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Thoughts and selections

8th January

3 days without a bet, so maybe boredom is playing a part in me having a bet in ‘jumpers bumper’ and on a short price at that, I usually end up regretting these but let’s see.

2:50 Lingfield - win bet on Quick Grabim @ 6/4

Just the 5 runners, and the two market leaders are clear of others on ability shown over the jumps, both Grade 1 winners over hurdles, in fact both won the same Grade 1, the Royal Bond novice - Mengli Khan won it in 2017 and Quick Grabim in 2018. So there is not a lot between them, Mengli Khan has achieved a higher rating though.

My main reason for choosing Quick Grabim is his sire Oscar’s record in all weather bumpers, especially on standard to slow going as shown below. Lope De Vega (Mengli Khan’s sire)by contrast hasn’t had many runners in all weather bumpers but his overall record on standard to slow going is not great. So that’s how I have split them, will find out in a few hours if my thinking is right or not.

11387CD2-EB84-4B04-9859-2CF123236A64.jpeg
 
9th January

2:15 Lingfield - win bet on Cardano @ 11/4

Cardano ran a good race last time to finish a close 2nd against a couple of progressive 3 year olds. The winner Myseven had won 3 of her 4 previous runs and the 3rd horse (5 lengths back) Dublin Pharoah had won 3 of his last 5, so that looks strong form and selection showed good attitude to keep fighting to the line after being headed. He has gone up 4 lbs to a mark of 88, 3 lbs higher than his last win (10f, Aug/19), but he is still unexposed over this distance after only 4 runs at around mile and half.

Ian Williams/Richard Kingscote combination has a good record with a 21% strike rate (30 from 146) and LSP of +74, including 4 from 10 (+16 LSP) here at Lingfield. Williams has a good record here and he had 2 runners in this, but his other runner Autumn War is out of the race now. Kingscote is on board all 3 of Williams’ remaining runners on the card now but this looks best chance out of the 3, he has only ridden this horse twice before, back in June 2019 and won on both occasions.

There are plenty of dangers despite the small field, but I feel Cardano has a good chance judged on last run.
 
Best of luck F Frontrunner

I did want to be on Centroid last night, but really thought it would be nearer 10/1 and the non runner has removed any chance of it even touching the R4 price I'd consider.

The trainer does well with cheap off casts and really should appreciate the step up in trip, having won a soft h/c off top weight in a 0-80 in Ireland.

I really expected i bigger price cap Between Cardano and Centroid, so unfortunately for you, I have thrown Cardano into some D&T's
 
Thanks doomster doomster for your thoughts on Centroid, among many dangers in race I think this is the biggest one. I remember his last race was discussed on the UKBF common race thread, from what I recall no one had strong views about his chances that day but he was gambled from 16/1 to 11/2 and ran a good 2nd. Agree with you that trainer does very well with the horses she gets.
 
Good start, for the Williams/ Kingscote duo .

I did spend far too much time trying to get an angle on the JCH stable, but I was angling towards whether she was a "Saturday" trainer ?

Her stats are ok and we do hear the NH trainers referred to being "Saturday" types, but threre must be some flat trainers out there under the radar ?
 
Good start, for the Williams/ Kingscote duo .
Not sure whether to take that as a positive or negative regarding my selection, as I usually find if a jockey/trainer I have backed have a winner earlier on the card (especially at a bigger price) then they don’t win on my one. Maybe it’s just my perception, hope to be proved wrong.
 
10th January

2:20 Southwell - No bet

I considered backing Life Knowledge (11/1) in this, he ran here over a furlong shorter in classified stakes last Sunday. He started very slowly as is usual for him, but kept on well to be beaten under 5 lbs in 5th behind Drew Breeze. He is 8 lbs better off with the winner who is as short as 2/1 today. Another thing to note is that LK was returning from a 96 day break. Looking at trainer Liam Bailey’s record, 14 of his 15 flat winners have come from horses running within 17 days of their last run, that’s 14 from 135 compared to 1 from 113 for those with a longer break. That record improves to 8 from 47 (+34 LSP) for those running within 8 days.

