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Thoughts and selections

Another poor selection, Kitty Galore did lead but weakened very quickly after she was headed and pulled up. More than a week since any returns on my bets, I will continue to try for now but with a reduced stake.

2:55 Pontefract - Here And Now, 0.6 pt win @ 7/4

Stag Horn was easy winner of this race last year, but he hasn’t been in same kind of form this season and as he has to carry the maximum penalty of 8 lbs, I am opposing with him what looks the obvious alternative in Here And Now.

Selection is favoured by race conditions as he is getting 8 lbs from a horse that is rated only 5 lbs higher than him. He has had his problems too, having raced just 4 times in last 3 years but ran ok after latest absence of a year last time at Salisbury by finishing 3rd of 4, the first two were rated 107 & 114 so he couldn’t really have been expected to do any more.

Other 3 in the race are rated 85, 75 & 65, so have a lot of work to do at these weights though Notation could run well, it does mainly concern the top two in betting.
 
Here And Now drifted to 3/1 and was first one beaten to finish a distant last, favourite won easily.

3:23 Worcester - Hooky Street, 0.1 pt win @ 20/1, 0.1 pt to finish in first 3 @ 7/2, 4 to be placed (0.2 pt @ 9/4, 0.2 pt @ bfsp) - total staked on race 0.6 pt

No real form to go on as it’s mostly newcomers, and this one is a bit of long shot but I am hoping he will run well. This is Robin Dickin’s first runner at Worcester this year, but he has a good record at the course. Admittedly all 11 of his winners here have come over jumps, in bumpers he is 0 from 10 with only one placer @ 33/1. His overall record in bumpers isn’t great, 3 wins and 8 places from 106 runners on debut but considering that average price of his newcomers is above 20/1 it’s not too bad either. I am not expecting a win, just hoping he can finish in first 4.

Selection has had a couple of runs in points but fell both times. Pedigree looks ok, dam was unraced but related to couple of bumper winners Fleeting Chance & Academy Sir Harry.

Even getting a place might not be easy as some top stables are represented here. Fergal O’Brien has had 16 winners at Worcester this year (from 54 runners for +46 LSP), including 3 from 7 in bumpers, so his runner Chancycourt is likely to be popular. Paul Nicholls newcomer is also likely to run well, Nicholls won this with Enrillo in 2018, who has gone on to do well in Graded company. So, not an easy race but I think those at top of betting are a bit short so looking for value.
 
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Thanks P PHS, Sean Sean

5:05 Newton Abbot - Great Ocean, 0.2 pt win @ 5/2, 0.4 pt in without Hard Frost market @ 5/4

Reasoning to follow...

I hope I don’t regret changing my mind, as initially I only planned to back this for a place only but with going changing to heavy and a number of non runners resulting in price shortening has made me change my bet. Selection’s sire Great Pretender has an excellent record on heavy going as shown below. The 26 wins have come from 21 different horses out of a total of 46 that have run on heavy, that is a great win rate.

E38ACE73-BFD1-4980-AE91-08A03C359690.jpeg

He has already had a win in point to points in Ireland, and was bought for £62,000 after that win. Pedigree looks ok, half-brother Grey Diamond, who was a winner on debut in a bumper, went on to win over fences (OR 128).

The favourite Hard Frost for Paul Nicholls has a good chance too, having placed 3rd on debut over this CD in April. Mick Channon is 2 from 2 on bumper debuts at Newton Abbot, both those winners were strongly fancied in betting so his runner maybe worth a market check. David Pipe, who had the runner up in this race last year, also sends a newcomer, so this might not be a bad race but hopefully Great Ocean will run well.
 
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2:17 Galway - Tesseract, 0.3 pt win @ 5/1 & Ennemi Public, 0.4 pt to finish in first 4 @ 7/4 (total staked on race 0.7 pt)

Giving myself couple of chances in this. Tesseract hasn’t won for almost 4 years but he looks well handicapped and to be fair he hasn’t had much racing in last couple of years. He won a beginners chase over this distance at the Galway festival in 2017, and ran well again to finish 4/16 in handicap chase at 2019 festival from a mark of 130. He has only run 5 times since then and his mark has dropped to 116. Ran ok last time at Tipperary (17f), returning from another break (3 months), to finish a close 2nd. 10yo now but I think he still retains enough ability, and could run well back up in trip.

Other one I have backed is Ennemi Public for a place, not expecting this to win but I think he has place chances. He only won once from 17 runs for Gigginstown, but placed another 7 times. Had 3 runs in beginners chases finishing 2/6, 5/10 & 3/6, and now makes handicap debut for his new trainer, form is not too bad and I think he was overpriced at 40/1 earlier, now 16/1 which is still ok. Jockey Gavin Brouder is 3 from 21 (3 others placed) for +3 LSP at Galway, and although he is 0 from 20 in last month, 7 of the 20 finished in first half of field despite average price of his rides being close to 25/1, I am hoping he can finish in first half of field here too.
 
