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Thoughts and selections

Coseleymon

Yearling
Tony Bethell Memorial Handicap (8:15 Pontefract) - 2 miles 1 furlong, class 4, good to firm, 6 runners

Smallest field for this race since 2003 at least, but it still looks a tricky race, my stats give me shortlist of Ottonian & Arabescato.

Ottonian - only 1 from 12 since joint Donald McCain, that win came over hurdles in March. Although beaten over 10 lengths when 4th of 6 at Carlisle 10 days ago, it doesn’t look too bad an effort as it was a stronger race and he has now been dropped 2 lbs. Not sure if that is enough of a drop, but top rated horses have a good record in this with 5 wins from last 16 runnings, 4 from 10 when there was a clear top rated. Yet to race on ground this quick.

Arabescato - much improved since the start of year with 3 wins already this year and also some placed efforts. Most of those runs came on the polytrack at Lingfield but has continued to run well on turf since joining John Butler, and won the Jamaican Flight Handicap at this course in April. Winners of that handicap don’t have a great record, have to go back to 2012 to find the last winner to go on to win another race in same year, so that is a little bit of negative. Only narrowly beaten at Lingfield on Saturday from same mark as today.

On form, Arabescato is clear choice from the two, and collateral form line through Thai Terrier also gives him an edge over Ottonian. To me, it’s a question of whether the handicapper has caught up with him, not finding it easy to answer that question, on positive side he is only 4 so may not have finished improving yet. I am not sure I would have had a bet in the race, probably would have waited to see the market for clues as I would not want to see a drift on Arabescato.
I would have to go for Ottonian the only horse that has won a class 4 , McCain has got his daughter on as well claiming 5lb and she is riding well at the moment
 
Thank you mick mick , yes older horses have a good record in this, 21% ROI backing every 6-7 yo to level stakes in last 16 runnings of this race, and 5 of last 6 have been won by those who had previously won over hurdles. As I am still only watching, and not betting, I am not too bothered by the non runner.

Agree C Coseleymon, class was a big part of my stats for this race. McCain 0 from 3 in this race but two of them were very big prices.
 
3:20 Salisbury (good to firm) - class 3 handicap for fillies aged 3yo+ (effectively a 3yo as there are no older fillies in the race) over 10 furlongs, 5 runners

Stats give me shortlist of Amy Beach, Mirage Mac & Talbeyah

Amy Beach - gave me my only winner last month when winning a novice over this CD. That race got weakened by non runners and she didn’t need to improve on her earlier effort at Chepstow when she had been beaten 6 lengths by Talbeyah. Strictly at the weights, she has a chance of reversing that but winner has improved since. Was due to run at Doncaster last Friday, but was taken out, reason given was bruised foot.

Mirage Mac - won her first 3 starts (2 novice races & a nursery off 74) as 2yo, including her only run on turf. Did not progress in 3 runs on all weather earlier in the year, but has been given a break. Not many horses win their first 3 starts at 2, so she does have ability, and form of those 3 wins is not bad so I will keep her on shortlist.

Talbeyah - unplaced on Wolverhampton debut in November, but left that form well behind on reappearance to win a novice at Chepstow by 6 lengths from one of today’s rivals Amy Beach. Stepped up to Listed race at Goodwood next time, and she finished 4th of 8 (beaten 3 1/4 lengths). Form of both those races looks strong, so I don’t think she needs to improve much today.

It’s possible Amy Beach could improve, but I think she needs to as other two have stronger form so my decision would have between those two. Talbeyah has the strongest form imo, and as Mirage Mac has already had 7 runs there may not be huge amount of improvement left in her, so Talbeyah would have been a clear choice for me if I was betting.

Slight negative in betting, and doubts because the owner also runs the favourite, so there is a possibility that she is being used to keep the weights down for the other one.
 
8:00 Kempton (standard to slow) - 4yo+ class 6 handicap over 11 furlongs, 14 runners

Big field low-grade handicap, a race like this takes too much time to look at but just trying to see if my methods work on different types of races.

Stats give me shortlist of Thermal, Mr Zee, Savitar, Summer Valley, Double Legend & Genuine Approval

Thermal - won two of her last 4 races (both wins at Lingfield, AW & turf), but is not the most consistent, followed up previous win with a very poor effort. Still lightly raced enough, but overall form is not convincing enough for me. Trainer also runs Summer Valley

Mr Zee - winner of a classified Stakes here at start of year, and won his first handicap at Leicester last time. Up 3 lbs for that but he is still open to improvement and form of last race is working out well.

Savitar - only 1 win from 21, but is potentially well handicapped on some of the 2019 form. Recent form not so good but not running too badly, including when 5th in a very similar race to this here last time on first try at the distance.

Summer Valley - one of two Gary Moore runners in the race. Well backed when dominating a small field at Brighton to win easily last week and is 4 lbs well in under a penalty. She had been held off similar marks last season, and although there is every possibility that she has improved as she has only had 7 runs, on previous form she doesn’t interest me at a short enough price.

