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Thoughts and selections

Larry

Mare
Hi dave58 dave58 looks a very good systems strike rate about the same as betting favourites but obviously a hell of a lot better SPs, hope you’re soon winning with real money. Don’t want the secrets to the honeypot but how did you get that list of trainers I’ve not heard of a few of them on the list
 

dave58

Administrator
Hi Larry Larry, no secret at all - just using hrb.
Chris is the guy that runs it, and as far as I know he's still offering a free trial to our members.
I'm rubbish with this so can't post a link or stuff, but try putting hrb in the search bit and hopefully that will get you there - if not then pm me and I'll try to help.
 

retriever

Gelding
Thanks dave58 dave58 That's very generous of you.
An insight, hopefully for me, in 'keeping it simple'....something I am guilty of not doing with my HRB systems.
I did have a bash at doing this system but couldn't get the strike rate up high enough.
I also had way more trainers than that and may have gone back to 2016.

I have noticed with my 5f races I've been doing recently ( 4yo+ All-aged Handicaps ) quite a number of the older and more experienced horses winning. I've been quite 'surprised' by how frequently really.

Fun fact.....1 Horse Year = 6.5 Human Years
.
 
Excellent post dave58 dave58 , thanks for not only sharing the system, but also how you work on creating a system.

Anyone starting on creating systems should read these quoted lines a few times. It’s not enough to know that something works, it’s important to know why something should work, get the logic right and you can’t go wrong. You clearly work out your reasoning on why a system should work before you start creating it, that’s why you make them pay.

Basic idea, why would anyone keep an older horse in training with all the associated costs unless they thought it was worth it?
No point in filtering out race type, distance, going etc etc - with a horse that old the trainer should have worked out what suits the horse by now.
Regarding the age, that was a bit ambient to be honest, just going on how long the horses I have owned tend to carry on racing - ignore the top age, hrb just demanded a number.
After that I just checked out the trainers with a reasonable number of qualifiers.
End of analysis - anything else is going to be backfitting imo.
 

runnerjp

Colt
Gents, going back to the older horses thing. I did say I would highlight the selections that my idea came up with, but I'm sorry I forgot all about it.
Here's the 'system' - thinking behind it follows (can't work out copy/paste in on my phone so bear with me).

2018 to date
Horse age 8-15
Trainer :
Allwood S
Bourne D
Brown A
Cantillon D
Croke P
Cronin W
Guestiero J
Hamilton Mrs A
Johnson B
Lexton MrsD
Makin Mrs V
Maundrell G
O'Sullivan E
Rigby Mrs D
Weston M
Widger
This is s spot on post dave58 dave58 just at the right time for my question 😊

I do have 1 question around the trainer selection.... What made you want to select those trainers out the bunch??

Rose Loxton has a good strike but didn't appear on the list. Is there something glaring obvious I am not taking in
 

dave58

Administrator
Hi runnerjp runnerjp - yes, what is glaringly obvious is that I can't read my own writing!
Rose Loxton is there on the list , but for some reason I typed it as Lexton Mrs D - my apologies.

I filter by roi and strike rate - ideally I look for over 30% on each but if one parameter is slightly lower then as long as the other makes up for it then that's fine with me.
Basically it's experience I guess - it's what suits my way of working.
 
Last edited:
Bit short of time, so not going into as much detail today but I have looked at the race in same way.

2:05 Chester

My stats give me short list of Tacitus and Tadreeb, race sample for this was quite small though so I am not very confident about it.

Both horses have a similar profile in that they made their debuts at backend of last season, and both showed some improvement on their returns last month. There is not a lot in it but Tadreeb’s form looks stronger to me, winner of his race easily won a handicap off 83 next time and is now rated 92. Tacitus’ race has not worked out so well with the winner beaten in handicaps twice off 83.

Both horses are open to improvement. Today, I am looking at the jockey angle for possible improvement from their last runs. It’s interesting that Tacitus was ridden by an apprentice last time, and Martin Dwyer takes over today. Jim Crowley replaces Ben Curtis who rode Tadreeb last time. I find it interesting that Crowley is at Chester and not Haydock, where the owner has a runner in Listed race.

As I type this, just seen that Tacitus is a non runner now. If I was betting, then Tadreeb would have been my selection anyway, but with a negative that I am not confident about the stats I used.
 

runnerjp

Colt
Hi runnerjp runnerjp - yes, what is glaringly obvious is that I can't read my own writing!
Rose Loxton is there on the list , but for some reason I typed it as Lexton Mrs D - my apologies.

