28th April
3:00 Wolverhampton - Win bet on Dansing Bear @ 9/1 (missed the 12/1 earlier)
Reasoning to follow...
A very tight class 6 3yo handicap with just 5 lbs separating the 6 runners on official ratings, so I think it will be a case of which one of them can improve more. And as most of these are stepping up in distance (only 1 has raced over this distance, finished unplaced) and also most trying this surface for first time (2 have run here but no places), these are the two areas I am looking for possible improvement.
Dansing Bear is making a big step up in distance as all 3 of this runs have come over 1 mile. On sire side, I am not sure about this as none of Kodi Bear’s progeny has run beyond 10 furlongs yet, but damsire is Dansili who does get winners over middle distances, and also the grand dam was a Listed winner over mile and half. So I think there is a good chance that he will stay.
Kodi Bear’s progeny has a good record here at Wolverhampton, 4 from 19 (+23 LSP) here compared to 0 from 16 at Lingfield, the course where all 3 of DB’s runs have been. Those 4 wins have come with 3 different horses, of 12 horses on their first run on this surface 3 won and 3 placed. DB’s half-brother won a maiden here (8.5f).
Ed Dunlop does well in 3yo handicaps here with almost 20% strike rate, it improves to 24% with 17% ROI with those making handicap debut. Shown below are stats for those that had failed to place in any of their races and were returning after the break, small sample but those numbers are very good.
I do have some doubts because of race fitness, as all 5 of his rivals have already had a run. But there are enough positives for me to take a chance. Favourite does have a good chance after his 2nd on return last time, but I feel price is too short.