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Thoughts and selections

Thanks everyone.

Bit of a speculative bet today, finding it difficult to get a handle on this race, so it’s very small stakes.

4:45 Salisbury - Whispering Winds, 0.1 pt e/w @ 12/1, 0.3 pt 4 TBP @ BetfairSP (total staked 0.5 pt)

Whispering Winds could finish only 4th at Ffos Las (7.5 furlongs) last time when sent off 5/2 favourite, but she had run well earlier when finishing a close 2nd over same CD. She looked to be travelling well last time too, but didn’t seem to stay, a fast early pace may have been responsible for that. Her sire Buratino is 9 from 81 over 7 furlongs but only 1 from 50 over a mile, so perhaps this is as far as she wants so I am prepared to take a chance today on this slight drop in distance.

Rod Millman has a good record in nurseries including here, he is 3 from 23 (5 others placed) in nurseries at Salisbury for +9 LSP.

Couple of other doubts I have are, one the quicker going as sire’s record on it is not good, and also not sure about the draw. My numbers suggest high draw is favoured but ATR’s draw chart says low is better, so I hope I am wrong and they are right.

Not really expecting a win, that’s why very small stake on win part, just hoping she can finish in first 4.
Thanks Chesham Chesham

No good today, Whispering Winds sat in 3rd or 4th most of the way but with Lucrosa setting a strong pace and doubts about selection’s stamina there was always the risk that she won’t see it out, and that’s what happened as she weakened to finish 7th. It wouldn’t have mattered anyway as winner turned out to be in a different league in what had appeared an open race beforehand.
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5:40 Musselburgh - 0.5 pt win Latin Five @ 9/2, 0.1 pt reverse forecast Latin Five / Sound Of Iona (total staked on race 0.7 pt)

Looks very well handicapped on Irish form as he was rated in 90s there at one time. Even if we look at just this season, then he is 13 lbs lower than where he was at start of season, this despite the win two starts ago and having gone close in another race earlier.

He has finished last or near last in two previous runs at the course, which maybe a slight negative but those were stronger races and from much higher marks and he was priced 40/1 & 125/1. Trainer/jockey combination is 6 from 29 (6 others placed) for +5 LSP in handicaps at Musselburgh.

I think his chance is pretty obvious from this mark in a race like this. Trouble is the favourite Sound Of Iona is also still well handicapped despite her win last time, and Goldie/Mulrennan also have a good record here, so have to be cautious.
Group 1 National Stakes (4:05 Curragh) - Ebro River, 0.2 pt win @ 8/1, 0.8 pt to finish in first 3 @ 4/5

Reasoning to follow...

I have taken a chance on Ebro River as price of 8/1 for the only Group 1 winner in the field looked too good to me, maybe it will turn out to be too good to be true. Admittedly it wasn’t the strongest renewal of the Phoenix Stakes that he won here over 6 furlongs last month, and it’s possible that the two unbeaten colts will have more improvement than him, but I think it’s still strong enough form for him to be competitive.

He is stepping up to 7 furlongs for first time, but I don’t think that will be a problem. His sire won the Guineas & St James’s Palace over a mile, dam was a 7f maiden winner and related to other 7f winners.

Of the last 9 Phoenix winners to compete in this, 4 won and 3 placed, but all were much shorter prices so that probably isn’t a strong positive stat but I hope he will run well and finish in first 3 at least.
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Thanks doomster doomster, P PHS

3:25 Worcester - 0.8 pt win on Fifrelet @ 6/4, 0.2 pt saver bet on Annual Review @ 7/1

Reasoning to follow...

Fifrelet returned from a lengthy absence of 600+ days to run a good 2nd here 3 weeks ago despite the drift in betting (7/2 to 9/1). He had Turpin Gold, who was also returning from a break, couple of lengths behind him in 3rd, conditions today are same as last time so there is no real reason to expect why the latter should reverse that form today.

Fifrelet had won a Warwick bumper on heavy going in December ‘19 on his only previous run, a race that is often won by some good horses although that year’s renewal got cut up with a lot of non runners due to conditions. But still it’s not bad form and sets the standard for this, and as long as Fifrelet can run to similar level as last month then he is the one to beat imo.

Saver on Annual Review as he showed much improved form following wind surgery last time. He will need to improve again, but it’s not impossible.
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