7:00 Newcastle - James Watt, 0.2 pt e/w @ 11/1 & Soapys Sister, 0.2 pt win @ 18/1 (total staked 0.6 pt)

Couple of small bets, not confident about either but I think the prices make it worth taking a chance. James Watt looks on a good mark judged on his 3yo form when he was rated in mid 80s, and he is only 1 lb higher than his last win in July (at York). He has run 3 times over this CD, and went close on two of those occasions from marks or 71 & 73 earlier in the year so does need to improve a bit on those but first of those runs was after a break. Ben Robinson has ridden him twice before and got a win and 2nd. Queen of Kalahari was 4 1/2 lengths behind him at York and is 8 lbs better off, she should run well too but weight difference alone shouldn’t be enough to turn that form around. Both have a good draw.

My other selection is bit more risky, as Soapys Sister does need to improve, but after just 7 runs improvement is still possible especially with the first time visor today. She was well beaten on only previous run over this CD, but with first 3 finishers drawn on other side I think draw may have played some part. Again her draw in stall 6 today is not so good, but return of Callum Rodriguez is a positive. In last 3 meetings at Newcastle, Rodriguez has scored 6 wins from just 9 rides. Rodriguez/Dalgleish combination’s record at Newcastle is very good too as shown below.



Favourite Glorious Rio also has a chance, he has been much improved with 5 wins already this year but does need to prove himself in this class so price of 13/8 looks silly, which has made me think there maybe value elsewhere.
 
Thanks P PHS , yes that’s how it has been for me last two weeks, I keep making the wrong final decision with my selections or type of bet. Reason I didn’t go each way on it was that I find this trainer very difficult to predict (can’t remember the last time I backed one of his winners lol), I was thinking either his horse will win or run a stinker, got that wrong.

Other horse, James Watt finished only 7th.
 
Frontrunner said:
Thanks P PHS , yes that’s how it has been for me last two weeks, I keep making the wrong final decision with my selections or type of bet. Reason I didn’t go each way on it was that I find this trainer very difficult to predict (can’t remember the last time I backed one of his winners lol), I was thinking either his horse will win or run a stinker, got that wrong.

Other horse, James Watt finished only 7th.
Click to expand...
Very difficult in these races at the moment did well to spot Soapy I would not have given it second look and for that matter also the winner - as mick says its the info in between the bare results that counts - shows deeper research process.
 
Thank you dave58 dave58 , mick mick , markfinn markfinn

Hopefully the winners will come soon, probably won’t be today as I am taking on a 22-runner 0-70 handicap, but let’s see.

3:30 Curragh - Dha Leath, 0.3 pt each way @ 8/1 (most bookies paying 5 places)

Dha Leath won her first race on 15th attempt at Navan earlier in the month, but she wasn’t winning out of turn as she had run some fair races in defeat. Despite not running too badly, her handicap mark had dropped to 59 having been in mid 70s at start of season. Admittedly, last race lacked depth but the first 3 pulled well clear of the rest so the 8 lbs rise she has been given is not impossible to overcome. Chacha Dancer was half length behind her in 2nd and is 3 lbs better off, but Dha Leath won despite being interfered by the runner up as Chacha Dancer drifted badly into her. Chacha Dancer is also pretty consistent, and it maybe interesting that Wayne Lordan takes over from 7 lbs claimer today, but I just prefer Dha Leath.

One possible negative is that she ran poorly (beaten 15 lengths) on only previous run here at the Curragh in May, but it was a much better class race, winner of which has gone on to win a Group 3.

Not a lot of data for draw bias in such big fields, but of 36 handicaps run over this CD with field size of 20+, 26 have been won by horses in lower half of the draw (although only 1 winner from stall 1) compared to only 10 winners from upper half of draw. Dha Leath is drawn in 1, Chacha Dancer in 17, which was another reason for me preferring the former. I should mention that ATR draw index is saying that high numbers are favoured.
 
F Frontrunner Draw stats can do your nut in and making the call is frequently not helped by apparent conflict as per your ATR observation. RI have a good facility with the ability to look at different filters and although i do not subscribe to HRB i expect that they offer likewise but i also find that all can sometimes prove as much hindrance as help.

When there is agreement and our selection is said to have a Neg draw then most often the market takes note so if you can find justification for still betting then your prospects of obtaining a value price increase. A valuable lesson i learnt from another member ( mlmrob mlmrob ) is to always consider the more recent stats as well as the longer term all in numbers.

I also like the old racing adages with one which comes to mind being " A good jockey can beat a poor draw ". Certainly when i have a possible bet which the basic stats ( and the press ) are saying is badly drawn i always go in for a much deeper look before deciding to swerve for this reason.

PS : You have made a good case for Dha Leath and best of for the outcome.
 
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