Double Legend - two of his three career wins have come here at Kempton (not for this trainer). Those wins came off OR 57 & 58, judged on those and other efforts here he is on a good mark of 52 now. But more recent efforts, including here, don’t suggest he is ready to take advantage yet.

Genuine Approval - 8yo mare, her last 3 wins have all come at Wolverhampton but she has run well here too. Her win last month came after 4 poor runs since start of year that had seen her handicap mark drop to 50. She has been raised 1 lb for the narrow win, but still looks well treated if in same form as she is still 6 lbs lower than when a close 2nd over 12f here in March last year.

My final choice would have been between Mr Zee, Savitar & Genuine Approval. Mr Zee is youngest of these, but he does need to improve and at current price I don’t feel he represents any value. Savitar is interesting, there are so many similarities with his last race, very similar strength of race as last time, he is running after almost exactly same number of days, draw is very similar, even his current price is same as last time, he ran a respectable 5th of 14, might run similarly again, he is a tempting each way option at 18/1. The form pick is Genuine Approval though, she is 8 and you have to wonder about consistency with older horses, but she is still feasibly treated and if she can run to similar level as last time then she should be thereabouts.
 

brian

Yearling
yes a good and logical read, as for older horses.
M Stoute in an interview a few years ago explained why he had a couple of 5yo+ horses in his stables, at that age
the horses are fully exposed and he can gauge the merits of his younger horses by adding a few lbs to the older
ones and running them together.
By running them 2 or 3 times a day there was no bother keeping them fit, he pulled in a few decent handicaps
back in the day.
never discount an older horse from a decent stable in a handicap.
 
Thank you mick mick and B brian

Bittersweet feeling about the 8:00 result, it’s always pleasing when you get it right after spending hours on a race, but at same time there is a regret that I am not betting them at the moment. Of the final 3 on my shortlist, Genuine Approval (10/1) won, Mr Zee (6/1) 2nd, Savitar (22/1) 7th.

Results have not been bad since I decided to take a break from betting, and I feel like I am closing in on finding out what works and what doesn’t, but it’s only been 2 weeks and results could simply be down to chance, so I am going to keep testing things without betting till end of month, and then make a decision on way forward.
 

Coseleymon

Yearling
Thank you mick mick and B brian

Bittersweet feeling about the 8:00 result, it’s always pleasing when you get it right after spending hours on a race, but at same time there is a regret that I am not betting them at the moment. Of the final 3 on my shortlist, Genuine Approval (10/1) won, Mr Zee (6/1) 2nd, Savitar (22/1) 7th.

Results have not been bad since I decided to take a break from betting, and I feel like I am closing in on finding out what works and what doesn’t, but it’s only been 2 weeks and results could simply be down to chance, so I am going to keep testing things without betting till end of month, and then make a decision on
Thank you mick mick and B brian

Bittersweet feeling about the 8:00 result, it’s always pleasing when you get it right after spending hours on a race, but at same time there is a regret that I am not betting them at the moment. Of the final 3 on my shortlist, Genuine Approval (10/1) won, Mr Zee (6/1) 2nd, Savitar (22/1) 7th.

Results have not been bad since I decided to take a break from betting, and I feel like I am closing in on finding out what works and what doesn’t, but it’s only been 2 weeks and results could simply be down to chance, so I am going to keep testing things without betting till end of month, and then make a decision on way forward.
Good luck whatever you decide to do but personally i would be gutted to spend time getting the winner and not getting the financial reward
 

mick

Sire
Results have not been bad since I decided to take a break from betting, and I feel like I am closing in on finding out what works and what doesn’t, but it’s only been 2 weeks and results could simply be down to chance, so I am going to keep testing things without betting till end of month, and then make a decision on way forward.
Your above is a positive plan with no grey areas and shows good discipline. No one can force us to bet and at times this can prove our biggest edge.
 
Thank you C Coseleymon , mick mick , mlmrob mlmrob

Of course it’s disappointing when you spend time and pick a winner and don’t back it, but the way I am looking at this is as a learning exercise. Whenever we are learning something, there are usually no immediate rewards but knowledge gained is often beneficial in the future, so I never see time spent on learning as wasted time. If my methods are sound then good results should continue into next month or whenever I decide to start betting again, so I am prepared to wait. But if they don’t, then I will know this good spell was down to chance/luck, either way I would have learnt something.

4:30 Nottingham (good to firm) - class 5 handicap for 3yo fillies over 10 furlongs, 8 runners

Stats give me just one runner, Coupe De Champagne

Form

Winless in 5 runs as a 2yo, but 3 from 7 so far this year with the wins coming at Lingfield, Wolverhampton & Kempton. Only problem is all her winning/placed form has come on all weather, there is nothing in her pedigree to suggest why she should be better on A/W than turf but evidence on the course so far points to that being the case and I feel her turf mark of 75 may still be a bit high. She is dropping in class though and as she has only had 4 runs on turf, it may be bit too soon to dismiss her as an all weather horse.

I haven’t looked at other runners in race, but there are a few unexposed ones so chances are that at least one or two of them will improve.

I think she could run well and perhaps finish in first 3 or 4. She could win it if none of the others improve, but that seems unlikely. For this reason, it would have been a fairly easy swerve for me in the win market at least.
 
