• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Thoughts and selections

Thank you everyone.

3rd January

2:35 Catterick - No Bet

I considered backing Outcrop in this, and at 12/1 it was tempting. He stayed on well to win at Market Rasen on 2nd start over fences, before finishing only 6th over half a mile shorter here last time. Mistake at the 3rd last and getting hampered after the last cost him a few lengths, he was eventually beaten 22 lengths by today’s favourite Out On The Tear. 9 lbs better terms today could see him get closer over this longer trip. I have some doubts though, as all 3 of his wins have come on good going, and also he has had a lot of racing over hurdles as well as on flat before turning to chasing so I have a feeling that he may not have as much improvement as one or two of the others with lower mileage. I think the favourite is the most likely winner, but is too short a price at 6/4 as there are others like Talktomenow and Tribesmans Glory who have also made winning starts to their chasing career. Interesting race, but one I will just watch.
 

mick

Sire
F Frontrunner i often feel that in this game knowing when not to bet is half the job. Close call swerves which then mess on us by winning hurt the head as well as the wallet, but these are the ones we tend to recall while conveniently over looking the more frequent occasions when it proved the correct decision to make. Reading your above best wishes for Outcrop to run well Without winning. :)
 
Thanks mick mick , that’s what I am hoping that I will cut out mostly losers. It was again the right decision today, as Outcrop ran poorly and none of others on my shortlist won so it was a good race to leave.
 
4th January

1:10 Lingfield - win bet on Watchable @ 4/1

4 of the 6 remaining runners, namely Royal Birth (1st), Ornate (2nd), Watchable (4th) & Verne Castle (6th) met over CD two weeks ago in a race that we discussed on this thread. T tacker made a good case for Ornate that day and he was only pipped on the line by a nose and as he is 1 lb better off with the winner today, he has to be on the shortlist.

It was a quite a difficult choice for me between Ornate and Watchable, but Watchable is also well weighted with his old rival Royal Birth on their last two meetings here. He is 3 lbs better off with RB for finishing three quarters of a length behind in the race mentioned above. And he is 6 lbs better off from when they finished 2nd and 4th in class 2 race here on 4th November, gap between them was a length and quarter that day. Providing they both run to same level again today then at these weights there should be very little between them and Watchable should come out just in front.

Ornate led from stall 1 last time, he is most likely to lead again but will have to come across from the widest stall, don’t know if that will make a great deal of difference in this small field. It’s a tight race, I just prefer Watchable and I feel price of 4/1 makes it worth taking a chance.

Edit: I mistakenly said Watchable was 4 lbs better off with RB, it should be 3 lbs, corrected now.
 
Last edited:
5th January

No bet

Poor racing today, I think. I did look at 5:10 race at Wolverhampton, partly because of Urban Highway who got this thread off to a bad start by virtually refusing to race last time. I am not backing him today (so he might go and win it). Hard to really fancy anything in a race like this, but the 3yo filly Love Baileys interested me a bit mainly because of her sire Garswood’s record at the distance. She cost 32,000 guineas as a foal, but didn’t show anything in 4 runs (started big prices) for Richard Fahey including in a nursery. Has moved to Amy Murphy now, but in same ownership. Garswood’s progeny is 8 from 56 (+23 LSP) over 7 furlongs in last 1 year (wins were with 6 different horses). His 3 runners that were stepping up to this trip for first time finished 5/12 (66/1), 5/9 (150/1) & 2/11 (11/2), so no wins but all 3 ran better than their odds. I think this one, with step up to 7, and first time cheekpieces and new stable could also run a bit better than her price of 33/1. There are negatives though, she has official rating of only 38, trainer is 1 from 72 at Wolverhampton and jockey hasn’t ridden a winner for more than 3 months, so I can’t back it even at that price and will just watch.
 

Outlander

Gelding
5th January

No bet

Poor racing today, I think. I did look at 5:10 race at Wolverhampton, partly because of Urban Highway who got this thread off to a bad start by virtually refusing to race last time. I am not backing him today (so he might go and win it). Hard to really fancy anything in a race like this, but the 3yo filly Love Baileys interested me a bit mainly because of her sire Garswood’s record at the distance. She cost 32,000 guineas as a foal, but didn’t show anything in 4 runs (started big prices) for Richard Fahey including in a nursery. Has moved to Amy Murphy now, but in same ownership. Garswood’s progeny is 8 from 56 (+23 LSP) over 7 furlongs in last 1 year (wins were with 6 different horses). His 3 runners that were stepping up to this trip for first time finished 5/12 (66/1), 5/9 (150/1) & 2/11 (11/2), so no wins but all 3 ran better than their odds. I think this one, with step up to 7, and first time cheekpieces and new stable could also run a bit better than her price of 33/1. There are negatives though, she has official rating of only 38, trainer is 1 from 72 at Wolverhampton and jockey hasn’t ridden a winner for more than 3 months, so I can’t back it even at that price and will just watch.
I backed Urban Highway last time if you remember I said I had nailed it to the ground, he was top rated on speed last time but has a good few ahead of him today, top rated today is Trepidation I had a little bit on that last evening, but I'm gonna wait with my finger on the back button for Urban Highway and if it starts have a little bet on him too.Marquand sticking with this one.
 
6th January

7:15 Kempton - No bet

My most difficult leave of the year so far as I have been in two minds about this since last night, but the fact it was taking me so long to decide means I am probably best to leave it. My possible bet in the race was A Sure Welcome who is a 7 year old, I don’t expect most of the horses that old to be improving but he is one of those that seem to have got better with age. Last time at Lingfield was arguably his career best effort as he won in class 4 for first time and from a new high winning mark of 78. Up 3 lbs for that means he needs to better that effort again, which is not impossible the form he is in. I don’t think he will be far away but it’s a tough race especially with the way favourite won at Newcastle last time, 5 lb penalty may not be enough if he is effective at this different course. There is also the course specialist Soar Above, so good race but I am leaving it.
 
7th January

3:28 Ffos Las - win bet on Sandford Castle @ 3/1

Big field for this class 5 handicap chase, but recent winning form is pretty thin. 5 of the 15 have not won for more than a year, and another 5 have never won a race, although I wouldn’t rule out this group as there are couple of unexposed types in Don Herbager and Pleney with recent placed form.

My selection Sandford Castle took 20 races to finally get his first win at Taunton 8 days ago, he had been in good form though having gone very close at Wincanton two weeks earlier. His job last week was made easier by early exit of his main betting rival Misty Mai, but he jumped well on the whole and won well. He has a 7 lbs to carry but Kevin Brogan’s claim should be help a bit. Trainer Johnny Farrelly’s record with follow up wins after a quick return is pretty good as can be seen below.


45A9DB96-D453-4397-B6E5-93D76CB8C566.jpeg


Selection has placed form on the hurdles course here from a 14 lbs higher mark so course shouldn’t be a problem, though trainer’s record here is not very good which is a bit of negative. Although SC finished behind Game Line at Stratford in October, that was on good going, this going suits him better so I expect him to reverse that form. Misty Mai has won over CD, but I thought that was a weaker race, she could still run well but I think the main danger is Venetia Williams’ runner Don Herbager who was a close 3rd over shorter trip here last time in what was probably a stronger race than this, he is up 5 lbs though and on a formline through Silent Encore gives my selection an edge over him. Pleney is another one worth considering, he has place chances but needs to improve to win.
 
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