Thoughts and selections

[Frontrunner]

Thanks mlmrob

30th April

1:35 Goodwood - win bet on Rosa Mystica @ 15/2

Reasoning to follow...

I am taking a bit of risk in backing a newcomer in a race that has good form from likes of Canonized and Koda Legend, and that too a newcomer from a stable not known for winning with them. Richard Hughes is 0 from 36 (8 of them priced under 10/1) with newcomers before June, 7 of them have placed though including some at big prices.

So that’s a bit of negative, but I do like the pedigree. She was sold cheaply as a foal but price went up to £23,000 as a yearling. Half-sister to 2yo winner Atalanta Queen, although it was only a claimer that she won at 2. Dam half-sister to Group 3 winner Ishvana who won on 2yo debut and another 2yo winner Chrysalism. Rosa Mystica’s sire Mehmas had a brilliant first season, he was the leading sire of 2yo’s with 65 wins last season. More encouragingly, he won with 2 of his 4 debutants at Goodwood, and he himself had won the Richmond Stakes here as a 2yo.

Draw was another factor in my decision, as results in races of similar field sizes over this trip show a strong bias towards low draws. David Egan is 3 from 13 (2 others placed) for +2.88 LSP on trainer’s 2yo’s.

I do also like both Canonized and especially Koda Legend, I feel quite confident that Koda Legend will win races this season though pedigree suggests he will improve when running over further. I hope I have made the right decision today.

 

[mick]

F Frontrunner i have to say that you could never be accused of being boring as after yesterday's Chaser you now back a FTO 2yo. Whatever best of for Rosa.

 

[Frontrunner]

Haha, thanks mick. I have had a few small bets on 2yo’s but this is my first proper bet on one this season, I just hope I have chosen the right one.

 

[nigel90]

Newc 5.15 Strong Team Currently 35/1 Betfair Exch EW

Now this one is a risky shout in that he will either completely bomb out or really outrun his price.
He has generally lost his way hurdling and so has embarked belatedly on a flat career having had just five runs on the flat all of which are his last 5.
As a hurdler he was rated 104 which suggests a flat rating of 64 ish. His best run on the flat was over CD with Hamilton up top in a novice when he was beaten 7l by a horse rated 84 and had others rated high 70s around him. Since then 2 runs at 1m too short and a poor run at Redcar over 12f .
He is now down to 50. This morning he was 40/1 with B365 at 10.30 and 33/1 generally so has come in a chunk and with Hamilton back on worth a shout at the prices.

 

[Frontrunner]

Rosa Mystica only 4th, but that run wasn’t completely without promise, was slowly away but was picking up well (traded 3.2 in running) before meeting trouble, faded a bit at finish. I think she might pick up a nursery later in the season. Probably not a bad race, the first two look good at least, not sure about others.

 

[jona6969]

unlucky mate thought it was given a poor ride by Egan certainly one too Follow

 

[PHS]

Rosa Mystica’s sire Mehmas had a brilliant first season, he was the leading sire of 2yo’s with 65 wins last season.

I see Mehmas had yet another winner, in the 3:50 Goo. I looked at that race this morning; Marsabit was the only one of the 5 that I didn't think would win as his form didn't look good enough. Getting a stone from the others and weight can be a great leveller.

 

[RyanWe]

Just catching up, great winner the other day FR.

 

[mattyboy]

To start off with for tomorrow:

I quite like Embour in the 4.15 at Newmarket. Ruth Carr undoubtedly had a poor season last year, but she seems to have regained her mojo a bit recently. This one was previously with Richard Hannon, and ran well in some really good races for that yard back in 2019, (fifth in the Ayr Gold Cup, a close 6th behind Oxted in good handicap at St Leger meeting, 2nd in a good class 2 handicap at Goodwood amongst them). Ruth Carr historically has rejuvenated horses from other yards, and this one won nicely last time after losing his form initially for the yard. The 4th horse home, (Gale Force Maya) has won since, the 6th, (Fortamour), has run pretty well next time. Both weren't beaten far and first three have not run since.
I like Hollie Doyle jockey booking too. Normally, there seems to be a distinct pecking order with jockey bookings for this yard, in that you want to be looking for a horse ridden by Jimmy Sullivan. However, Hollie Doyle wouldn't normally ride for the yard. It's a flagship meeting and she hasn't got any good rides in the big races. She is a capable rider, no doubt about that, looking for that last big push into the absolute top level of the sport. Her boyfriend Tom Marquand has arguably reached that level now; that may drive her on as well. Ruth Carr as a female trainer, may well want to help her reach that level and a winner on such a big day would help in that regard.
This may all be specualtive, but horse's back form on its own would probably be enough to win this race, 5/1 looks a very fair price to me.

