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Thoughts and selections

Still no main bets, Zambella (3:20 Leicester) will probably win but at odds of 2/5 I didn’t think it was worth getting involved so left it alone.

In the 5:00 Kempton, I don’t think the veteran Chetan is without hope. He is running in his 99th race, and recent form is poor as he hasn’t managed to get within 10 lengths of winner in 4 races since last April. But this looks a weak race and he is on a good mark. Only 2 from 30 for Tony Carroll, including 1 from 17 on AW, that AW win came off 12 lbs higher mark just over 3 years ago so he is due a win. Has a good record at this course, with 6 of his 12 career wins coming here, 4 wins & 7 places from 16 races when he was drawn in lower half like today. Carroll/Mullen struck with another veteran Red Alert @ 40/1 last week.

Carroll’s other runner in race, Too Shy Shy, has shortened into 7/2 on only her 2nd start for trainer, but her recent form is not much better than Chetan’s who is 40/1. It’s only a fun bet, I am literally only putting a couple of quid e/w on it, so won’t record this bet win or lose.
 
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Yeah, looked at that race last night and noticed Chetan had dropped to a low mark but the big stand-out was a pro-jockey taking over from Mollie Phillips. That often makes a difference I've noticed. However, Andrew Mullen is a disappointing 1-16 (and only 2 places) for Carroll in the last 2 years, so maybe not this time. Edit: just noticed the 1 was this year!

I backed Agent Of Fortune in a double with Enfranchise (12:35) before the Fav for this race came out. If the first one wins, I may cash out now the price has been ruined. Edit: Although I see I have nearly 5/2 after a 30% R4 (currently 6/4), so maybe I'll just lay the stake off.



I also like the US bred Daafy in this race as it ran well at Sou two runs back after a long absence, held up last and came with a good run until petering out inside the final furlong maybe due to lack of fitness (else didn't quite stay which would be the worry, but I wouldn't expect one of Shaw's to be fit FTO).
 
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Yeah, I thought she was travelling like a well handicapped horse off the home turn at Ling last time and also goes well at Kem (possibly unlucky to find one too good coming from off the pace last Nov, with the rest all well beaten).

The other thing that caught me eye was her record in Dec/Jan;

Dec 3-3-5
Jan 4-5-8

Mar to Oct 0 wins from about 20 runs (Edit, that's AW runs only)

Pretty impressive I thought.
 
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Lingfield Park, 12 Jan 22
Race 1 - 12:35pm
THE MANSIONBET PROUD PARTNERS OF THE AWC HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 5)
Following the race, Andrew Breslin reported that ENFRANCHISE (IRE), placed third, was denied a clear run inside the final furlong.

Yeah, but why didn't he switch it off the rail immediately after the home turn instead of running into Prince Rock's backside!
 
Mick Appleby is 0-11 when a 7lb claimer takes over from a pro-jockey on his 2TO AW switchers and only 1-21 if you include 5lb claimers as well, so I'm willing to take on his short-priced Fav Mawkeb in the 16:50 Ncl. He was pushed along from a long way out over 7f here last time and it was only the winner tiring in front that made him look like he was closing at the finish. He was coming back from an absence but Appleby's gelded switchers are usually ready to run.

The one I like is Engles Rock-12/1. She won very comfortably here in Oct. That was only a 0-65 race but she put in a similar performance NTO in a Cl5 race (Median OR 66) only finding Proclaimer who was racking up a 4 timer, too good for her. She was hampered NTO then ran as if a non-stayer over 10f, so she hasn't really done a lot wrong. There are no recognised leaders in this race, which might be less of a problem for her than some of the others as she usually settles well at the back of the field then finds plenty in the last 2f.

Kentuckyconnection is a completely unpredictable horse, but he was won 4 times at Ncl at 6f, 7f and a mile. His wins have come off increasingly higher marks each time; 63, 65, 72 and 76. After some poor form he's dropped down to 68 and is re-united with Harrison Shaw, who won on him in March last year (over C&D). I've had just a small saver on this one at 28/1. Smart has a surprising 19% strike rate in Jan.
 
I've also had a tiny EW double on Going Underground (stepping up to 10f) - 14:50 Ncl and Engles Rock, as WH are paying 1/5th Odds 3 places on the 14:50 (7 run). Hopefully no nr's in the 16:50 (8 run).

Going Underground's dam won over 10f on the AW. He seems to be keeping on well at the finish over 8f but doesn't quite have the pace to get competitive over that trip.

The EW double pays over 100/1.
 
Good luck with your bets tomorrow P PHS

My fun bet Chetan ran a bit better than his finishing position of 7th. Made the right decision to swerve Zambella as she got beaten at very short odds at Leicester. Tomorrow’s decision has been a harder one as it’s a much bigger price, but I have also decided to swerve this, hopefully it will prove to be the right decision.

My possible for tomorrow was Sayar (3:40 Catterick), an ex- Aga Khan horse and one of the last few Azamours still racing. He won his first two hurdles starts for Willie Mullins, including a Grade 3 novice, but that was back in 2017 and he has failed to win since. 17 lbs lower now than when joining Nick Kent in 2020, has placed on 4 of last 6 starts at big prices (150/1 twice, 25/1 & 40/1). But he is in same class (4) as his last few runs, and there are a couple of unexposed hurdlers at top of betting in this race which stops me from backing him as I have feeling he could run well again for a place but winning might prove difficult against younger horses.

Already looked at Friday, and there is nothing of interest for me, so no bet before Saturday at earliest. I am ok with that at the moment as have managed to swerve a few losers in last few days and not itching to have a bet yet.
 
Frontrunner said:
Already looked at Friday, and there is nothing of interest for me, so no bet before Saturday at earliest. I am ok with that at the moment as have managed to swerve a few losers in last few days and not itching to have a bet yet.
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Me too on both counts, indeed this YTD despite doing plenty of looking i have yet to have a bet with the one positive involved being at least i am not losing any money. No one can force us to bet and this is one of the few constant edges.?
 
I've also had a tiny EW double on Going Underground (stepping up to 10f) - 14:50 Ncl and Engles Rock, as WH are paying 1/5th Odds 3 places on the 14:50 (7 run). Hopefully no nr's in the 16:50 (8 run).

GU ran ok until the last furlong. Either didn't stay or she asked it to do a bit too much early on. Will drop again and could still be of interest in a Cl6 off 60. Surprisingly well backed 16/1>13/2.
 
Frontrunner said:
there are a couple of unexposed hurdlers at top of betting in this race which stops me from backing him as I have feeling he could run well again for a place but winning might prove difficult against younger horses.
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If only predictions could always work out like this, Sayar ran well for 2nd but the short priced favourite was too good. Nothing gained, but happy to have swerved Sayar.
 
Just to say, although B365 sometimes get the prices wrong, they're generally more right than some of the others, so it's well worth looking out for a difference of opinion. On Engles they opened 7/1 when almost all the others were 12/1. By morning, it was a general 7/1 then drifted out to around 10/1 near race time.
 
PHS said:
Just to say, although B365 sometimes get the prices wrong, they're generally more right than some of the others, so it's well worth looking out for a difference of opinion. On Engles they opened 7/1 when almost all the others were 12/1. By morning, it was a general 7/1 then drifted out to around 10/1 near race time.
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At least I can get on with them no longer able to with Hills !!
 
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