doomster
Dam
Well deserved winner
F
Frontrunner.
I'm now on way to the local beer garden courtesy of your selection.
Well done and thanks
I'm now on way to the local beer garden courtesy of your selection.
Well done and thanks
Thoughts and selections
- Thread starter Frontrunner
- Start date
dave58
Administrator
Just poured myself a cool one. By the sounds of it you are having similar temperatures to us at the moment, so enjoy!
Well done F Frontrunner
Frontrunner
Stallion
Thank you
dave58 ,
mick ,
doomster,
E
Elite
Themaxwecan backed into 7/4 before the off and held on from staying on Indigo Times who also impressed. I wish I had staked more confidently, but that’s how I am, it affects my confidence not just in myself but also in the game if one of mine runs really badly like yesterday and I can’t find a reason for the poor run.
Oh and my feeling was right about Mark Johnston having a good day, 4 winners out of 7 for him so far, unfortunately I left his first two winners out of my multiple. I can still get a nice enough profit if Whitefeathersfall wins at Windsor to give me a treble.
dave58 ,
mick ,
doomster,
E
Elite Themaxwecan backed into 7/4 before the off and held on from staying on Indigo Times who also impressed. I wish I had staked more confidently, but that’s how I am, it affects my confidence not just in myself but also in the game if one of mine runs really badly like yesterday and I can’t find a reason for the poor run.
Oh and my feeling was right about Mark Johnston having a good day, 4 winners out of 7 for him so far, unfortunately I left his first two winners out of my multiple. I can still get a nice enough profit if Whitefeathersfall wins at Windsor to give me a treble.
mlmrob
Sire
Great work as always
F
Frontrunner
greyabbey
Colt
Good work
F
Frontrunner. Have you ever had a look at how you're doing if you'd just done 1pt win? Interesting to get an assessment of your staking.
nicksar
Dam
Well done
F
Frontrunner
Sean
Sire
well done
F
Frontrunner
Frontrunner
Stallion
Thank you
mlmrob ,
greyabbey ,
nicksar ,
Sean
greyabbey . Earlier in the year I was doing just that, backing all my selections to 1 pt level stakes. From January to May, I had 53 bets and made just over 17 pts profit at 1 pt level stakes, those figures look good but don’t tell the whole story. I was having long losing runs, sometimes lasting weeks and that was becoming very stressful and making me lose my discipline. I took a break from betting for whole of June to assess my selection methods and staking.
I decided that I needed to cut down the losing runs to reduce the stress by trying to win more often even if it meant I would be winning lesser amount. So that’s what I have been doing since July. Since 1st of July, with the new approach, my profit is currently at +9.82 pts from 38.70 pts staked, I am having a lot more bets than I was earlier in the year - total of 48 bets since July. If I backed all these to win at 1 pt level stakes then I would have actually made a loss of just over 5 pts (-5.01 to be precise). But that is probably not an accurate reflection as many of these selections were mainly place fancies rather than win, so if I was backing win only then I would have probably left these out. The ones I picked as win only show a better return of +13.50 pts profit from 24 bets at level stakes (these are all priced under 5/1), so I have done better with shorter priced ones but it’s too small a sample size to draw any firm conclusions. I think I will continue with the cautious approach for now, but will keep monitoring things to see if it maybe better to go back to being more selective again.
mlmrob ,
greyabbey ,
nicksar ,
SeanHi
greyabbey . Earlier in the year I was doing just that, backing all my selections to 1 pt level stakes. From January to May, I had 53 bets and made just over 17 pts profit at 1 pt level stakes, those figures look good but don’t tell the whole story. I was having long losing runs, sometimes lasting weeks and that was becoming very stressful and making me lose my discipline. I took a break from betting for whole of June to assess my selection methods and staking.I decided that I needed to cut down the losing runs to reduce the stress by trying to win more often even if it meant I would be winning lesser amount. So that’s what I have been doing since July. Since 1st of July, with the new approach, my profit is currently at +9.82 pts from 38.70 pts staked, I am having a lot more bets than I was earlier in the year - total of 48 bets since July. If I backed all these to win at 1 pt level stakes then I would have actually made a loss of just over 5 pts (-5.01 to be precise). But that is probably not an accurate reflection as many of these selections were mainly place fancies rather than win, so if I was backing win only then I would have probably left these out. The ones I picked as win only show a better return of +13.50 pts profit from 24 bets at level stakes (these are all priced under 5/1), so I have done better with shorter priced ones but it’s too small a sample size to draw any firm conclusions. I think I will continue with the cautious approach for now, but will keep monitoring things to see if it maybe better to go back to being more selective again.
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mick
Sire
I was impressed by
F
Frontrunner above, an honest and detailed response to another members question from which some readers might ponder self case and learn. It is always interesting to glean how others are staking and why. 
Frontrunner
Stallion
Thanks
mick
5:25 Carlisle - 1 pt win on Hello Zabeel @ 4/5
Very little depth to this 3yo+ maiden, so this effectively looks a match between the top two in betting who have official ratings of 78 & 77. Despite being lower rated of the two, I prefer Hello Zabeel for a number of reasons. He finished 2nd of 4 in a handicap last time (the winner was completing a hat trick, and other two horses had previously won in novice races). Kevin Ryan has a good record with horses he drops back to maiden company after running in a handicap, it’s 6 from 9 if they had an OR of 70+ and were in first two in betting as shown below.