 

[Frontrunner]

End of month report for April

It was a month to forget. Just 1 winner (10/1) from 16 bets, worst part of it was that many of my bets were at short prices. Can only hope that things will get better next month.

YTD it’s 10 winners from 41 bets for LSP of +24.83, but profit is all down to a good January, last 3 months have been a continuous struggle.

January (+25 from 10 bets)
February (+2 from 8 bets)
March (+2.83 from 7 bets)
April (-5 from 16 bets)

				EP	SP
1/4/21	Ffos Las - 3m Novices Handicap Chase (Class 4)	Scorpion Haze	P/11	11.00	29.00
3/4/21	Cork - 5f Handicap (3yo, Class 4)	Claonadh	5th Of 15	10.00	9.00
4/4/21	Fairyhouse - 2m 1/2f Grade 2 Novices Handicap Chase	Yukon Lil	F/15	2.68	N/a	Place only
6/4/21	Pontefract - 6f Novice Stakes (3yo+)	My Thought	5th Of 10	41.00	67.00	E/w
9/4/21	Aintree - 3m 1f Grade 1 Novices Hurdle	Midnight River	F/12	11.00	5.00
10/4/21	Chepstow - 3m Handicap Chase (Class 4)	Waikiki Waves	4th Of 5	2.88	5.00
12/4/21	Wolverhampton - 1m 1 1/2f Median Auction Novice (3-5yo, class 5)	Rich Dream	2nd Of 11	3.50	3.25
13/4/21	Southwell - 2m Handicap Hurdle (Class 5)	Drumochter	8th Of 14	7.00	10.00
15/4/21	Limerick - 2m Maiden Hurdle	The Cathal Don	3rd of 14	2.50	2.38
16/4/21	Bath - 5f Listed Lansdown Stakes	On My Way	7th Of 14	8.00	4.00
21/4/21	Dundalk - 3yo 1m Maiden	County Wicklow	3rd of 12	3.25	3.50
22/4/21	Warwick - 2m Handicap Chase (Class 4)	Gouet Des Bruyeres	7th Of 8	3.00	3.25
26/4/21	Thirsk - 7f Handicap (Class 6)	Twin Appeal	12th Of 15	13.00	19.00
28/4/21	Wolverhampton - 1m 4f 3yo Handicap (Class 6)	Dansing Bear	1st Of 6	10.00	11.00
29/4/21	Punchestown - 2m Grade 1 Novice Chase	Captain Guinness	UR/4	7.00	6.50
30/4/21	Goodwood - 5f Novice (2yo, Class 4)	Rosa Mystica	4th Of 7	8.50	8.00

 

[pete]

Playing with bookie money F Frontrunner ... to coin an oft used phrase from elsewhere on the forum.
Keep the faith.

 

[PHS]

At least you persevered and made it look respectable (with the 10/1 winner) and protected your YTD figures!

 

[dave58]

F Frontrunner, personally speaking your input here has been gratefully received and you have been a breath of fresh air since you have joined us, so it's good to have you on board.
Results are good, contributing to the forum and getting on with us is what counts more here.

 

[markfinn]

F Frontrunner - you know what you are doing and clearly have defined expectations . Clearly advice is not what you want and the figs are not bad any way , for myself - personally speaking I would not use the monthly segments - what if you send 3 home tomorrow ! and continue to have a stellar month of May ! - I dont see how that would help me see the whole picture . Anyway good luck

 

[markfinn]

I would also add that we learn as much from losing as winning - monetary value is rarely the only value outcome and often not the most valuable.

