Frontrunner
Stallion
14th January
3:50 Bangor - win bet on All Good Things @ 7/2
Going description has changed from soft to heavy and with more showers forecast through the day it could get quite bad by the time this race is run, but hopefully it won’t affect my selection too much as his record on heavy is not bad, 3 runs resulting in 1/12, 2/10, 2/13. His strike rate is not very good, only 2 wins from 36 (placed another 8 times), but this is such a poor race, only 5 of the 14 runners have won within last 2 years.
He came to Matt Sheppard 2 years ago on a rating of 110, and finally got a win in November 2019 when his mark had dropped to 80. He ran a couple of very close 2nds after that from 87 & 94 before they ran on summer ground to get the mark back down into 80s. Back on soft last time, he ran very well and may have been a bit unlucky to come up against an improving horse, the winner was in good form and since has won again and finished 2nd. But I felt they were trying on AGT last time, and although up 2 lbs for that effort to 88 I think he can go well again as this looks a weaker race to me.
On a line through Ragamuffin, there is not much between my selection and Baratineur at these weights, the latter finished a close 3rd over CD last time in a conditional jockey’s race - a race that he had won the previous year so it seems that was the target again, but he has also gone up 3 lbs for that defeat.
In a race like this, there is always a danger that something could be lurking with hidden form, and interestingly there has been money for one of those that I felt fitted into that category, Panatos who has halved in price to 8/1, Burdigala was another but is a non runner now. Panatos could be a danger along with the two from Jennie Candlish, but I feel my one is well enough handicapped and should give it a good go from the front and hopefully hold on at the end.
Trainer is only 2 from 40 at Bangor, but those stats are a bit skewed as 27 of those runs were in summer months and he generally doesn’t get many winners in summer, his MO seems to be to use the summer to get handicap marks down. From October to March his record here is 2 from 13.
3:50 Bangor - win bet on All Good Things @ 7/2
Going description has changed from soft to heavy and with more showers forecast through the day it could get quite bad by the time this race is run, but hopefully it won’t affect my selection too much as his record on heavy is not bad, 3 runs resulting in 1/12, 2/10, 2/13. His strike rate is not very good, only 2 wins from 36 (placed another 8 times), but this is such a poor race, only 5 of the 14 runners have won within last 2 years.
He came to Matt Sheppard 2 years ago on a rating of 110, and finally got a win in November 2019 when his mark had dropped to 80. He ran a couple of very close 2nds after that from 87 & 94 before they ran on summer ground to get the mark back down into 80s. Back on soft last time, he ran very well and may have been a bit unlucky to come up against an improving horse, the winner was in good form and since has won again and finished 2nd. But I felt they were trying on AGT last time, and although up 2 lbs for that effort to 88 I think he can go well again as this looks a weaker race to me.
On a line through Ragamuffin, there is not much between my selection and Baratineur at these weights, the latter finished a close 3rd over CD last time in a conditional jockey’s race - a race that he had won the previous year so it seems that was the target again, but he has also gone up 3 lbs for that defeat.
In a race like this, there is always a danger that something could be lurking with hidden form, and interestingly there has been money for one of those that I felt fitted into that category, Panatos who has halved in price to 8/1, Burdigala was another but is a non runner now. Panatos could be a danger along with the two from Jennie Candlish, but I feel my one is well enough handicapped and should give it a good go from the front and hopefully hold on at the end.
Trainer is only 2 from 40 at Bangor, but those stats are a bit skewed as 27 of those runs were in summer months and he generally doesn’t get many winners in summer, his MO seems to be to use the summer to get handicap marks down. From October to March his record here is 2 from 13.