AustinDillon75
Colt
Probably threads everywhere discussing this my first post since I don't know when, but after years of trying speed ratings, handicap ratings, pace etc, it dawns that I'm probably better trying to forecast prices and seeing where it goes from there. So I've done a spreadsheet which has given me a formula for calculating prices, based around 11 years of flat/AW Racing Post RPRs.
In essence, I put in an RPR of my own for how they might run today and when all in place, it calculates a price for me. The general calculation is I think it to be 6 RPR pts ahead of the average for a 10 horse race, it would be around 9/2. If its bang on the average, it'd be 9/1.
The table below was for the 1200 at Bath and my odds are on the left, with the morning odds on the right. I've also put a HRB rating to the right of that and essentially its to try and corroborate some of my thinking, if I see a big price one near the top and HRB says the same it has to be worth a closer look. This race was actually won by Indian Sounds, shorter than my tissue price and top HRB rated.
Zulu Zander was 9th ofthe 10 on my rating but top tissue price - he ran second as it turns out at 18/1. I might have done a small ew but its RPR for me was inflated by its 5th and 6th last runs respectively so going forward I might have assigned it a higher price than what is effectively 9/2 below.
The first four in my tissue were all the same the first four home so its an interesting start. I might never get the first four again!
Here's the one for the 1305
This isn't about winners its about having some sort of price and then working backwards/forwards from there. Still in infancy this. Comments and questions welcomed.
In essence, I put in an RPR of my own for how they might run today and when all in place, it calculates a price for me. The general calculation is I think it to be 6 RPR pts ahead of the average for a 10 horse race, it would be around 9/2. If its bang on the average, it'd be 9/1.
The table below was for the 1200 at Bath and my odds are on the left, with the morning odds on the right. I've also put a HRB rating to the right of that and essentially its to try and corroborate some of my thinking, if I see a big price one near the top and HRB says the same it has to be worth a closer look. This race was actually won by Indian Sounds, shorter than my tissue price and top HRB rated.
Zulu Zander was 9th ofthe 10 on my rating but top tissue price - he ran second as it turns out at 18/1. I might have done a small ew but its RPR for me was inflated by its 5th and 6th last runs respectively so going forward I might have assigned it a higher price than what is effectively 9/2 below.
1200 BATH | HRBFULL | ||
Zulu Zander | 5.71 | 10 | 9 |
Able Kane | 6.60 | 15 | 6 |
Autumn Trail | 6.66 | 7 | 3 |
Indian Sounds | 6.81 | 3.25 | 1 |
Giovanni Tiepolo | 8.71 | 8 | 4 |
Chasanda | 9.26 | 34 | 7 |
Bezzas Lad | 10.13 | 12 | 8 |
Bluebell Time | 10.44 | 12 | 5 |
Spurofthemoment | 10.67 | 7 | 2 |
Lady Fanditha | 15.37 | 8 | 4 |
The first four in my tissue were all the same the first four home so its an interesting start. I might never get the first four again!
Here's the one for the 1305
1305 BATH | HRBFULL | ||
A Go Go | 5.45 | 21 | 5 |
Cappananty Con | 5.70 | 3.5 | 1 |
Gherkin | 7.08 | 4.5 | 4 |
Vincenzo Coccotti | 7.14 | 15 | 2 |
Port Noir | 7.61 | 13 | 9 |
Kingmans Spirit | 8.24 | 8.5 | 6 |
Leo Minor | 10.01 | 6.5 | 3 |
Peggotty | 13.52 | 26 | 10 |
Tomahawk Ridge | 18.59 | 21 | 11 |
Sugar Plum Fairy | 19.47 | 34 | 8 |
Lethal Blast | 22.75 | 15 | 7 |
Numinous | 41.40 | 15 | 12 |
This isn't about winners its about having some sort of price and then working backwards/forwards from there. Still in infancy this. Comments and questions welcomed.