 

[mick]

F Frontrunner, personally speaking your input here has been gratefully received and you have been a breath of fresh air since you have joined us, so it's good to have you on board.
Results are good, contributing to the forum and getting on with us is what counts more here.

This is well said Dave although for a member who is making a YTD 60% Roi he does moan a bit, could i suggest a Forum Fine i suspect he could afford it.

 

[Frontrunner]

Thanks everyone.

1st May

Grade 1 Champion 4yo Hurdle (4:00 Punchestown) - each way bet on Saint Sam @ 10/1

I don’t usually go each way on as short a price as this, but at the start of month I am a bit more cautious as I don’t like starting with a losing bet so trying to play it safe.

It has been the Willie Mullins show so far this week with 16 winners, and he may get a chance to better his previous best of 18 at the 2018 festival. He has won 6 of the last 7 runnings of this race, and runs two this time - current favourite Haute En Couleurs and my selection. Paul Townend prefers HeC, but he doesn’t always get it right.

Shown below is how Townend and Danny Mullins have performed riding for Willie Mullins in same race with both of them on horses priced 10/1 or under. Townend has slightly more winners, but value has clearly been in following Danny. His win on Colreevy beating Monkfish earlier in the week was another example of this.



Saint Sam was no match for Quilixios at Leopardstown in February, and I do have doubts because of this, but he stuck on well for 2nd having set the pace. It was another good effort at Cheltenham to finish 2nd in the Fred Winter, as he was giving a stone in weight to the winner Jeff Kidder.

I am not confident for the win, as it won’t be easy with the 1st, 3rd & 4th from Triumph Hurdle in opposition, and he might need one or two of them to run below form, but I think he has got a race in him. Whether it can be at Grade 1 level, I don’t know but hopefully he will run well.

 

[Frontrunner]

Well I picked the right jockey, Danny Mullins has just won the first two races. Can he do the hat trick? I hope so, but it doesn’t happen very often, last time he rode 3 winners on a day was back in 2015.

 

[mattyboy]

The Henry Candy horse in the 7.10 Doncaster race looks ridiculously short to me. 1/2 about a horse making 3 year old debut after three two year old runs, against a horse that was 2.75 lengths third to a subsequent Group 3 third on his debut recently. Form of Twillight Calls races hasn't even worked out that well, (although they were on G1 tracks).
The Cheveley Park owned favourite isn't even that well bred either, having been bought in for £26,000 before his debut.

Price looks crazy to me!

 

[Frontrunner]

Saint Sam was only 5th yesterday. The winner Jeff Kidder has clearly improved since Cheltenham, but it was still a disappointing effort from my one to finish so far behind him.

2nd May

3:10 Salisbury - Win bet on Big Boy Bobby @ 9/2

Unplaced in 3 runs as 2yo, but interestingly best of those 3 runs came on turf when finishing 2 lengths 5th of 14 (16/1) at Newbury (1 mile. Heavy), admittedly he did seem to be favoured by the draw that day but was over 4 lengths clear of the 6th horse. 3rd horse in that race was already rated 80 and hasn’t run since, 4th has won an A/W maiden and is now rated 79, 6th horse has won a novice and is now rated 91. The 6th was making his debut so has clearly improved a lot so I won’t take his rating into account, but even without that BBB’s opening mark of 77 looks ok.

He should be suited by this step up in trip. Although sire has only had 1 winner over further than a mile from limited number of runners, he is from the Monsun line so stamina shouldn’t be a problem. His dam improved for stepping up in distance for first time to win a Listed race (9 1/2 furlongs) as 3yo.

Roger Charlton has a very good record in 3yo handicaps on turf, especially with those that had previously failed to place, and shows very good profit in these races from a decent size sample.



Jockey Jason Watson does well at Salisbury, with 18% strike rate (11 from 60) for +17 LSP. Although, trainer/jockey combination here is 1 from 12 which can be seen as a slight negative.