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Thoughts and selections

Very poor from Banshee finishing only 4th. Big drift on Indian Guru out to 66/1, and she ran well enough considering the price but finished 6, I needed it in first 5, so no joy.
 

mattyboy

Yearling
I think there is a very good bet in the 3.55 at Ripon.

Outsider of the field; currently 7/1 I believe. Mark Johnston trained Zookeeper has so much potential upside, as the only 3 year old against older horses. The colt has been terrible in his last two starts, However, the runs have both been too bad to be true and he did win on seasonal debut at Musselburgh before that. The two bad runs also both came on bad ground and races on good today, on whc he has decent form and Mark Johnston;s horse often prefer decent ground.

Zookeeper is a Dubawi and has not been gelded. The dam was a Brazilian Group 1 winner. He ran really well on career debut at Doncaster beaten less than 3 lengths by Chindit who was of course an excellent 2 year old. He also beat Rhoscolyn into third, (that one now rated 100). Zookeeper runs off 71 today.

Mark Johnston has won this race three times in the last ten years. The horse has frontrun previously and is drawn 1 under Franny Norton on a speed-favouring track. The horse has two more entries in handicaps early next week, suggesting that the trainer thinks he has got him back into form and that he could be a real improver.

Really, even if he doesn;t win, he must be a stonking good bet at the current 7/1
 
5:00 Curragh - Hell Bent, 0.5 pt win @ 7/1, 0.5 pt to finish in first 3 @ BfSP

It’s a risky bet as selection ran a shocker last time in the Ulster Derby handicap, but I feel it wasn’t his true form and earlier form gives him a chance on this step down in class. He reportedly got upset in the stalls at Down Royal and ran no sort of race, he does seem to have that tendency as one of his earlier races at Navan also shows upset in stalls in comments and he ran poorly on that occasion too. Form of his other 3 races looks solid enough, he had won his maiden by 5 lengths at Sligo from Prairie Dancer, runner up has won 2 races since then including a handicap off 85. HB’s 2nd behind Southern Lights (now rated 103) at Leopardstown doesn’t look bad either. Selection has been dropped 1 lb to 89 after last run. I think his chance will depend on how he is behaving at the start.
 

Nijinsky

Yearling
Good luck with HELL BENT strong in market.

Like POPONG 4.40 Tipp...........Ran well last twice travelling into races like winner stamina giving out finishing weakly........Drops to 2m 3f from 2m 7f and 3m and drops markedely in class.

Another interestcing runner is US AND THEM 3.40 Stratford.......Was verging top class past runs include 2nd in an Arkle and 3rd in an Grand Annual hard to win with so looking for a win ..........non jiger last run winner was Joseph trained McManus runner.

Will play two win singles and small win double............Hope u guys are nailing a few.....Regards
 
Hello N Nijinsky , I've gone against you in the 4.40 picking Optical Confusion , I think it ran to a 128 lto and now has 124 OR so 4lbs in hand, it has form support and good to yielding 1 win 1 place 3 runs. I've taken the 15/2 with a boost

Good luck with your selection, I hope you win today

Stay well
 

Elite

Yearling
5:00 Curragh - Hell Bent, 0.5 pt win @ 7/1, 0.5 pt to finish in first 3 @ BfSP

It’s a risky bet as selection ran a shocker last time in the Ulster Derby handicap, but I feel it wasn’t his true form and earlier form gives him a chance on this step down in class. He reportedly got upset in the stalls at Down Royal and ran no sort of race, he does seem to have that tendency as one of his earlier races at Navan also shows upset in stalls in comments and he ran poorly on that occasion too. Form of his other 3 races looks solid enough, he had won his maiden by 5 lengths at Sligo from Prairie Dancer, runner up has won 2 races since then including a handicap off 85. HB’s 2nd behind Southern Lights (now rated 103) at Leopardstown doesn’t look bad either. Selection has been dropped 1 lb to 89 after last run. I think his chance will depend on how he is behaving at the start.
 
Thanks P PHS

4:55 Ballinrobe - 1 pt win on Manwal @ 9/4

Very tight race on paper, Manwal split 83 & 72 rated horses when running a blinder to finish 2nd @ 66/1 over this CD last month on his reappearance, 3rd horse had his rating upped to 76 after that race so I would estimate Manwal’s performance as about 78. His three main rivals here are rated 79, 78 & 75, so a tight race but Manwal has the benefit of CD form and as this race looks slightly weaker than last time I don’t think he needs to improve much to go one better.