Poor yesterday with Coupe De Champagne finishing 7th of 8.

1:35 Sandown (good) - class 4 2yo maiden over 7 furlongs, 10 runners

Stats give me shortlist of Native Trail, Implore, Lark Lane, Lets Fly Again, Nasim & Royal Patronage, which is no help at all really as it includes the first 5 in betting, so normally I would swerve the race as it would be difficult to find value in situations like this.

Only one of the six shortlisted runners has run before, Royal Patronage who finished 5th of 8 on debut, that form is just ok and I will be surprised if it’s good enough against some nicely bred newcomers from top stables unless he improves a lot. With newcomers, I use a combination of sire, damsire, and trainer filters to narrow the list.

In this race, my final 3 are Implore, Let’s Fly Again & Nasim and it’s hard to choose between them. Narrow preference for Nasim, as Andrew Balding does well with 2yo’s including on debut. And that record gets a lot better when they are ridden by Oisin Murphy, he is 13 from 97 (+66 LSP) on stable’s newcomers and has shown a level stakes profit on these for last 6 seasons. Pedigree looks ok, his sire Galileo Gold has made a good start with his 2yo’s with a couple of good horses Ebro River & Osculo, although neither of them won on debut. Nasim’s dam Ashwaq finished 3rd on her debut (7f) in a maiden at Newmarket, he is her first foal.

So if I had to pick one, Nasim would be my selection, not very confident of a win but I think he could run well.
 
Thank you RyanWe RyanWe . Some days I find it hard to get motivated, when results don’t go my way like yesterday with none of my final 3 shortlisted horses managing to even place (finished 4th, 5th & 6th), but I can never stay away long from racing. Some great results for you on your thread this week, well done.

5:50 Limerick (good) - 3yo+ maiden over 1 mile, 16 runners

Despite the big field, stats give me just one runner, Offiah, so taking a closer look at it

He has had 3 runs, best effort came on debut when finishing 3rd of 13 at Dundalk in October. Form of that race worked pretty well, winner won a handicap off 83, runner up has won a maiden and placed in handicap off 96, 4th won a maiden when rated 81, 5th yet to win but rated 76. That form would give him a winning chance in this, but he was very disappointing on next run at same track when sent off 1/2 favourite. Gelded after that run, he returned to action with 4th of 17 at Cork last month, that looked a weak race but so is this. And he was the only one among first 9 finishers who was a without a recent run, and the big drift in betting (4/1 to 11/1) suggested he may have needed it.

If I was betting, it would have been a 50/50 decision on this. It is a weak race, and form of his debut run makes him one to beat but next two runs create doubts. I think I would have waited till late to see the market before deciding, and only backed as long as there wasn’t a big drift.
 

mick

Sire
Over the years a behaviour i have noticed from many backers when matters are not going to plan is to blame anyone or thing other than themselves. The time would be better spent looking at there own MO seeking to identify why a previous profitable approach is no longer working as well as it did. Not an easy ask or a pleasant task but when the need is there then swerving it will inevitably make the situation worse.

On forums given the above you often witness the member concerned will stop posting and this is understandable but imo F Frontrunner is to be applauded for doing the opposite by overtly sharing what is occurring and how he is reacting. Part of his approach is to stop betting while conducting his review and this shows good discipline and makes perfect sense.
 
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1:35 Lingfield (standard to slow) - 3yo+ class 3 handicap over 10 furlongs, 7 runners

Stats give me shortlist of High Commissioner, Lawn Ranger & Master The Stars

Form

High Commissioner - 2 from 5 on AW compared to none from 13 on turf, so return to AW look a positive. The two wins came off 79 & 82, even the non-winning runs don’t look bad, like the close 4th at Kempton (OR 82) & 2nd at Wolverhampton (OR 79) last year. He is on 85 now, so I think he does need to improve a bit, but as he is still lightly raced on surface, that is not impossible.

Lawn Ranger - dropping in class, and slowly the handicap mark is also dropping. Some pieces of his form look very good, a very close 2nd in class 2 handicap at Chester from 4 lbs higher mark last year for instance. He doesn’t have the consistency though and his turf record is better than his AW record.

Master The Stars - consistently runs well, had the result overturned in his favour by stewards when narrowly beaten by Good Birthday at Newmarket (pair were 3 lengths clear of rest), GB won the Zealand Gold Cup on next start. MtS was 2nd at Haydock last time, although he was beaten 8 1/2 lengths, the winner was a very lightly raced improver and there were couple of course winners behind, so it still looks very strong form to me. Return to AW not a problem as he has run well on it too.

After looking at the form, I think High Commissioner needs to improve so my choice would have been between the other two. Lawn Ranger has a chance on his best form but lacks the consistency and I don’t think he has his ideal conditions today so doubt today is the day, I can see him winning a race this season though. Master The Stars looks the most convincing of the three on my list, I think he already has the best form and there is still possibility of a bit more improvement.

Couple of slight negatives, Ed Dunlop has gone 17 runners without a winner but I don’t think it’s that serious. And he is on a bit of drift in market at the moment.
 
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