Very unlucky ardnehue, hit 1.50 in running, but still a nice placer. Winner Red Alert had been in my tracker for some time last year as wanting 6f, but deleted it recently.2.35 Deevious Beau has just 2 wins both on fibresand....Now only Tapeta available at Barron's 2 favourite track..
has a winner up already today. Sir Hector Is a trainer in form selection..The other 2 at the front of the betting and
Sir Gregory..an Appleby alert for me are dangers. I backed the Barron horse to win on bf.
Included 3 others with it to make up an e/w yankee, Rania (11/2), Lenclume (17/2), Hafeet Alain (2/1), Voi (4/1), last 4 races.Looking at today’s cards, I found Voi interesting in the 7:30 Kempton. She also hasn’t won a race for over 2 years (losing run of 36), but dropping to classified stakes for first time I think she should be good enough to take care of this lot, as it really is a poor race with 1 win from 140 runs between them in last two years. Voi has been running ok in better handicaps, they even tried her in a Group 3 race once. The 2nd place in 4LR at Yarmouth looks a good piece of form in context of this race.
But I am not backing her as I have been bitten enough times by backing short priced horses in low grade races like this, and at 10/3 now from 7/1 any value is probably gone. But if I can find a few others in earlier races, then I will include her in a multiple bet just for a bit of fun.
5th, 1st, 2nd & 3rd, no damage done as got most of the stake back.Included 3 others with it to make up an e/w yankee, Rania (11/2), Lenclume (17/2), Hafeet Alain (2/1), Voi (4/1), last 4 races.
Not expecting anything back, as it’s only a fun bet, but hopefully all four will run well.
I quite fancy Mouseinthehouse I put him up last time out at Chepstow but he never got into the race however drops back to class 4 tomorrow. I remember seeing TP win at Aintree in 2018 and thought he would be a staying chaser going for Nationals unfortunately it's not worked out . You're right about him being well handicapped though hopefully for you he's another Tommy Tucker .3:50 Chepstow - 1 pt win Thomas Patrick @ 16/1
Another horse that has not won for a long time, Thomas Patrick’s last win was nearly four years ago at the Aintree festival when he made all to win Grade 3 handicap over 3m1f. That win was from a mark of 139, and having won 3 of his first 5 chases he was sent off 3/1 favourite for the 2018 Hennessy, he was pulled up but it showed how highly he was regarded. Since then he has had only 7 more runs, pulling up in 4 of those and beaten 30+ lengths on other 3 runs, so there is no recent form to speak of but he does find himself very well handicapped on old form now having been dropped to 117 and being able to run in class 4 for first time.
Last 4 of his runs can also be excused on account of coming after breaks of 317, 73, 244 & 400 days. This is the first time in almost 3 years that he is running within a month.
There is a question mark about the distance as he has not run over this short a trip since his novice hurdle days. But in these testing conditions, I feel it may not be a big problem. Shown below is the record of horses over 2m2f-2m4.5f range at Chepstow, that had previously won at up to 3m-3m2.5f range. We can see that when the going is soft/heavy it puts more emphasis on stamina and these horses dropping back in distance don’t have a bad record in these conditions.
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Booking of Stan Sheppard is also a positive, Sheppard is having his best season so far having ridden 25 winners for LSP of +44.50. He seems to have benefited since Richard Johnson’s retirement as he is getting more opportunities to ride some of Tom Lacey’s better horses, Lacey has provided 16 of his 25 winners this season. Lacey/Sheppard combination is 3 from 4 in chases at Chepstow, albeit all 3 winners were much shorter prices.
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Horse has won on his only previous visit to Chepstow so course is not a problem, and he has won on heavy going too. Only two possible problems are one the distance, but as explained above I don’t see it a big problem. Other is that we don’t really know how much ability he retains, and that is a risk we take and I feel the price makes it worth taking because if he still has any of his old ability then he shouldn’t have a problem with class 4 race off a mark of just 117.
I think the money for Oneils spoke volumes as it proved. To be fair I thought TP had a nice little jog around without being put in the race he should drop in the weights for that and may still be capable of going close ,one to look out for
Yes, you could be right, I had thought his handicap mark was low enough but maybe they need it to drop further and could be interesting when returned to a longer trip, will probably win when I don’t back him haha. I see Cash Back won in Ireland today, 8/1 (was 10/1 earlier) in a 4-runner race, he ran a not too dissimilar race when I backed him last month, had looked at today’s race and thought about it but decided to leave itI think the money for Oneils spoke volumes as it proved. To be fair I thought TP had a nice little jog around without being put in the race he should drop in the weights for that and may still be capable of going close ,one to look out for
Its always the way isn't it !!!. I'm old fashioned and still write horses in a notebook and hope I don't miss themYes, you could be right, I had thought his handicap mark was low enough but maybe they need it to drop further and could be interesting when returned to a longer trip, will probably win when I don’t back him haha. I see Cash Back won in Ireland today, 8/1 (was 10/1 earlier) in a 4-runner race, he ran a not too dissimilar race when I backed him last month, had looked at today’s race and thought about it but decided to leave it
Grant Tuer has come off an outstanding season too, and not been with the yard for that long.very well done your stats with dropping to class 5 were spot on,