Manwal had drifted from 28/1 to 66/1 last time, but his good run wasn’t a complete surprise as his debut race at Dundalk in December didn’t look a bad race. Although he was beaten 15 lengths in finishing 10th of 14, winning time was almost 2 seconds faster than other division on the card, the winner has performed consistently from marks of high 80s, 4th has placed at Listed level and 7th has won 3 races.
 
7:35 Chelmsford - 0.5 pt each way on Lexington Force @ 14/1

Lexington Force has not won since his debut win in February 2020 when he turned over a Godolphin hotpot who was rated 88 at the time. He has been a bit disappointing since then but his handicap mark has dropped as a result and latest effort (4th of 12 @ 25/1) at Ascot, in what looked a slightly stronger race, wasn’t bad. He has been dropped another 2 lbs after that and is now 8 lbs lower than at start of year when he was beaten 6 lengths (5th of 9) over this CD.

A few interesting things happening with him today, the headgear is on for first time, and 7 lbs claimer Liam Browne also on board for first time, and he is returning to this longer trip. His chance could depend on if combination of these things have a positive or negative effect, but if he can run to same level as the Ascot run 11 days ago, that gives him a place chance in this.
 
Lexington Force never really looked like getting involved and could finish only 6th.

4:00 Bath - 1 pt win on Sulochana @ 13/8

I might end up regretting taking on the course specialist Hidden Depths, who is 3 from 3 over this CD, including a win in this race last year from 8 lbs lower mark. But I feel the 5 lbs penalty for last week’s win makes things difficult for him, and my selection is still improving. Sulochana seems versatile regarding the going, having won on good to firm and soft already this season, so I don’t think return to firm going will be a problem. Beaten when upped in class last time but it wasn’t too bad a run. I can’t add anymore to the write up as these are my only two reasons for backing her, that I think she will act on the going and she is still improving.
 
Sulochana only 2nd, really disappointed with that. Pace was always going to be important in small field like this, and I expected mine to make the running, but instead we got outsider of the field making all to win. The winner was 0 from 21 on turf, and is usually always held up at back, and I don’t think anyone could have predicted that he will make the running today. This race shows that it is a complete guessing game when it comes to tactics as only the connections know how they are going to run the race.
 

mattyboy

Yearling
I like Molly Shaw in the 2.00 at Yarmouth today.
Chris Wall is 25/90 in non novice or maiden races at Yarmouth since start of 2017, (+17.62 points Betfair LSP). Owner is an all-time 6/21 plus 4 places here. I don;t know too much about the owner Des Thurlby, but that fairly unusual surname is more common around Norfolk, so I would guess he may have local connections.

The horse could still be an improver even as a four year in against some three year olds. Ran in a decent class 5 at Doncaster in April, (winner been a massive improver since, whilst second and third have run very respectably also). Last time out at Lingfield finished a half length second behind Gilt Edge who has since finished a half length second off nine pound higher than when just beating Molly Shaw, (the selection just a poun higher than that day). The Chris Wall filly has since been a non-runner on soft ground and seems to have improved this season for quick turf, (which it will definitely be today). Molly also won at Yarmouth last August

You won;t be getting rich at current price of 5/2, but must have a very good chance here.
 
Well done yesterday M mattyboy

5:35 Down Royal - 1 pt win bet on Glengarra @ 2/1

Shortish price again and I could have left the race alone, but he appears to have form advantage over one of his main rivals so decided to play. He was half a length ahead of Ultramarine when the pair finished 4th & 5th at the Curragh last month. Both of them then ran in different 6f maidens at Fairyhouse 12 days ago, and both were beaten narrowly, but winning time of Glengarra’s race was 0.46 secs faster. 7 furlongs today, and it could come down to which one of them is better suited by the extra distance but there is no reason to think why Glengarra won’t stay.

Howth isn’t out of this either, as he has already proved himself over the distance, he has taken a similar route to stable’s Royal County Down who won this race in 2019, having finished 2nd in the Tipperary race that RCD had also finished 2nd in. RCD went off at 2/5 though and only won by a nose, this renewal looks a bit more competitive.

I am not very confident despite the short price, but on form Glengarra looks the most likely winner to me so I have taken a chance.
 
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