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Thoughts and selections

Thanks Sean Sean, TomasZ TomasZ, E Elite , greyabbey greyabbey , mick mick and everyone for your words of encouragement and support, it’s appreciated.

I will wait till tomorrow for my next bet, but looking at today’s races, Due A Win (5:45 Newscastle) looks interesting at around 6/1. Form of his last race hasn’t worked out too badly, 5th won next time from 1 lb lower, 9th & 10th placed & won next time respectively from 2 lbs lower. Due A Win is also 1 lb lower and 4 lbs better off with winner Muatadel for 1 1/3 lengths, so I think he will run well but you can never be sure in a low grade race like this. I am not betting, just watching.
Starting the month with a long shot, so no real expectation of getting any returns but I think he can run better than his price.

Listed Wild Flower Stakes (5:30 Kempton) - Aced It, 0.1 pt e/w @ 33/1, 0.2 pt to finish in first 3 @ BfSP (4/1 offered by Betfair Sportsbook for 3 places looks a bit short to me so will wait for BfSP), total staked 0.4 pt

22/1 offered by Bet365 on each way extra (4 places) doesn’t look bad, in comparison Betfair Sportsbook is offering a paltry 13/2 for exact same bet.

The 3yo Siskany should be hard to beat but I have taken a chance on outsider of the field Aced It to run well and hopefully finish in first 3 (ideally I would have liked to play for 4 places but there is no place only market for that). This is a huge step up in class, the lowest rating to win this race has been 92 (in 2014), Aced It is rated only 87 so I am not expecting a win, but this horse gives his all and has hardly run a bad race since his current connections bought him for just £800 last year.

His 4 runs at Kempton have resulted in 4/14 (200/1), 1/8 (11/4), 2/8 (12/1), 2/7 (9/4). Last of those runs was just a week ago where he only just failed, running over a 1f shorter trip which wasn’t ideal. Before that he had run better than his finishing position of 3rd in Apprentices derby at Epsom, trying to chase an improving 3yo who had got the first run.

As mentioned already, it is a big step up in class and maybe connections are aiming too high, but he is race-fit and with his good record at the course I think he could run better than his odds.
I was being too optimistic with Aced It, he finished last of 7 as the market predicted. It was another improver Garden Paradise who won it from the front, a horse mentioned by mjay mjay on this thread last time, I hope you backed her today too mate.
Silver Buck Handicap Chase (2:15 Wincanton) - Captain Tommy, 0.6 pt win @ 11/4

Reasoning to follow...

There is a worry about the ground being too quick, which has resulted in a couple of non runners that I didn’t see as dangers anyway. My selection probably doesn’t want it too quick either, but he has won twice on Good.

Captain Tommy won a couple of hurdle races at start of his career for Harry Whittington, including a novice hurdle here, before finishing a good 2nd in a Listed hurdle. He struggled a bit since then and was tried in headgear and tongue tie without much help.

Moved to David Bridgewater in May this year, who removed the HG & TT, and he was a well backed winner on first start for new trainer from mark of 122 (class 2). He has had 3 more runs since then from revised mark, all in class 2, and although only one of these resulted in a minor placing, he hasn’t run too badly in any of them.

His handicap mark has now dropped to 122 again, and he is also dropping in class. His win at Uttoxeter in May remains his only chase win from 11 tries, but it also means that he is on an attractive mark. His one run over this CD was disappointing, but it was on good to firm, that’s why I hope it won’t be too quick today.
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Month hasn’t started well. Only a hopeful choice again today, so small stakes.

7:00 Dundalk - Lily Of The Glen, 0.2 pt e/w @ 15/2 (most bookies paying 4 places)

9-race maiden, 3 runs since joining Adrian McGuinness, went close over this CD on middle of those runs, poor runs over mile and half on either side of that. So I think return to this distance will suit, admittedly this looks a slightly better race than the one she finished 2nd in last month, but did have a couple of these behind.

Turned out quickly with a visor on for first time after disappointing run last week, I think she has a chance if the headgear brings about required improvement. It’s possible to make a case for a few in this race, that’s why I am not very confident but hopefully she will run well.
I will try to keep the write up short as it’s an early race. It’s a very small speculative bet, nearly left the race alone but decided to have a small bet as I had spent so much time on the race.

