• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Timeform Speed rating method

The Hare

The Hare

Mare
The Hare The Hare

Calculating a set of standard times is a full time job, and here is an example of the problems you will come across,
I will explain using the 8f trip at Kempton AW.

The RP standard time for the 8f trip at Kempton is currently 96.60s, they have recently done some work on the surface as they
have been recently giving out the official going as Standard to slow.

Taking the best 25 times prior to 2015, I calculated the standard time using the 15th percentile to be 96.30s, and then took the
best 25 times from 2015, and I found that the standard time to be 97.60s, the track surface from it's concept has slowed up by 1.3s.

In an ideal world when calculating standard times, I would like to use the best 25 times for each distance, but just in case I have to use
a smaller sample I could make an adjustment to the percentile rank.

Using the standard time of 96.30s as an example:

Sample size of 25, use 15th percentile = 96.30s
Sample size of 20, use 20th percentile = 96.29s
Sample size of 15, use 25th percentile = 96.28s

Going back to the RP standard time of 96.60s, do you adjust the standard time to the current slow conditions, I would leave it as it stands,
and adjust the the race times with the going allowance.

Standard times:
Virgin Media Cloud

Good luck with your standard times.

Mike.
 
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