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Thoughts and selections

14th January

3:50 Bangor - win bet on All Good Things @ 7/2

Going description has changed from soft to heavy and with more showers forecast through the day it could get quite bad by the time this race is run, but hopefully it won’t affect my selection too much as his record on heavy is not bad, 3 runs resulting in 1/12, 2/10, 2/13. His strike rate is not very good, only 2 wins from 36 (placed another 8 times), but this is such a poor race, only 5 of the 14 runners have won within last 2 years.

He came to Matt Sheppard 2 years ago on a rating of 110, and finally got a win in November 2019 when his mark had dropped to 80. He ran a couple of very close 2nds after that from 87 & 94 before they ran on summer ground to get the mark back down into 80s. Back on soft last time, he ran very well and may have been a bit unlucky to come up against an improving horse, the winner was in good form and since has won again and finished 2nd. But I felt they were trying on AGT last time, and although up 2 lbs for that effort to 88 I think he can go well again as this looks a weaker race to me.

On a line through Ragamuffin, there is not much between my selection and Baratineur at these weights, the latter finished a close 3rd over CD last time in a conditional jockey’s race - a race that he had won the previous year so it seems that was the target again, but he has also gone up 3 lbs for that defeat.

In a race like this, there is always a danger that something could be lurking with hidden form, and interestingly there has been money for one of those that I felt fitted into that category, Panatos who has halved in price to 8/1, Burdigala was another but is a non runner now. Panatos could be a danger along with the two from Jennie Candlish, but I feel my one is well enough handicapped and should give it a good go from the front and hopefully hold on at the end.

Trainer is only 2 from 40 at Bangor, but those stats are a bit skewed as 27 of those runs were in summer months and he generally doesn’t get many winners in summer, his MO seems to be to use the summer to get handicap marks down. From October to March his record here is 2 from 13.
 
I can sometimes go up to 800% @1.01 of my stake F Frontrunner , depending on my potential return, but obviously a few only get partially matched.

That unfortunately evolves were the queue jumpers go in @1.03.

I think I'm the king of getting horses beat @1.01 and not losing in such circumstances is good mentally and obviously strike rate.
doomster doomster, I will look into that, putting in a lay at 1.01 to generate profit, but I guess there may not be many that will get beaten after going that short. Agree with you about the mental aspect, there is nothing better than turning a losing situation into a winning one.

Good luck with your selections today.
 
It's got to be the cross matching algorithm, as it still happens regualarly F Frontrunner and I guess if the the bulk of over night cash is for 1.01 and the introduction of drones at courses, will see that cash mopped up.

I'm not sure what volumes they now use for reporting in play lows, but Bangcok a couple of days ago definitely hit 1.01.

When there are chickens like me, there will always be someone willing to take it when a few actually pass the line first.
 

mick

Sire
What i call close call swerves which then mess on us by winning can do your nut in but Imo this remains a positive discipline on balance. I do have one workaround used occasionally, which is given this situation i set a minimum value price for the horse which is far higher than a realistic expectation but if it does become available i then allow the price to force the bet.

Arse about face thinking i know and yet being a meticulous long term record keeper i also know that this strategy has been profitable for myself. Although a minority view Pink can be a positive. :) Incidentally congrats F Frontrunner for implementing and running an interesting thread. :)

One final thought i do not like to think about just how many hours a week i spend on updating my ratings and form reading, but the bottom line for myself remains " Its all about the price ".
 
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Arse about face thinking i know and yet being a meticulous long term record keeper i also know that this strategy has been profitable for myself.

That's what I class as a "mugged" bet in my case mick mick , but I can't admit to making them pay long term.

There must be a correlation with a drifer and an under the radar profitable trainer though.
 

mick

Sire
I keep a smaller and separate bank which i call Extra Gains which is used for the bet type i mentioned above, also occasionally for topping up on a drifter which i have already had my normal stake on, and for any AP bets. I started this eight years ago and to date its producing a higher Roi than my main bank during this period..................There has to be a moral or learning from this although i am buggered if i can see it. :eek:
 
Thank you mick mick, mlmrob mlmrob

It’s pleasing when things work out as you hoped, he has won quite easily. The opposition was poor and many probably didn’t handle the going but handicapper might not consider that and make life difficult for him again with a big rise, I am sure connections have got the result they wanted today though.
 
16th January

Grade 3 Classic Chase (3:00 Warwick) - No bet

I thought long and hard about it, but in the end decided not to have a bet. My possible bet was Walk In The Mill.

Becher Chase and the Welsh National are the key races as they have provided 5 of the last 9, and 3 of the last 4 winners of this. Walk In The Mill fell at ‘the chair’ (6th fence) in Becher last time having been sent off joint favourite with Le Breuil (finished 3rd). It was a race that WITM had won for 2 previous seasons, and his target after that has been the Grand National for last two seasons, finished 4th (25/1) in the big race in 2019, last year there was no Grand National due to Covid of course. He is 11 year old now, and I am not sure what the plan for this year is as for last two seasons they have run him in hurdles races before the National, so it’s interesting that he has been sent here this time. This has been Robert Walford’s best chaser, and he doesn’t run them in big races just like that, but I am still struggling a bit to work out what the plan for this season is regarding this horse.

Another interesting thing is the first time blinkers, Walford rarely puts blinkers on his horses, only 12 of his horses have worn blinkers before, none won with them on, though he has had success with other pieces of headgear. Interestingly though, 2 (from just 7 runners) of the last 10 winners of this race were wearing blinkers for first time.

Another positive was that stable is in fine form, having picked up 4 winners from just 10 runners in the past week, and Walford’s overall record for last year is pretty good, backing all his runners priced 20/1 or under would have shown a 20% ROI over last year.

Negatives, there are a couple that have stopped me having a bet, one I am really unsure about what effect first time blinkers will have, and more concerned with the drift in betting. He has more than doubled in price to 22/1, and this despite the stable being in good form currently. Walford’s biggest priced winner has been 20/1, with those priced above 20/1 his record is 0 from 195.

Red Infantry may be worth a little look in betting (33/1 currently) as he has a good record here, but it will take a very special training performance to win a race like this after such a lengthy absence.

So, no bet in the race for me, might put WITM in combination tricasts with a couple of others just for a bit of fun, but no serious bet.
 

RyanWe

Yearling
I liked Captain Chaos, the early price was terrible, but he's drifted out to a more realistic price now. Only a couple of pounds higher than last year, blinkers back on etc.

I still can't go through with it though, I just don't know if this is a better race this year or not.
 

Jackform

Gelding
My trainer selections were Notachance and Captain Chaos. Taking a further look at the market IMO it looks a 'restricted' race to no's 6, 7, 8, 11 with 11 left out as it is one of the five out of the long-hcap that I would not consider. Le Breuil yard is not on my trainers list so I am left with Notachance 10/3 and Captain Chaos 15/2. That's it for me :prankster: .
 
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