Return of Kevin Stott in the saddle is another positive, trainer/jockey combination is 8 from 18 (+8 LSP) at Carlisle with those priced under 5/1.
He should stay 7 furlongs, and I think he might actually improve a little for it. Pedigree also favours him over his main rival, Frankel’s progeny is 5 from 11 at Carlisle compared to Camacho (sire of Red Genesis) who is 4 from 61 at the course.
Despite all these positives on stats, it is not a straightforward decision as Red Genesis has one strong positive in eye catching jockey booking of Oisin Murphy who is in such good form at the moment and has a very good record for this trainer. Murphy has ridden at Carlisle only twice before and been beaten on favourites on both occasions, trainer has never had a runner here before. Kevin Stott is in pretty good form too though, he is 7 from 30 (+13 LSP) on Ryan’s horses over last month.
So it was a tight decision, but Hello Zabeel has most things in his favour and looks the safer option.
Looking at bigger prices, a couple I think that could possibly run a bit better than their prices are Brandy Bay and Charlesishere, impossible to really see them winning as they are 80/1 & 100/1 respectively but could be worth considering in extra places markets. Brandy Bay’s half sister won a maiden at Carlisle and her sire also has a good record here, she could improve a little on her 3rd run before she gets a handicap mark. Charlesishere, because his trainer Ann Duffield has a very good record in maidens at Carlisle and has had winners here at prices as big as 40/1.
mick 5:25 Carlisle - 1 pt win on Hello Zabeel @ 4/5
Very little depth to this 3yo+ maiden, so this effectively looks a match between the top two in betting who have official ratings of 78 & 77. Despite being lower rated of the two, I prefer Hello Zabeel for a number of reasons. He finished 2nd of 4 in a handicap last time (the winner was completing a hat trick, and other two horses had previously won in novice races). Kevin Ryan has a good record with horses he drops back to maiden company after running in a handicap, it’s 6 from 9 if they had an OR of 70+ and were in first two in betting as shown below.
Return of Kevin Stott in the saddle is another positive, trainer/jockey combination is 8 from 18 (+8 LSP) at Carlisle with those priced under 5/1.
He should stay 7 furlongs, and I think he might actually improve a little for it. Pedigree also favours him over his main rival, Frankel’s progeny is 5 from 11 at Carlisle compared to Camacho (sire of Red Genesis) who is 4 from 61 at the course.
Despite all these positives on stats, it is not a straightforward decision as Red Genesis has one strong positive in eye catching jockey booking of Oisin Murphy who is in such good form at the moment and has a very good record for this trainer. Murphy has ridden at Carlisle only twice before and been beaten on favourites on both occasions, trainer has never had a runner here before. Kevin Stott is in pretty good form too though, he is 7 from 30 (+13 LSP) on Ryan’s horses over last month.
So it was a tight decision, but Hello Zabeel has most things in his favour and looks the safer option.
Looking at bigger prices, a couple I think that could possibly run a bit better than their prices are Brandy Bay and Charlesishere, impossible to really see them winning as they are 80/1 & 100/1 respectively but could be worth considering in extra places markets. Brandy Bay’s half sister won a maiden at Carlisle and her sire also has a good record here, she could improve a little on her 3rd run before she gets a handicap mark. Charlesishere, because his trainer Ann Duffield has a very good record in maidens at Carlisle and has had winners here at prices as big as 40/1.
greyabbey
Colt
Thanks for this F Frontrunner, very interesting and a very effective communication of risk (ie risk as mathematical objectivity coupled with personal and emotional preferences).Thank you
Hi
I decided that I needed to cut down the losing runs to reduce the stress by trying to win more often even if it meant I would be winning lesser amount. So that’s what I have been doing since July. Since 1st of July, with the new approach, my profit is currently at +9.82 pts from 38.70 pts staked, I am having a lot more bets than I was earlier in the year - total of 48 bets since July. If I backed all these to win at 1 pt level stakes then I would have actually made a loss of just over 5 pts (-5.01 to be precise). But that is probably not an accurate reflection as many of these selections were mainly place fancies rather than win, so if I was backing win only then I would have probably left these out. The ones I picked as win only show a better return of +13.50 pts profit from 24 bets at level stakes (these are all priced under 5/1), so I have done better with shorter priced ones but it’s too small a sample size to draw any firm conclusions. I think I will continue with the cautious approach for now, but will keep monitoring things to see if it maybe better to go back to being more selective again.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Thanks
greyabbey,
E
Elite
Hello Zabeel (4/6 SP) won as an odds on favourite should win, very easily, so another small bit of profit secured.
Of the two big priced horses mentioned, Charlesishere ran well to finish 4th @ 125/1, I didn’t back him but looked earlier that he was 35/1 for 5 places, didn’t see the price for 4 places. I would have made more of a profit backing them for 4 or even 5 places than backing the winner, but I am not complaining.
greyabbey,
E
Elite Hello Zabeel (4/6 SP) won as an odds on favourite should win, very easily, so another small bit of profit secured.
