reliable. Sorry for those that lost money on the selection...
 

Outlander

Gelding
I didn't get to see the race all I could see was the prices changing in running. I need to see that race to understand why the horse didn't finish in the first three. I'm not a bad loser but I'm getting really frustrated with the AW weather results in the higher handicaps. I might just focus on class 4 and below in the future as they are more reliable. Sorry for those that lost money on the selection...
Pulled like a lunatic early, was beaten after a furlong, I’m an in-running punter and I was happy to lay it at 2.21 for a place after about a furlong, was never going to place.
 

PHS

Colt
Chelmsford 14:10

I like the look of the Mick Appleby horse Casaruan it’s looking a decent bet at 9/2. Ali Rawlinson takes the ride. The form from 17th December where he took 2nd place over C&D looks interesting. The 3rd place Accomplice won NTO and the winner Lottie Marie finished short head 2nd NTO. The 6th placed has also finished 2nd NTO. It’s got the look of a fairly hot race as far as the form looks. Unfortunately, the selection hasn’t franked the form, although he did run quite well LTO over 7F at the course. That was a class 4 race and he was out of his depth but finished and encouraging 4th. Luke Morris has ridden him in his last two races and now Ali Rawlinson gets the ride again. He is dropping back into a class 6 and he’s a couple of lbs better off and he is a C&D winner.

Chelmsford 14:10 - Casaruan win bet @ 9/2
Only just seen this. I posted this (my thread is in Tips) too (similar summary) and was also surprised it ran so badly. Now I understand why Frontrunner said there were a few on here backed it.
 
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PHS

Colt
I'm going to have a look through this thread, see if I backed any of yours.

Edit: No, not backed many of the same horses (looking back to 2020). Deinonychus on 7th Oct was the only one I could find; very disappointing that day.
 
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Dave

Colt
Southwell 13:10 - Alexej This very lightly raced 4 year old colt by Muhaarar is trained by John Gosden and ridden by Rab Havlin. The yard are in fine form with 4 winners from 12 runners in the past 14 days for a 33% SR. John Gosden doesn't send many runners to Southwell but when he does you have to pay attention as he has a 38% SR that is 28 wins from 74 runners.

The colt won on debut at Leicester in the heavy over 7F and he has run very credible since on other All Weather courses. The big unknown for me is his ability to handle the fibresand. John Gosden is a fantastic judge and I have backed the horse to win

Southwell 13:10 - Alexej 1 pt win bet @ 5/2 (NAP)

My final bet is a 1pt reverse forecast bet in the Southwell 15:50 on Ornate and Tawny Owl
 

Dave

Colt
Wolves 18:40

Having watched the 12:40 at Wolverhampton yesterday I was very impressed with Eldelbar's win as he travelled very strong throughout and never came off the bridal to coast past his rivals. The winning race time was pretty good and certainly would have put him in contention for today's race even off the weight he carried yesterday which was 9-8. He goes up in grade today and carries 8-12 with a 4lbs penalty. However, the way he won yesterday he looks to have plenty in hand and he is being turned out quickly to strike whilst the iron is hot. After watching the race I message a group of close contacts to say that he had to be followed should he be turned out quickly, my wish looks like it has come true as he is out again today unless he is a late none runner.

The race has some decent sorts in it and Critical Thinking has been running really well of late and the drop back to 7F should suit. I also think that Little Red Socks is a danger of a big price. She bombed at Newcastle LTO but if we go to the race prior to that she ran a big race over C&D and if in that frame of mind she could be some value for a place.

I have backed Eldelbar for the win bet @ 9/4
I have also done a few combinations of Eldelbar, Critical Thinking and Littel Red Socks for the Tricast and Forecast.
 

Emptymind

Filly
I was interested in the reasons for Mujids withdrawal after having a few quid on it at the larger prices. I found the reason given and some interesting information on the surface.

First Mujid- 5:45pm MUJID (IRE), trained by Michael Wigham. Self Cert (Blood Analysis Not Normal)

Next Surface-- Standard to Slow Course last decompacted on Tuesday 16th Feb entire AW surface was ripped up. Next deep work is after this meeting.
 

Dave

Colt
23rd November 2021 - Well it's been awhile since I updated this thread.

Wolverhampton 19:30 - Qaaraat - Is my main bet today, this 6 year old gelding looks to becoming back into form and I believe has a very good chance of taking this evening race if showing further progression in his form. He is proven over C&D and is on a handy mark for today's race. He is currently trading at 7/2 and I'm very hopeful that Cam Hardie put this race to bed as my money is riding on it. Good luck and fingers crossed.

In the 18:30 I have gone with Desert Emperor and Duke of Verona to turn over the favourite. The odds meant I should nick a few bob if either of them win the race and I think one of them should.
 
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