So that is a big positive, but there are some negatives too, his last win was more than 2 years ago (not with this trainer), place strike rate isn’t bad, so he is more of a place horse than win. And we have to keep in mind that the race last Sunday was a very poor one, and the strong pace was a factor in him finishing as close as he did. Extra furlong today should help, but my main worry is the possible lack of pace in this race.

Of others, I think Compass Point has a good chance providing he stays, has won up to mile and quarter but steps up to this trip for first time.

I might still have a very small interest in running on Life Knowledge if there is strong early pace, but for purpose of this thread it’s a no bet.
 
LK was unplaced, so right decision to not bet.

No bet since Saturday, and again no bet today. I liked one but not enough to have a bet but will post my thoughts anyway.

13th January

6:50 Kempton - no bet

I was interested in Vivency (11/1) in this, she has shown promise in both her runs so far (3/6 & 3/7) despite starting at big prices both times. She had no chance on debut here against a couple rated 88 & 81, but kept up with them for most of the way before dropping out. Last run at Wolverhampton was again encouraging as she finished a close 3rd (beaten just over a length), 3 horses around her were all rated 75+. Pedigree looks nice, full brother Joyful Mission a maiden winner on turf, but if you go further back there are plenty of winners in higher class. So I think she can win races (perhaps over a bit further), whether it will be a maiden/novice or in low grade handicaps we have to wait and see.

Reasons I have decided against backing her today, she is up against a strong favourite who has shown good level of form, despite getting beaten at short prices couple of times, and who has a nice pedigree. And as the only 4 year old in race, Vivency is giving weight to all others. The stable is also on the cold list, Lee Carter has now equalled his longest losing run of 70, though his big priced runner yesterday (Miss Elsa) ran very well to finish a close 5th, so maybe there are signs of return to form for the stable.

So just watching today for future, hopefully made the right decision to not bet.
 

tacker

Mare
F Frontrunner
I like the approach you take here in posting your thoughts on a race even though choosing not to bet, having looked at the race i did wonder if it was a little too early for 3yr olds without having any facts to support the theory but i always have it on my mind to wait while late april before backing 3yr olds against older competition, well done again.
 
Good spot F Frontrunner

Have you ever tried back to lay on the exchange ?
Thanks doomster doomster, I do that with most of my bets these days. I will put in a lay at 1/10th or 1/20th of my odds, but do it just to cover my stake not to make a profit. I started doing this after some really bad luck one day few months ago, I had two of my bets lose after going 1.01 in running in space of about half an hour, I completely lost it after that and ended up making several bad bets that day. Since then I have decided that this is a good way to safeguard if my horses lose after running really well.

If I backed Vivency today, then I would have put in a lay at around 2.00, but tbh I didn’t think she will go that short as the favourite looked really strong, so she has actually run better than I thought.

F Frontrunner
I like the approach you take here in posting your thoughts on a race even though choosing not to bet, having looked at the race i did wonder if it was a little too early for 3yr olds without having any facts to support the theory but i always have it on my mind to wait while late april before backing 3yr olds against older competition, well done again.
Thanks T tacker, it’s only since the start of this year that I have started being more selective and so far it’s going to plan. In past, I have found it hard not to have a bet if I have spent significant amount of time on a race, but that has usually gone against me especially at this time of year - for last few years my records show that I have losing January and February and my results only get better post-Cheltenham. This year I am determined to end January in profit by hopefully cutting out some of my losers. Only had 5 bets so far this year, 1 of them was a non runner, 2 of the other 4 won, fortunately none of the ones I left have won - most of them posted here but wasn’t able to post yesterday due to shortage of time, I didn’t back it and it didn’t win but just for interest it was Royal Rhythm at Fairyhouse.

Your point about 3yo at this time of year is a good one, and it was something I had considered too. In January, although 3yo have a better strike rate than 4yo, they seem to be poor value against the 4yo looking at the A/E figures below.

F3945A69-17D0-48EB-9F19-77EBDBE4D5B6.jpeg
E82912DC-1F00-48B9-9D2E-75BB73C8E147.jpeg
 
I can sometimes go up to 800% @1.01 of my stake F Frontrunner , depending on my potential return, but obviously a few only get partially matched.

That unfortunately evolves were the queue jumpers go in @1.03.

I think I'm the king of getting horses beat @1.01 and not losing in such circumstances is good mentally and obviously strike rate.
 
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