Of the two big priced horses mentioned, Charlesishere ran well to finish 4th @ 125/1, I didn’t back him but looked earlier that he was 35/1 for 5 places, didn’t see the price for 4 places. I would have made more of a profit backing them for 4 or even 5 places than backing the winner, but I am not complaining.
Sean
Sire
Well done
F
Frontrunner
Frontrunner
Stallion
Thanks
Sean,
E
Elite
8:00 Chelmsford - 0.3 pt win Storm Melody @ 11/4, 0.3 pt win Tilsworth Rose @ 12/1 (total staked on race = 0.6 pt)
Smaller stake today, and that too split between two horses, so clearly I am not very confident about this one. Reason being there are three 3yo’s in first 4 in betting, although none look on a lenient mark to me there is always a possibility that at least one of them could improve.
Storm Melody, 7 times winner over distances ranging from 5 1/2 f to 7 furlongs, but 0 from 18 over 5 furlongs. Has finished a close 2nd on 3 of last 4 tries at the distance though, 2 of them here. Can often start slowly / is held up, blinkers replace the usual cheekpieces (last 5 wins with cp) today, it’s difficult to know what effect change of headgear will have but if he starts alertly then he has a good chance as he looks quite well handicapped. Has won from a mark as high as 74 (in 2019) and was rated about 70 just over a year ago, now on 57. It looks a winnable mark, it’s a case of finding the right conditions. Somewhat surprising jockey booking of Robert Havlin, who is 0 from 9 (all big prices) for trainer and has never ridden this horse before, from last 3 rides for the stable he has had a 100/1 2nd of 9 & 150/1 4th of 8. It is a risky bet as overall the stats are not very strong, but could win if the blinkers have a positive effect.
Other one, Tilsworth Rose, won here two starts ago in a 0-50 classified stakes. Well beaten back in a handicap last time but had the wide draw to contend with, this is tougher but she has a pretty good strike rate over the minimum trip of 4 from 25 (5 places). John Jenkins seems to have a knack of doing very well with older mares, Amosite, Caramelita, Pretty Bubbles are some of the mares that did very well for him late in their careers, could this be another one?
Return of Ray Dawson, who was on board for last win, can only be a positive. Dawson has an excellent record at Chelmsford, and is also doing very well with 9 from 41 since losing his claim last month, incidentally this horses was his last winner with the claim.
Sean,
E
Elite8:00 Chelmsford - 0.3 pt win Storm Melody @ 11/4, 0.3 pt win Tilsworth Rose @ 12/1 (total staked on race = 0.6 pt)
Smaller stake today, and that too split between two horses, so clearly I am not very confident about this one. Reason being there are three 3yo’s in first 4 in betting, although none look on a lenient mark to me there is always a possibility that at least one of them could improve.
Storm Melody, 7 times winner over distances ranging from 5 1/2 f to 7 furlongs, but 0 from 18 over 5 furlongs. Has finished a close 2nd on 3 of last 4 tries at the distance though, 2 of them here. Can often start slowly / is held up, blinkers replace the usual cheekpieces (last 5 wins with cp) today, it’s difficult to know what effect change of headgear will have but if he starts alertly then he has a good chance as he looks quite well handicapped. Has won from a mark as high as 74 (in 2019) and was rated about 70 just over a year ago, now on 57. It looks a winnable mark, it’s a case of finding the right conditions. Somewhat surprising jockey booking of Robert Havlin, who is 0 from 9 (all big prices) for trainer and has never ridden this horse before, from last 3 rides for the stable he has had a 100/1 2nd of 9 & 150/1 4th of 8. It is a risky bet as overall the stats are not very strong, but could win if the blinkers have a positive effect.
Other one, Tilsworth Rose, won here two starts ago in a 0-50 classified stakes. Well beaten back in a handicap last time but had the wide draw to contend with, this is tougher but she has a pretty good strike rate over the minimum trip of 4 from 25 (5 places). John Jenkins seems to have a knack of doing very well with older mares, Amosite, Caramelita, Pretty Bubbles are some of the mares that did very well for him late in their careers, could this be another one?
Return of Ray Dawson, who was on board for last win, can only be a positive. Dawson has an excellent record at Chelmsford, and is also doing very well with 9 from 41 since losing his claim last month, incidentally this horses was his last winner with the claim.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Blinkers did their job on Storm Melody (3/1 SP), he was out of the stalls sharpish and once he got to the front I felt confident they won’t catch him with his proven stamina over further. Only a small profit of 0.60 pt on the race.
Tilsworth Rose was last, but I will forgive her this run, she was a big drifter to 28/1 and was getting upset in the stalls, and then she couldn’t get the lead which she needs. She also probably needs a weaker race than this and where she can get an easy lead.
Tilsworth Rose was last, but I will forgive her this run, she was a big drifter to 28/1 and was getting upset in the stalls, and then she couldn’t get the lead which she needs. She also probably needs a weaker race than this and where she can get an easy lead.