Thank you mike, much appreciated.T tacker
The going at Southwell today was at it slowest it has ever been -0.21s/f (standard to slow), this might be the contributing factor to why 13yo Alpha Tauri was able to win, what a great result for connections.
Ref 2:45:
MOONRAKER, behind Midnight Malibu and Foolaad when last seen, hugely reversed that form with an impressive success. He's clearly in great form and connections felt the deeper surface helped him.
Ornate kept on going down the middle of the track to claim a well-held second. He probably ran somewhere close to his best. The vet reported that the gelding lost his left fore shoe.
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Mike.
Hi Mike, I’ve got 2 horses come up in my tracker for tomorrow @ Chelmsford 14:00. Don’t do it and Affluence. I just wanted to get your view on this race based on your figures and knowledge.
Morning Mike TheBluesBrother , thanks for the info and it would be really nice to see the old timer Outlaw Torn come back into form. It hasn't looked like it of late but you never know.View attachment 69662
I shall be routing for Outlaw Torn currently at 33/1, if he was suddenly to return to form he would blitz these.
Mike.
Thanks T tacker I was amazed really at how easily Ornate was beaten but the surface was certainly running very slow as confirmed by TheBluesBrother I take nothing away from the winner though...ORNATE was beaten a long way yesterday and did the 5f over 3s slower than when beating CROSS FIRE 13 jan.
I only mention this to highlight the problem in trying to read the form without understanding fully what the surface is offering, this was also highlighted at chelmsford recently with JOEGOGO. We can study form all we want and try and make sense of it but until this awkward anomaly is sorted out i think we will struggle........AS IF WE WERE'NT ALREADY.
Looking at your figures you have the top 3 horses all with higher CLASS/SF figures than their OR, does that mean that these Horses based on your figures are well handicapped?
Thanks Mike, +5 above the OR is a nice bit to have in hand...I just updated the post, i.e Steel Helmut +5
TheBluesBrother nice shout on Outlaw Torn especially if backed for the place.View attachment 69662
Looking at the figures Steel Helmet is +5 over his OR
I shall be routing for Outlaw Torn currently at 33/1, if he was suddenly to return to form he would blitz these.
Mike.
Hi mick I'm not his greatest fan but he appears to get on with this horse of late. At Newcastle in particular I really like Callum Rodriguez as a jockey. He seems to get a good tune out of his rides and he does well at this track. It think has a fair chance with Peashooter in the 17:45, the horse is 2/5 C&D and we know he is in good form. This is such a hard race though as there are a number that could win this and it might just be that the best Jockey on the day gets the win. Another very good Jockey at this course is Josephine Gordon.Dave I have no worthwhile thoughts on the race, but Re Cam Hardie i never rated him as an apprentice but feel he has matured into a good senior and seldom feel unhappy these days when he is on top of one i wish to back.
Hi Mike TheBluesBrother I have also had a good look at Gentleman and I totally agree that in the past he has the figures and the class to win this. However, his recent form hasn't been great although he has raced in higher class than this. He is proven over 7F but not at the course. As just mentioned I really like Josephine Gordon at this track and feel if he is still capable of reproducing anything like what he achieved in 2017 then he would most probably win this, it is just the question of his form and whether he is still capable especially as he is carrying the most weight and the others are running off featherweights.Dave
I just took a look at the Newcastle's 17:15.
This is framed as a class 5 handicap, looking at the weight's of Bobby Joe Leg and Grey Destiny, they both appear to have gone up in class by 10lbs which I thought was odd until I looked at Gentleman, who in 2017 was running of an OR of 96 in class 2 races.
Gentleman has the back speed figures and class to win this race.
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Mike.
The market isn't looking great for Grey Destiny as he is weakening and just about everything else is shortening. The course record isn't great but the horse has been improving in his last 3 races. I guess we are just going to have to wait and see what happens.Hi Dave my own ratings fully agree with you about Grey Destiny. Not sure why he has been so weak in the market which has to be a concern also his record at Newcastle isn't great with 0 wins from 15 starts Interesting to note there has been some money for Gentlemen with TheBluesBrother above comments cant help but feel this may not be the day for Grey Destiny.