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tacker The answer to the question is exactly the same as it would have been had your question been "how was Qaysar 9/4 in your tissue but came home at 12s (10s SP)?"
Its what the combined ratings are telling me should be the price, nothing more, nothing less. See how my own custom HRB rating sorted the horses out in the first instance. As you can see, Sinjaari is 20th out of the 22 here. Additionally on RPRs he ran a 69 last time out in the Rowley Cup, a crap performance, and when the numbers are crunched taking account of RPRs and the HRB ordering, that's the reason why he's 66/1. He was never 16/1 by any calculation.
So when the market says he's 14/1, what's behind that? Well I've seen he was gelded after his Rowley Cup run, but do I need to spend a whole heap of time delving into all that, do I just take the view the market is about right and any reds or greens that result, just take them out and adjust the rest of the field, or do I just adjust his likely price and risk throwing everything else all the further out. I could also just say any horse who is gelded is 5% underestimated automatically by the numbers, but that will also knacker up a lot of other calculations and could inflate them unnecessarily. If 100 horses are gelded and I'm wrong every time we'll end up finding something to work with.
As I've said at the beginning of the thread, and in other posts since, we are just testing things right now and no real money is going into it (and may never actually do, because I am not that bothered about betting, the numbers are what offer me the fun and if I did it would be a quid here and there if not at the track). I don't need to throw the baby out with the bathwater over one race (itself a 22 runner handicap where, in fairness, the top in the tissue did actually come third), and as Outlander points to, we might suddenly hit a barrage of red horses winning, and the greens just not lifting a hoof - because we got it wrong. We've just had a <20% red winning easily on the first tissue today.
Once we know where we are getting it wrong, and why, maybe that's the time to start making some adjustments along the lines of the above. It'll get some wrong, it'll get some right and in other cases, it will be a complete mess.
It may well be that the ratings could throw out his Sinjarri's Newmarket run 69, but as you'll appreciate I could also throw out a 69 by something else and a real outsider then suddenly has a chance far less realistic than my price might suggest. We will look at whether adjusting the ratings a bit could accommodate that and I have ideas on how to do significantly better with HRB ratings through the various available tools but that's another thread, possibly.
I'm hoping this forum isn't one of those that expects posters just to be sitting about to reply immediately. It would have been nice to have the opportunity to answer; after all, I've waited pretty patiently for others to comment on this thread as its progressed.
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Outlander has of course given a large part of the answer.
More Handicaps to follow shortly.