11:15 Aintree - Mr Tristar, 0.2 pt to finish in first 4 @ 4/1

Top 2 in betting both look good horses, I found it hard to split them, the winner is likely to come from these two though the Irish runner is very consistent and can’t be ruled out as he is getting weight from other two. Anyway I think these 3 have the first 3 places between them, which leaves just one place to play for other 5 runners. Newcomer North Lodge has a very nice pedigree, dam related to Black Jack Ketchum, but I think he might need the run today.

My selection Mr Tristar was a well beaten 6th on debut in a bumper at Bangor, but NTD’s horses often improve on hurdling debut so I am hoping that will be the case today. Form of that bumper has worked out quite well, runner up has won two novice hurdles since then, and the 7th Creative Control has won a maiden hurdle. CC, who was 6 lengths behind my selection was also beaten 19 lengths by today’s favourite Richmond Lake - form doesn’t always work out exactly like this but if it does then Mr Tristar can be expected to finish within 15 lengths of Richmond Lake which may well be enough to sneak into 4th place. I am not confident that he can even get 4th place as this is a hot race, but price of 4/1 looks value to me so decided to have a small bet.
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Grade 2 Hilly Way Chase (2:20 Cork) - Cash Back, 0.2 pt to finish in first 2 @ 7/2, 0.3 pt to finish in first 3 @ BfSP (total staked 0.5 pt)

Willie Mullins has won 12 of the last 14 runnings of this, and Energumene is long odds on to make it number 13. It’s very difficult to oppose him but something has to finish 2nd & 3rd and that’s what I am concentrating on.

I have gone with Mullins’ other runner Cash Back for the place option. It is not easy to put faith in a horse that has fallen on his last 3 runs, and he does make plenty of mistakes, but despite that he would have finished 2nd behind Chacun Pour Soi in this race last year until one mistake too many saw him come down at the last. Before those 3 falls he had finished a close 2nd behind Notebook in Grade 1 Novice at Dublin festival, so ability is there but needs to get his confidence back and put in a clear round.

I do rate the young jockey Jack Foley, I think he has a good future ahead. Of course he can’t claim in this race, but this is not about winning, it will be a good job to just get him around and that could be good enough for 3rd place. Not sure how much difference this will make, but just an observation that all 5 horses in this race have a new jockey on board for first time.

Daly Tiger was the other one I considered for place, he has won on his return on each of last 3 years so is unlikely to lack for fitness. His rating is based on his performances in handicaps though and he still has to prove himself at Graded level, for this reason I preferred Cash Back. Hope I made the right decision.
Indeed, dave58 dave58, that’s what keeps us trying, every race is like a new puzzle.

1:30 Ludlow - Puffin Bay, 0.1 pt e/w @ 11/1, 0.4 pt to finish in first 3 @ 7/4 (total staked 0.6 pt)

Miranda won this race last year, and it’s not impossible that she could win again from 6 lbs higher mark as she is the class horse, she was too short at odds on but if the drift continues she could become a reasonable price. However, I am looking for something that I think will run well for a place and maybe have a chance of winning with a bit of improvement.

Puffin Bay has been very consistent in bumpers and maiden hurdles and now makes her handicap debut. There are a few negatives that stop me from feeling very confident about a win, trainer’s runners don’t usually show a lot of improvement for handicap debuts, she is 5 lbs out of the handicap and we don’t really know what she beat in the maiden last time, it may not have been much.

But her consistency is a positive, it means she is likely to run her race, and after just 5 runs there is still possibility of improvement, and although out of the handicap I think carrying a low weight is still a positive. I will be happy if she can finish in first 3.

I also considered Cotton End, who has been out of form but is now 1 lb lower than when 3rd in this race last year, so I can see why she has been backed from 22/1 to 9/1. Price maybe too short now as I think she only has a place chance rather than win.

Favourite maybe the one to beat, but my choice was between Puffin Bay & Cotton End for the place, hopefully I have chosen right this time.