I filter by roi and strike rate - ideally I look for over 30% on each but if one parameter is slightly lower then as long as the other makes up for it then that's fine with me.
Basically it's experience I guess - it's what suits my way of working.
Haha I sat on that page for 20 minutes sifting through the trainer thinking .... What have I missed here :D

Thank for clarification....added to notes and reviewing current systems to see if I can upgrade them as such with you 30% rule
 

dave58

Administrator
Just thought I'd mention there's another qualifier from my older horses idea today - Nikki Steel in the 5:42 Uttoxeter.
I wouldn't normally mention it, but hrb showed it at 16/1 last night and it's now at 7/1.
It's got none of my hard earned on it, so just watch the bugger win now !!!
 
2:32 Kelso - class 3 handicap chase over 3 and quarter miles, 9 runners


Stats give me shortlist of Gwencily Berbas, Haul Away, Court Dreaming & Charlie Snow Angel, so taking a closer look at these.

Gwencily Berbas - Grade 2 winning juvenile hurdler in Ireland, only 1 from 19 over fences, that win came in a beginners chase at Roscommon nearly 4 years ago but he is potentially well handicapped on that form. Ran ok on first start for David Pipe last time when finishing 3rd from this mark.

Haul Away - 4 times winner over hurdles, not done as well over fences so far but still early days as he has only had 4 runs. Finished 2nd of only 2 finishers at Bangor last summer from 10 lbs higher, that form gives him a chance but a few poor efforts since then. Won last time (Worcester, 2m7.5f), this looks a tougher race and I have slight doubts about this 3 furlongs longer trip, so reluctantly dropping him from my list.

Court Dreaming - won on his only previous visit to this course, that was over hurdles back in 2018 but looks very strong form. He had Mighty Thunder back in 2nd, who won this year’s Scottish National, pair were first two in betting and pulled clear of rest. Court Dreaming has not done anywhere near as well as MT but there is still time as he is only 8, and he is only 1 lb higher than his narrow win at Carlisle in October.

Charlie Snow Angel - 12yo, likes it here, 2 wins, and has finished out of the frame only twice from 11 visits. But he usually runs at a lower level than this. I respect course form, but I will be surprised if he can win this, and price reflects this so he is dropped from short list.

That leaves me Gwencily Berbas and Court Dreaming, and it would have been difficult to choose between them if I was betting. Looking at the trainers, Nicky Richards has a better record here but David Pipe doesn’t send many horses here. Market is not giving any strong clues either, maybe slight preference for Gwencily Berbas.
 
Court Dreaming was a non runner, Gwencily Berbas (5/1) ran well enough (short of 2.04 in running) but could not get past the winner Do Not Disturb.
 
It was another poor month for my bets, only 1 winner (7/2) from 12 bets for LSP of -7.50. This prolonged poor run has prompted me to take a break from betting and do a proper assessment of my methods, so I am not expecting to have any bets for next 1 month at least. I am still posting my thoughts on one race a day, and will try to do a weekly update of results.

YTD it’s 11 winners from 53 bets for LSP of +17.33

January (+25.00 from 10 bets)
February (+2.00 from 8 bets)
March (+2.83 from 7 bets)
April (-5.00 from 16 bets)
May (-7.50 from 12 bets)

EPSP
1/5/21Punchestown - 2m Grade 1 Champion Four Year Old HurdleSaint Sam5th of 911.0012.00E/W
2/5/21Salisbury - 1m 2f Handicap (3yo, Class 4)Big Boy Bobby5th of 65.505.00
5/5/21Chester - 5f Handicap (3yo, Class 2)Harmony Lil4th Of 8 6.506.50
6/5/21Tipperary - 2m 2f NH Flat RaceFocus Point 14th Of 1526.0017.00E/W
7/5/21Ascot - 5f Fillies Maiden (2yo, Class 4)Wild Beauty 6th Of 83.503.50
10/5/21Ffos Las - 3m Handicap Chase (Class 5)Twojayslad5th Of 8 9.0011.00
13/5/21Salisbury - 1m 2f Fillies’ Novice (3yo+, Class 5)Amy Beach 1st Of 76.004.5050p R4 on EP
14/5/21Hamilton - 1m 4f Handicap (Class 3)First Impression 2nd Of 63.002.75
16/5/21Naas - 6f Group 3 Lacken Stakes (3yo)Mooniesta 3rd Of 97.509.00
17/5/21Redcar - 6f Novice (2yo, Class 5)Stardust Gambler4th Of 134.336.50
18/5/21Hexham - 2m 4f Novices Hurdle (class 4)Enemy At The Gate7th Of 1017.00N/aE/W (4 places)
20/5/21Market Rasen - 2m 4f Handicap Chase (class 4)Just Call Me Al5th Of 106.005.00
 

markfinn

Sire
F Frontrunner as Mick points out where else could you realise 32% ? - there are times when there is a glut of qualifying races and times when there is a famine of such - I always find that when I go looking for a bet / trying to force one, it invariably goes wrong - today my ideas would suggest that from all the horses running today only 3 would be of interest - but looking at the races all are now proven not to be backable with confidence

