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Thoughts and selections

2:20 Epsom - 1 pt win on Goldspur @ 4/5, 0.1 pt reverse forecast Goldspur/Austrian Theory (total staked on race 1.2 pts)

Short price but there is plenty to like about Goldspur, who won very impressively on debut 11 days ago. Whilst it’s difficult to know the strength of that race as all but one were newcomers and none have run since then, Goldspur couldn’t have done it any more easily winning by 6 and half lengths. That race at Sandown has been won by some good horses in past, including St Leger winner Masked Marvel and other top stayers like Dartmouth and Duke Of Venice.

Godolphin won this race in 2009 with Zeitoper, who had also won the same Sandown race on his debut.

Pedigree looks pretty good too, dam Pomology won her first 4 starts including the Lancashire Oaks, and suffered her only defeat when narrowly beaten in Prix Vermeille (Group 1).

Mark Johnston has won two of the last 3 runnings of this race, and as his runner Austrian Theory is the only one not carrying a penalty I see him as the main danger. According to pedigree, he shouldn’t have a problem staying this distance.
 
5:30 Newcastle - Hooked On You, 0.2 pt win @ 15/2, 0.2 pt to finish in first 2 @ 5/2

Michael Stoute has a very good record with 2yo’s at Newcastle, but I think that has been factored into the prices and his runner Chichen Itza is way too short at 5/4, not saying she can’t win but I think there could be some value in opposing her. There is not much between Aunt Bethany and Persist on their 2nd & 3rd at Salisbury last time, both could run well but I am taking a small chance on Karl Burke newcomer Hooked On You despite the market drift.

Burke can get winners on debut, he has a pretty good record here too. He is 4 from 12 (another 4 placed) for +27 LSP on 2yo debuts in Newcastle maidens over last 5 years. One little negative maybe why Clifford Lee is not riding. PJ McDonald is only 1 from 30 on Burke’s newcomers.

Selection has a nice pedigree, she is half sister to top class Alcohol Free, winner of 3 Group 1s so far including this season’s Sussex Stakes. AF had won on her 2yo debut, and another of their siblings Johan Zoffany was narrowly beaten on 2yo debut. Sire has a 15% strike rate (11 from 72, +29 LSP) on Tapeta at Newcastle, so I don’t think surface will be a problem.

Only a small bet as the three in front of her in betting have all shown good form, so even getting a place might not be easy.
 
Hooked On You never had a chance after expending too much energy early on, and I think she finished last in the end. Race went to form, with Aunt Bethany finishing about same distance ahead of Persist as she had at Salisbury. Again identified the weak morning favourite, yet nothing to show for it due to wrong final choice of selection.
 
8:30 Wolverhampton - Dacesa, 0.2 pt e/w @ 14/1, 0.4 pt to finish in first 4 @ 15/8 (total stake 0.8 pt)

Reasoning to follow...

15 runs without a win since winning on her debut in Ireland, and 0 from 11 since joining David Evans but handicap mark looks competitive judged on more than one of those efforts. Has been tried over a range of distances from 6 furlongs to a mile, but best efforts appear to have been over this distance. 1 length 2nd off 3 lbs higher at Kempton in March, 1 and half length 4th off 4 lbs here in April both give her a good chance in this. Even 4th place from 7 lbs higher on stable debut at Newcastle in January doesn’t look bad.

Only 7th of 8 over 7f here 10 days ago, but wasn’t beaten that far, and the drift from 11/1 to 16/1 before the off suggests perhaps she needed the run after 4 months off. Has been dropped 2 lbs after that run.

Jockey booking looks a positive too, Clifford Lee is 9 from 56 (+16.75 LSP) when riding Evans’ horses for first time.
 
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Thanks mick mick

Dacesa ran well to finish a close 3rd, I thought she had actually got 2nd but missed out by a nose, that was a bit unlucky as I had done a little forecast with Hugh Taylor’s selection which won.

Profit of 0.91 pt on the day, just pleased to stop the losing run.

Edit: correction, it’s 1.11 profit
 
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Thanks Sean Sean, mick mick

2:50 Catterick - 0.5 pt win on Nuance @ 11/8

Only a small bet as I am not too confident despite it being a short price. Last run at Newbury was a little bit disappointing, but there is every indication that was a much stronger race than this. I think this comes down to class vs weight. He has to concede 11 lbs and upwards (though jockey’s 5 lbs claim cancels some of that out) to all his rivals, but he is potentially better class than these, certainly the pedigree suggests so. You don’t see many of Frankel’s progeny running at Catterick, there has been only one other in last 1 year and although it got beaten at odds on, before that Frankel’s progeny at Catterick was 4 wins from 6 and another placed at big price.

Nuance’s dam Intimation was a consistent performer and winner at up to Group 3 level. So clearly, pedigree has played a part in my decision to back this as I feel he could be better than he has shown so far, and he should run well if he settles better than last time.
 
Thanks Chesham Chesham, E Elite

Elite said:
Well done again, I haven't backed anybof yours for a few days come back a d back your placer at 100/30 and today's at 11/8....must be a lucky Omen 😊
Click to expand...
E Elite, I hope you keep backing them then :D

2:57 Salisbury - Wind Your Neck In, 0.2 pt win @ 15/4, 0.6 pt to finish in first 3 @ 8/15

Reasoning to follow...

This is usually a good race (was run as a maiden till 2015) to watch for horses that go on to do well over middle distances as 3yo’s, and it has been won by some good horses. Recent renewals have thrown a mixed bunch, one of the divisions last season had Mohaafeth & Aleas finish 3rd & 2nd who have both done well in higher class. Israr (same ownership as Mohaafeth) is likely to be another horse to follow, but even though he has drifted a bit from earlier 8/13 it is still too short a price imo so I want to take it on as it won’t be easy giving 6 lbs to what is probably a decent opposition including newcomers from some top 2yo stables like Balding & Beckett etc.

Wind Your Neck In has run both his races over this CD, finishing 3rd & 2nd. Last run he went very close and lost out after going 1.02 in running, there were 9 lengths back to the 3rd horse and another 7 back to the 4th. So it gives a very solid look to the form, and it’s possible to think of him as a ‘winner without a penalty’ in here. Different going today, last two runs were good to firm and good, today it’s soft but I don’t think that will be a problem judging by pedigree as there are soft going winners in family including his grand dam Silk Blossom who won the Lowther (Group 2) on soft.

I think he should be in first 3 at least, not confident about win as there are some unknown newcomers in there from stables (Charlton, Balding, Beckett) that have good records in this race.

Only one filly has won this race since 2003, that was Look Here for Ralph Beckett in 2007 who went on to win the Oaks the following season. Since then only one other filly has placed, Cubanita also for Beckett who went on to win Group 3 races. So it usually takes a very good filly to beat the colts in a race like this, for that reason I feel Discretion’s price is too short, if I was going to back a newcomer I would have gone with either Juan Bermudez or Quavering, but as ever market is an important guide to chance of the newcomers.

Not a race to get involved in too heavily, but one to watch with an eye to next season. I hope WYNI will be in first 3 at least, nice if he can win.
 
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