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Thoughts and selections

Thank you doomster doomster, mlmrob mlmrob , Chesham Chesham , K kralken

2:00 Punchestown - Changingoftheguard, 0.2 pt win @ 11/2, 0.6 pt to finish in first 4 @ 5/6 & 0.2 pt on Swing Point to finish in first 6 @ 10/1 (total staked on race = 1 pt)

Reasoning to follow...

Quite a difficult race to judge the strength of, as Punchestown has held only one flat meeting in nearly last 20 years. Changingoftheguard has gone off favourite on both his starts so far, so it was a bit disappointing that he wasn’t able to build on his debut effort last time. His form is not too bad though and I am giving him the benefit of doubt. On debut he finished only 4th of 6, his stablemate who was 3rd was only narrowly beaten in the Group 2 at Leopardstown on Saturday. I know selection was behind World Famous last time, but the price difference makes me take a chance and even if he can’t reverse that form I am hopeful that he will finish in first 4 at least.

Other one is a speculative choice, there are a few newcomers at big prices from stables that can ready a newcomer. Andrew Slattery and Andrew Oliver occasionally get big priced winners on debut, and Henry de Bromhead has done well with the few 2yo’s he has had. All 3 of their representatives today, Swing Point, Golden Ticket, Tourgar Raude are big prices, I wanted to pick one from them to run well. Golden Ticket has a good pedigree, but there is a little stamina doubt on the dam side. Tourgar Raude’s dam won over 1 mile 6 furlongs so might need further. I went with Swing Point as distance looks just right for him judged on pedigree, his dam Involuntary was placed in two Grade 2s (aged 4) on turf at Woodbine in Canada over 8f & 10f. No expectation today as he is 80/1, but as stable often have them ready first time I am hoping he will show enough to finish in first 6.
 
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Changingoftheguard ran much better than last time, and traded 1.34 in running before getting beaten by his stablemate, I am happy with 2nd place. Swing Point ran a blinder to finish 4th (I thought he might have got up for 3rd) @80/1, he was staying on best of all. Very happy with how I read the race.

There was 20p Rule 4 deduction on 4 places market, but no deduction on 6 places market. Total profit of 2.20 pts on the race.
 
Thanks P PHS, doomster doomster, E Elite, TomasZ TomasZ , Chesham Chesham , K kralken , nicksar nicksar

It’s certainly going well so far this month, but I am aware things can change any time in this game, hopefully the good run lasts a bit longer.

1:35 Sligo - 0.8 pt win on She Tops The Lot @ 9/4

She Tops The Lot was a relative late comer to racing, she didn’t make her rules debut till she was 7 years old, for that reason I am a bit cautious as to how much improvement she can have left as she is 8 already. But on the positive side, she is very reliable. Having won a maiden hurdle last year, she has had 5 runs over fences this season placing in 4 of them. Two of those were 2nds behind the progressive Downthecellar, so it is good consistent form. She should find this a bit easier as she now drops into mares only company. Trainer won this race last year, albeit with one that had a very different profile to this one.

Her two main rivals here were rated higher than her over hurdles, but both have little question marks against them. The Sliding Rock was a novice hurdle winner over 2m6f and has mostly run over further than 2 and half miles, so this drop back in trip is not ideal, she looks the biggest danger if drop in distance doesn’t prove a problem. Manitopark Aa is making her chasing debut after poor efforts in her last two hurdles runs, tailed off and pulled up.
 
No good today, She Tops The Lot only 2nd after going 1.25 in running. I regret that I didn’t have a little saver on the winner Kitty Galore, I did consider the possibility that as the only confirmed front runner in race she might get an easy lead and that’s exactly what happened as she landed a big gamble from 18/1 into 7/2 by making all.
 
1:25 Naas - 1pt win Sablonne @ 7/4

Sablonne has the best form having run in the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes on only her 2nd start. Although she finished last of 5 runners, it wasn’t a bad effort. She was in 4th place when she was short of room and eventually jockey accepted things and she dropped to 5th, she wouldn’t have got near the winner but I feel with a clearer run she could have got 3rd. The horses Jessica Harrington runs in that race often go on to do well, a few of the recent ones that were unplaced in Silver Flash but went on to do well for her later on include Oodnadatta (Group 1 placed), Sparklenjoy & Drumfad Bay (both Listed winners), so it’s possible that this one will be stepped back up in class sometime in future.

She was narrowly beaten as a short priced favourite in a maiden at Navan (5 1/2f) next time, although the first four hit the line together it probably isn’t bad form as it included a couple of newcomers. Cheekpieces are reached for now, which I am not sure about as headgear can be a positive sometimes and a negative at other times, but I do think that this extra half furlong will help. She had finished 3rd of 10 on debut over this CD, that form has worked out very well. The winner is still unbeaten, having won her next 3 races in Listed, Ballyhane sales race & Group 3. Runner up Agartha has won Group 3 & Group 2 and finished a close 2nd in Moyglare (Group 1). Karkiyna, who re-opposes today, was a close 4th behind her and is one of main dangers.

Price maybe a bit short today as I am slightly worried about the headgear, but she does have the strongest form and with this return to 6f likely to suit I feel she is the one to beat. I rate Karkiyna as the main danger.
 
Thank you nicksar nicksar , pete pete , Chesham Chesham , K kralken

1:45 Newbury - Fast Attack - 0.5 pt win @ 11/2 & Star From Afarrh - 0.3 pt win @ 12/1, 0.2 pt 2 TBP @ BetfairSP (total staked on race 1 pt)

Taking a risk in going against the very short priced favourite by dutching the two that ran in Group races last time, win or lose I feel the price of favourite is too short so want to take it on.

Fast Attack was very strong in betting on her debut at Kempton at start of last month and won easily, I remember the race as I had backed another horse in it, the winner showed good acceleration and won impressively. She was then sent to France to run in Group 2 Prix du Calvados, and sent off 2nd favourite but disappointed to finish last of 5. That looks a strong race now though, the winner is unbeaten in 4 runs and 2nd & 3rd are Group 3 winners, also the soft ground might not have been ideal. I think she can run well now she has her sights lowered.

Other one, Star From Afarhh won on her debut at Newmarket in July. Before her, Andrew Balding had only 5 debut winners at HQ, 4 of them went on to be rated 100+. She was then stepped up in class to run in Group 3 Solario Stakes, which was a bit unusual as not many fillies run in it. And it was a bit disappointing how quickly she weakened after leading, and her OR of 84 suggests she might need to improve a bit but it’s too soon to write her off.

Heredia is the only unpenalised runner in field having won only a class 5, whereas others have won in class 4. She is not completely ruled out either as she could improve but I think she needs too. She was strong in betting after the markets opened yesterday.

So all four runners have a chance in my view, decided to go with the two class droppers as I feel they represent some value against the favourite.
 
Thank you mlmrob mlmrob

Disappointed with myself today, as having identified a false or at least an overbet favourite I still manage to come away with a loss on the race. Fast Attack (low of 1.54 in running) and Star From Afarrh (3.4 in running) ran ok enough, but it was Heredia who turned over the favourite. Laying the favourite at around 1.45, which I did consider, would have been the better option. Reason I didn’t back the winner was because I wasn’t sure she would stay 7f.
 
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