1622449077352.png

If I were pushed the 16.15 dutch bet would be the one - but not - pushed so happy to clock the result and draw no conclusion about the result, the good bets stand out and these do not.

The good betting opportunities defiantly come in waves and recently the opportunities have not been there for me at least May is not a good month for consistant racing - unknown 2yrlds - improving 3 and 4 yrlds - transition from winter to summer jumping - add in some unexpected weather patterns !!!!! - extra caution may be advised.

32% good outcome.
 
Thank you mick mick and markfinn markfinn , good points made by both of you, and you are both right that we should be happy to get that kind of ROI. Looking back though, I can see that nearly all of that profit is down to my first bet of the year, a 14/1 winner on 2nd January, so it feels like I have stood in one place for last 5 months which is not the worst thing I suppose, but I feel if I kept betting in my current form I would have started moving backwards.


4:25 Punchestown (yielding to soft) - 2 miles beginners chase, 9 runners

Stats were no help with this race as they only eliminated the four that have no chance according to betting anyway and left me with shortlist of 5. So, normally it would be a no bet race as I can’t find an angle into it, but looking at form of 5 runners just for interest.

Fan De Blues - has not won since his debut but is dropping out of Graded company for first time since getting narrowly beaten at a short price in beginners chase at Killarney last summer. He was clear of the 3rd, and the winner Benruben won a Grade 3 novice next time so it’s pretty strong form.

Flindt - won a handicap hurdle off 116 in January, so needs to improve on chasing debut with couple of 130+ horses in here, but he is a fairly consistent performer and could run well if taking to fences.

Recent Revelations - won a maiden hurdle last year, but that remains his only win from 21 starts. Hasn’t done enough in 5 runs over fences, difficult to fancy on form.

Russian Diamond - comfortable winner of a maiden hurdle at Down Royal (December 2019) and that form gives him a chance, but has only run 3 times since then and fell on chasing debut at Galway festival when last seen. Has the potential, but too risky judged on form.

Raya Time - 2nd in a Grade 2 Handicap chase at Punchestown last time, and he is a qualifier on a system I mentioned few weeks ago about Henry de Bromhead horses next time after they run well at Punchestown festival. His overall form doesn’t look that strong though, and has been beaten in similar races before. But I will keep on list as there is still possibility of improvement.

So, form suggests the winner will come from Fan De Blues, Flindt or Raya Time. Flindt will do well to win a race like this on first try over fences, so my decision would have been between other two. Fan De Blues is dropping back in distance, but I don’t think that is a problem. Both are about same price at 13/8, Fan De Blues has stronger form in the book, but Raya Time has possibility of more improvement. I wouldn’t have bet, but this is just to see what works out better.
 

mick

Sire
F Frontrunner just out of interest do you have longer term figs for how your Irish wagers compare with your English ones.? My knowledge of the former remains limited probably because i only look when i have an ex Irish horse as a possible or they are raiding a 0-60 over here. Do you find any differences to your general MO are needed when working an Irish race. ?
 
I would have got involved with FDB around 6/4 but showing odds on now.

Trainer is 5/7 when only having one runner in the race in May at track and the 2/2 with horse the horse had a rating : 135 and 139.

FDB is rated 135
 
Hi mick mick, when I used to make my selections based on ratings (which were a combination of RPR, Topspeed and OR), I found I actually did much better on Irish racing than UK. It could have been that at time I was mostly concentrating on top meetings, and other thing I thought was a factor in this was that Irish races generally have bigger fields so more chance of a true run race and why I thought ratings worked better there.

Since changing my methods to stats, I admit I have done worse on Irish racing that UK, but I still have a look. About changes in MO when working races from two countries, not really but one big difference I find is that in Ireland a few top stables dominate, Willie Mullins on NH for example, so there is less chance of smaller stables getting a winner so I tend to not back from smaller stables there often unless I really like one. It’s different with UK racing as there is a lot more racing.
 
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