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Thoughts and selections

It's an interesting race.

Other factors to consider;

David Egan is re-united with High Commisioner and he's 2-2 on him on the AW. He's 3-4-5 (W-P-R) for Cole in the last 2 yrs in AW Hcps. That and being 4lb better off with MTS from the Ncl race could make the difference. Also, Paul Cole has an impressive 24% strike rate in hcps on the Lin AW track in the past 2 years, way better than his overall AW strike rate.

I backed Master The Stars when he won at Newm and Crehan gave him a good ride. He was not so good at Hayd LTO having the horse too close to the front and subsequently running too keen. He's also down to a 3lb claim and only has a 7% strike rate in Lin AW Hcps in the last 2 yrs. However, Sea The Stars progeny have an exceptional record on the AW and the Ncl race he was a close up 3rd in, has worked out very well with Live Your Dream running very well at York NTO, Cockalorum winning twice and Chichester running well at Redcar and Haydock.

Bin Suroor has only sent 5 runners to Ling (AW Hcps) in the last 2 years and 2 have won. Passion And Glory beat HC (levels) in a Nby Novice on his first ever run and went on to win a Wdr Novice with El Misk, later rated 100+ in 2nd.
 
Hi mick mick , sorry only just seen this as I haven’t been looking in lately. I am ok, but my mum who has a long term illness, her condition worsened in last few days so that has been on my mind a lot and taken up my time. I hope to be posting regularly again soon.

Sorry to read about your back trouble, hope you are feeling better soon.
 
Thank you RyanWe RyanWe , mick mick , Chesham Chesham , K kralken, Graeme Graeme and everyone. Best wishes for a speedy recovery, Mick.

I am hoping to start betting again from 1st July, I have made some changes to my methods. Changes are to do with how I choose a race, and also doing away with shortlisting in most cases. I am now using the stats to get to just one runner in a race instead of shortlisting, and looking for trainer positives and form/improvement positives, concentrating on just one runner will save time and so far the results look promising in testing. But everything looks promising in testing, real test will be when I start backing them. I am also likely to make changes to my staking when I start betting, and am looking at possibility of place betting in order to cut down the long losing runs.

Going to keep testing the new method for next 5 days before making a decision. Today’s possible selection was Olimba in the 5:45 Doncaster even though price looks a bit short now as her two main market rivals finished ahead of her at Lingfield (polytrack) earlier in the month. But she was making her debut and other two had benefit of experience. Improved on that next time on turf to finish 2nd behind a clear winner and further improvement looks likely. Trainer has done well with similar profile horses, on 3rd run with horses that had unplaced on debut and placed 2TO, but it is a very small sample of just 3 races so has to be treated with caution.

292C8430-C722-40F1-9809-B6F59EB4E847.jpeg

High draw doesn’t seem to be a problem, and actually looks a positive from small sample. Of 22 races on same going with 11 to 13 runners, 7 have been won from 3 highest stalls.

Only question is if there is any value in current price as her chance is dependant on possible improvement more than form.
 
Thank you dave58 dave58 and Richard Dymond Richard Dymond and everyone.

After a break of about 5 weeks, I have had my first bet today. It’s always a tentative feeling when having first bet after a break, but new method has shown positive results in testing so I am going ahead with it and see how it goes for this month.

4:40 Yarmouth - Win bet on Rectory Road @ 11/4

It’s a horse that has won for me before, at Sandown last year, so I am hoping he will be lucky for me again. With a different trainer now, but is 7 lbs lower than that win. Recent efforts have been ok, on same mark as when 3rd of 12 (beaten just over a length) over this CD a month ago, but this looks a really weak race and I think he has a chance of going better. Has been tried in different headgear for last 3 runs but it’s left off today. Alice Haynes has had 4 winners in last month, more than doubling her career tally, incidentally two of those wins came when the headgear was removed. Horse’s strike rate is not great with just one win from 13 on turf (2 wins on all weather) but he was running well in much better races than this last year.

Al Tarmaah, one of only two others in race with a win to their name, is respected because of his connections, his chance could depend on what effect first time blinkers have.

Edit: he is actually on 1 lb lower mark than CD run last month, not same mark as I incorrectly stated above.
 
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