• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Thoughts and selections

Thanks ardnehue ardnehue , good work above. That 6LR was also the key piece of form for me. Like yourself, I also thought that 6f maybe on short side but with regards to distance I always look at horses’ record over a furlong further or shorter to compensate for unpredictability of pace. There were not many in yesterday’s race that stayed further than 6, that’s why I think getting a good start was important as also mentioned by doomster doomster. If he had started slowly, then I think his chance would have gone, but by helping force the pace I feel he outstayed others. ATR’s pace chart to its credit got it spot on for this race as it had predicted him to dispute the lead.
 
Looking at today’s cards, I found Voi interesting in the 7:30 Kempton. She also hasn’t won a race for over 2 years (losing run of 36), but dropping to classified stakes for first time I think she should be good enough to take care of this lot, as it really is a poor race with 1 win from 140 runs between them in last two years. Voi has been running ok in better handicaps, they even tried her in a Group 3 race once. The 2nd place in 4LR at Yarmouth looks a good piece of form in context of this race.

But I am not backing her as I have been bitten enough times by backing short priced horses in low grade races like this, and at 10/3 now from 7/1 any value is probably gone. But if I can find a few others in earlier races, then I will include her in a multiple bet just for a bit of fun.
 
2.35 Deevious Beau has just 2 wins both on fibresand....Now only Tapeta available at Barron's 2 favourite track..
has a winner up already today. Sir Hector Is a trainer in form selection..The other 2 at the front of the betting and
Sir Gregory..an Appleby alert for me are dangers. I backed the Barron horse to win on bf.
 
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2.35 Deevious Beau has just 2 wins both on fibresand....Now only Tapeta available at Barron's 2 favourite track..
has a winner up already today. Sir Hector Is a trainer in form selection..The other 2 at the front of the betting and
Sir Gregory..an Appleby alert for me are dangers. I backed the Barron horse to win on bf.
Very unlucky ardnehue ardnehue, hit 1.50 in running, but still a nice placer. Winner Red Alert had been in my tracker for some time last year as wanting 6f, but deleted it recently.
 
Looking at today’s cards, I found Voi interesting in the 7:30 Kempton. She also hasn’t won a race for over 2 years (losing run of 36), but dropping to classified stakes for first time I think she should be good enough to take care of this lot, as it really is a poor race with 1 win from 140 runs between them in last two years. Voi has been running ok in better handicaps, they even tried her in a Group 3 race once. The 2nd place in 4LR at Yarmouth looks a good piece of form in context of this race.

But I am not backing her as I have been bitten enough times by backing short priced horses in low grade races like this, and at 10/3 now from 7/1 any value is probably gone. But if I can find a few others in earlier races, then I will include her in a multiple bet just for a bit of fun.
Included 3 others with it to make up an e/w yankee, Rania (11/2), Lenclume (17/2), Hafeet Alain (2/1), Voi (4/1), last 4 races.

Not expecting anything back, as it’s only a fun bet, but hopefully all four will run well.
 
3:50 Chepstow - 1 pt win Thomas Patrick @ 16/1

Another horse that has not won for a long time, Thomas Patrick’s last win was nearly four years ago at the Aintree festival when he made all to win Grade 3 handicap over 3m1f. That win was from a mark of 139, and having won 3 of his first 5 chases he was sent off 3/1 favourite for the 2018 Hennessy, he was pulled up but it showed how highly he was regarded. Since then he has had only 7 more runs, pulling up in 4 of those and beaten 30+ lengths on other 3 runs, so there is no recent form to speak of but he does find himself very well handicapped on old form now having been dropped to 117 and being able to run in class 4 for first time.

Last 4 of his runs can also be excused on account of coming after breaks of 317, 73, 244 & 400 days. This is the first time in almost 3 years that he is running within a month.

There is a question mark about the distance as he has not run over this short a trip since his novice hurdle days. But in these testing conditions, I feel it may not be a big problem. Shown below is the record of horses over 2m2f-2m4.5f range at Chepstow, that had previously won at up to 3m-3m2.5f range. We can see that when the going is soft/heavy it puts more emphasis on stamina and these horses dropping back in distance don’t have a bad record in these conditions.

FA78DE81-D7E1-441D-901C-8D15071E5F6C.jpeg

Booking of Stan Sheppard is also a positive, Sheppard is having his best season so far having ridden 25 winners for LSP of +44.50. He seems to have benefited since Richard Johnson’s retirement as he is getting more opportunities to ride some of Tom Lacey’s better horses, Lacey has provided 16 of his 25 winners this season. Lacey/Sheppard combination is 3 from 4 in chases at Chepstow, albeit all 3 winners were much shorter prices.

A412C44C-0C22-4D16-9232-7226F9F04013.jpeg

Horse has won on his only previous visit to Chepstow so course is not a problem, and he has won on heavy going too. Only two possible problems are one the distance, but as explained above I don’t see it a big problem. Other is that we don’t really know how much ability he retains, and that is a risk we take and I feel the price makes it worth taking because if he still has any of his old ability then he shouldn’t have a problem with class 4 race off a mark of just 117.
 
