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Today's All Weather Racing

Outlander

Gelding
13:45 Lingfield - I have had a bet on two selections in this race as win bets as the price allows for this and both having winning chances in my opinion.

My first selection is Spurofthemoment who is a 4 year old filly by Brazen Beau. She is trained by Charlie Hills and ridden by Rab Havlin. She raced over C&D for the first 22 days ago and came away as the winner. She and my other selection in this race Smokey both got very good starts. Smokey was a slightly disadvantaged as she was drawn wider and they head into the first bend with Spurofthemoment leading Smokey. They stayed in that ordered into the final bend and as they exited it they came off the line slightly and William Carson was already hard at work on Smokey who looked to hit a bit of a flat spot. Spurofthemoment was travelling really well but the challenge was now from Hollie Doyle on Comeatchoo. Spurofthemoment showed great battling qualities to deny Comeatchoo who finished second and Smokey came with a strong finish to take a very close third spot. The sectionals for this race look above average and the speed ratings back them up.

Both Smokey and Spurofthemoment meet again and this time Smokey is 3lbs better off for a beating of just over 1/2 length. Spurofthemoment has the inside draw in 1 and Smokey again is drawn out wide. I believe we are going to see these two fillies fighting out the finish again and I think Spurofthemoment will prevail but it is going to be very close and the reason whi I have backed both at the prices.

13:45 Lingfield - Spurofthemoment win bet @ 7/2
13:45 Lingfield - Smokey win bet @ 8/1

16:30 Newcastle -
I have had a bet on two selections in this race as win bets as the price allows for this and both having winning chances in my opinion. Ventura Lightning is a 4 year old colt by No Nay Never. He is trained by Richard Fahey and ridden by Tony Hamilton. Tony has ridden him on his 5 turf races winning twice and being placed twice, this will be the first time that he has ridden him on the Newcastle Tapeta surface. The first time the colt raced over C&D was in a class 1 race back in June 2020 where he finished a very good 5th and that is really strong form. Since then he has raced over 7F at the course finishing 3rd in a hot class 2 race. He drops back to 6F today and for me is the class horse in the race. I accept that his last race was a bit of a disaster at Wolverhampton over 7F but we all have off days. I think he better judged on his previous runs at Newcastle.

I also like the look of the Marco Botti trained gelding Futuristic. He is 5 years old and very lightly raced and being out of Shamardal he is suited to the All Weather surface. He has raced over C&D and he has won one and finished second in the other both of those races came back in 2019. This is quite a hot race to make your comeback in but Marco Botti knows what it takes to compete at this level and must feel his gelding is up to it. The current market thinks he has a chance as he is second favourite.

My selections both have to beat the current market favourite Rovaniemi for David Simcock and Jamie Spencer. I think they are both capable of winning this hence the bet.

16:30 Newcastle Ventura Lightning win bet @ 17/2.
16:30 Newcastle Futuristic. win bet @ 9/2.
Genius. Spot on Dave Dave
 

Outlander

Gelding
Ventura drifted so badly on the Betfair exchange it went out to 18 so I nipped back in for some more. I had spent a long time going through that race and thought I had it right but you never can tell. Shame I didn’t do the forecast
Ventura was top rated on my speed figures but I didn’t back it on its own , pure idiot
 

Dave

Colt
I've had a very good day at the office. It got off to a flyer with Smokey winning and I had it at 8/1 and it got better when Venture Lightening won having drifted heavily. Just before the off I went onto Betfair Exchange and couldn't believe it was at 18's so I dipped back in for more. I had also backed it with BOG. Futuristic finished second but I never had then in a forecast..
 

runnerjp

Gelding
What an amazing day Dave!! Great work.

I always think that over time the price you miss on streamers or drifters always evens itself out so just take starting price
 

Dave

Colt
The first race that I'm putting forwards is the 14:40 at Newcastle I have two horses that I've had a bet on and they are as follows: Cityzen Serg is a 4 year old by Raven's Pass who is trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by Thore Hammer Hansen who is claiming 3 lbs. I backed this horse 9 days ago when he won really well at Wolverhampton over 1M 1F. He is proven therefore on the Tapeta surface and we know he won't have any difficulty with the distance. The big unknow is how he will take to Newcastle.

I always pay attention when Richard Hannon sends runners up to Newcastle and that is something worth noting. He has a 21% strike rate with 7 winners from 33 runners. The yard are in form with 2 winners from 13 runners in the past two weeks. Thore has previously won at Newcastle and he has won on the gelding so he should know what is required. The gelding has a solid AW record with form figures of 223115-1 based these figures you can safely assume that you are going to get a decent run for your money. He finished his race off really well LTO.

My next selection in this race is Imperial Command who is also a 4 year old gelding. His sire is War Command and his progeny are suited to racing on the All Weather surfaces. He is trained by Mark Loughnane and ridden by Dougie Costello. The yard are in form having won 2 from 18 in the past two weeks. Dougie has a 100% strike rate on the gelding having had 1 ride on him at the course over 7F which he won.


Newcastle 14:40 - Cityzen Serg 1 pt win bet @ 4/1

Newcastle 14:40 - Imperial Command 1 pt win bet @ 3/1


There maybe more to follow as I go through each race.
 

Dave

Colt
I would like to say without sounding like a whinger that I was so disappointed in my last selections Cityzen Serg and Imperial Command. The Hannon horse ran so bad it wasn't true and for Dougie Costello to apologise for his ride on Imperial Command took the biscuit. Credit to him to hold up his hands and say I got it all wrong, however that was my lost.

