mick
Sire
F
Frontrunner good thinking above the RI trends show positive for older runners i am guessing this is down to the trip. I tend to do my write ups well in advance so commiserations the N/r i know the feeling. !
I would have to go for Ottonian the only horse that has won a class 4 , McCain has got his daughter on as well claiming 5lb and she is riding well at the momentTony Bethell Memorial Handicap (8:15 Pontefract) - 2 miles 1 furlong, class 4, good to firm, 6 runners
Smallest field for this race since 2003 at least, but it still looks a tricky race, my stats give me shortlist of Ottonian & Arabescato.
Ottonian - only 1 from 12 since joint Donald McCain, that win came over hurdles in March. Although beaten over 10 lengths when 4th of 6 at Carlisle 10 days ago, it doesn’t look too bad an effort as it was a stronger race and he has now been dropped 2 lbs. Not sure if that is enough of a drop, but top rated horses have a good record in this with 5 wins from last 16 runnings, 4 from 10 when there was a clear top rated. Yet to race on ground this quick.
Arabescato - much improved since the start of year with 3 wins already this year and also some placed efforts. Most of those runs came on the polytrack at Lingfield but has continued to run well on turf since joining John Butler, and won the Jamaican Flight Handicap at this course in April. Winners of that handicap don’t have a great record, have to go back to 2012 to find the last winner to go on to win another race in same year, so that is a little bit of negative. Only narrowly beaten at Lingfield on Saturday from same mark as today.
On form, Arabescato is clear choice from the two, and collateral form line through Thai Terrier also gives him an edge over Ottonian. To me, it’s a question of whether the handicapper has caught up with him, not finding it easy to answer that question, on positive side he is only 4 so may not have finished improving yet. I am not sure I would have had a bet in the race, probably would have waited to see the market for clues as I would not want to see a drift on Arabescato.
Doesnt diminish your work - good postHaha just as I finish typing, Arabescato becomes a non runner.
Thank you mick and B brian
Bittersweet feeling about the 8:00 result, it’s always pleasing when you get it right after spending hours on a race, but at same time there is a regret that I am not betting them at the moment. Of the final 3 on my shortlist, Genuine Approval (10/1) won, Mr Zee (6/1) 2nd, Savitar (22/1) 7th.
Results have not been bad since I decided to take a break from betting, and I feel like I am closing in on finding out what works and what doesn’t, but it’s only been 2 weeks and results could simply be down to chance, so I am going to keep testing things without betting till end of month, and then make a decision on
Good luck whatever you decide to do but personally i would be gutted to spend time getting the winner and not getting the financial rewardThank you mick and B brian
Bittersweet feeling about the 8:00 result, it’s always pleasing when you get it right after spending hours on a race, but at same time there is a regret that I am not betting them at the moment. Of the final 3 on my shortlist, Genuine Approval (10/1) won, Mr Zee (6/1) 2nd, Savitar (22/1) 7th.
Results have not been bad since I decided to take a break from betting, and I feel like I am closing in on finding out what works and what doesn’t, but it’s only been 2 weeks and results could simply be down to chance, so I am going to keep testing things without betting till end of month, and then make a decision on way forward.
Your above is a positive plan with no grey areas and shows good discipline. No one can force us to bet and at times this can prove our biggest edge.Results have not been bad since I decided to take a break from betting, and I feel like I am closing in on finding out what works and what doesn’t, but it’s only been 2 weeks and results could simply be down to chance, so I am going to keep testing things without betting till end of month, and then make a decision on way forward.