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3:50 Chepstow - 1 pt win Thomas Patrick @ 16/1

Another horse that has not won for a long time, Thomas Patrick’s last win was nearly four years ago at the Aintree festival when he made all to win Grade 3 handicap over 3m1f. That win was from a mark of 139, and having won 3 of his first 5 chases he was sent off 3/1 favourite for the 2018 Hennessy, he was pulled up but it showed how highly he was regarded. Since then he has had only 7 more runs, pulling up in 4 of those and beaten 30+ lengths on other 3 runs, so there is no recent form to speak of but he does find himself very well handicapped on old form now having been dropped to 117 and being able to run in class 4 for first time.

Last 4 of his runs can also be excused on account of coming after breaks of 317, 73, 244 & 400 days. This is the first time in almost 3 years that he is running within a month.

There is a question mark about the distance as he has not run over this short a trip since his novice hurdle days. But in these testing conditions, I feel it may not be a big problem. Shown below is the record of horses over 2m2f-2m4.5f range at Chepstow, that had previously won at up to 3m-3m2.5f range. We can see that when the going is soft/heavy it puts more emphasis on stamina and these horses dropping back in distance don’t have a bad record in these conditions.

View attachment 110317

Booking of Stan Sheppard is also a positive, Sheppard is having his best season so far having ridden 25 winners for LSP of +44.50. He seems to have benefited since Richard Johnson’s retirement as he is getting more opportunities to ride some of Tom Lacey’s better horses, Lacey has provided 16 of his 25 winners this season. Lacey/Sheppard combination is 3 from 4 in chases at Chepstow, albeit all 3 winners were much shorter prices.

View attachment 110319

Horse has won on his only previous visit to Chepstow so course is not a problem, and he has won on heavy going too. Only two possible problems are one the distance, but as explained above I don’t see it a big problem. Other is that we don’t really know how much ability he retains, and that is a risk we take and I feel the price makes it worth taking because if he still has any of his old ability then he shouldn’t have a problem with class 4 race off a mark of just 117.
I quite fancy Mouseinthehouse I put him up last time out at Chepstow but he never got into the race however drops back to class 4 tomorrow. I remember seeing TP win at Aintree in 2018 and thought he would be a staying chaser going for Nationals unfortunately it's not worked out . You're right about him being well handicapped though hopefully for you he's another Tommy Tucker .
 
Thanks C Coseleymon , L lendos , greyabbey greyabbey

No good today unfortunately. Not many got involved in the race, Thomas Patrick didn’t have the pace to go with them and was also slow at the jumps, came home in his own time to finish 5th.
I think the money for Oneils spoke volumes as it proved. To be fair I thought TP had a nice little jog around without being put in the race he should drop in the weights for that and may still be capable of going close ,one to look out for
 
I think the money for Oneils spoke volumes as it proved. To be fair I thought TP had a nice little jog around without being put in the race he should drop in the weights for that and may still be capable of going close ,one to look out for
Yes, you could be right, I had thought his handicap mark was low enough but maybe they need it to drop further and could be interesting when returned to a longer trip, will probably win when I don’t back him haha. I see Cash Back won in Ireland today, 8/1 (was 10/1 earlier) in a 4-runner race, he ran a not too dissimilar race when I backed him last month, had looked at today’s race and thought about it but decided to leave it :(
 
Yes, you could be right, I had thought his handicap mark was low enough but maybe they need it to drop further and could be interesting when returned to a longer trip, will probably win when I don’t back him haha. I see Cash Back won in Ireland today, 8/1 (was 10/1 earlier) in a 4-runner race, he ran a not too dissimilar race when I backed him last month, had looked at today’s race and thought about it but decided to leave it :(
Its always the way isn't it !!!. I'm old fashioned and still write horses in a notebook and hope I don't miss them
 
Nothing today, but watching one possibly for the future in the bumper at Wetherby (3:35). Night Jet is out of a mare that did quite well for Tom Symonds, winning 7 races from 29. He ran ok on debut to finish 5th, the race included newcomers from some top stables that do well in bumpers. Symonds doesn’t have a great record in bumpers though, especially 2nd time out it’s a poor 2 from 50, so I will be surprised if he wins today, could have a place chance today but maybe worth checking when he goes hurdling.
 
Night Jet ran ok to finish 6th, but will only be of interest to me when going over hurdles.

Not bet today or tomorrow either, type of horses I am concentrating on at the moment means there won’t be a bet most days. I still enjoy watching the races without getting involved financially, so will keep posting my thoughts.

It’s another bumper (3:30 Ayr) I looked at today. Nicky Richards’ newcomer Tfou, who cost €180,000, won’t need to be anything special to make a winning debut here, my main concern would be why they didn’t run him last year as he is a 6yo now. I don’t think this is a race for betting anyway, just to watch. Also interesting is Donald Whillans newcomer Gie It Laldy, his half brother went very close on his debut here at Ayr for same trainer, but that horse was priced 9/1, GiL is 40/1 so I don’t think the same is expected today but will be interesting to see how he runs.

In 2:00 race, Democratic Oath is a selection on a system I am tracking.

If I can find two more horses, I will put DO and Tfou in a small yankee just for a bit of fun.
 
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