I'm hoping that this afternoon I can get back on the winning thread.

3:10 Lingfield - Total Commitment​

Is a 5 year old gelding by Exceed and Excel who is trained by Simon Hodgson and ridden by PJ McDonald. Although he hasn't won at Lingfield he has put in some very good performances. He has finished 2nd on three occasions over C&D in class 2 and 3 handicaps early in the year for previous yard. LTO he was second again over 7F at the course losing to the very useful Fox Duty Free who has since franked the form despite a rise of 6lbs and racing in a class 2. That form looks strong as are the speed figures and sectionals that Total Commitment has achieved in his Lingfield races.

Prior to his last run he was a very good winner at Kempton in a class 3 race over 6F in November 2020 and today he is dropping back down to 6F and in a class 4. I believe he has the strongest chance and will finally get the win he so desires over C&D.

3:10 Lingfield - Total Commitment win bet @ 7/2​

 

Outlander

Gelding
I would like to say without sounding like a whinger that I was so disappointed in my last selections Cityzen Serg and Imperial Command. The Hannon horse ran so bad it wasn't true and for Dougie Costello to apologise for his ride on Imperial Command took the biscuit. Credit to him to hold up his hands and say I got it all wrong, however that was my lost.

I'm hoping that this afternoon I can get back on the winning thread.

3:10 Lingfield - Total Commitment​

Is a 5 year old gelding by Exceed and Excel who is trained by Simon Hodgson and ridden by PJ McDonald. Although he hasn't won at Lingfield he has put in some very good performances. He has finished 2nd on three occasions over C&D in class 2 and 3 handicaps early in the year for previous yard. LTO he was second again over 7F at the course losing to the very useful Fox Duty Free who has since franked the form despite a rise of 6lbs and racing in a class 2. That form looks strong as are the speed figures and sectionals that Total Commitment has achieved in his Lingfield races.

Prior to his last run he was a very good winner at Kempton in a class 3 race over 6F in November 2020 and today he is dropping back down to 6F and in a class 4. I believe he has the strongest chance and will finally get the win he so desires over C&D.

3:10 Lingfield - Total Commitment win bet @ 7/2​

Top rated on my speed ratings, last 2 runs better than anything else in the race, I had a bet on this. Great to see you like this one too Dave Dave . Good luck.
 

tacker

Stallion
I'm with you here daves in that he looks to have the best chance of winning, would have preferred a better draw to be honest and a little worried about HURAIZ who on a good day might be better than these but I think TC can win but i'm not totally committed. good luck.
 

Outlander

Gelding
I'm with you here daves in that he looks to have the best chance of winning, would have preferred a better draw to be honest and a little worried about HURAIZ who on a good day might be better than these but I think TC can win but i'm not totally committed. good luck.
Pun intended ?
 

markfinn

Sire
Been messing about with trainers intentions for a few days - Kempton inform stable G Moore 19.50 Agent of Fortune - pro Jockey booked tonight Tom Quelly Up for 1st public ride - 11 runs without a win brings the 6 year down from 81 to OR 66, a mark where she is capable of winning - DSLR 7 days not normally something I would look for - but I remember ardnehue ardnehue once saying that fillies are def better fresh - can quickly test that -

1610806478614.png
looks good - she has not been of at single odds since last win 7/1 here at the track 1m - dropped in distance - drawn ok - would say she has to a have chance of at least placing tonight.
 

Dave

Colt
16:40 Southwell - You're Cool - This 9 year old Exceed and Excel gelding is just hitting form for Derek Shaw having won LTO at Wolverhampton over 5F. Laura Pearson was onboard for that win and she is back on board again today with a very useful 5Lbs claim. You're cool has one good bit of form over C&D back in March 2020 finishing third off a rating of 75 carrying 10-0. Since then the gelding has plummeted down the weights and today is racing of a rating of 61 and carrying 8-7 and has Laura's allowance. This is a featherlight weight and he is proven on the surface and has recently started to hit form. If he brings anything like the form he ran to back in March 2020 then he is certainly going to be looking for a place in the winners enclosure. The price is currently 8/1 which I believe is good value and is an E/W play.

I also like the look of the favourite Centurion Song but the price has now gone.

16:40 Southwell - You're Cool 1pt E/W at 8/1


19:10 Southwell - Nick Vedder
- Those that follow my blog will know that I really like the recent form of this gelding. LTO he ran over 7F and I believe the jockey left him too much to do and he finished back in 4th. I believe teh jockey was concerned over the distance and was trying to conserve his energy and then come with a late run. In truth 7F isn't his best distance and he is now back over 6F and in very good form. I think the jockey will be much more confident about his ability over this distance and I can't see him losing this race.

I know Dirchill is getting a lot of support in the market but I think that Archimedes is the one that will trouble Nick Vedder the most. Although he was beaten by 4 lengths LTO 4 days ago to Jazz Legend that race was run at some pace and the sectionals look decent. Any repeat of that and he will be out running his price of 10/1. The unknown is the Richard Fahey runner Katelli who on this surface is an unknown quantity. I would prefer to go with proven form, sectionals and speed rating and they all point to Nick Vedder winning this and Archimedes being a danger.

19:10 Southwell - Nick Vedder 1pt win bet at 13/8

Straight Forecast Nick Vedder to beat Archimedes. 0.5 points.
 
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