Thank you
mick and
markfinn , good points made by both of you, and you are both right that we should be happy to get that kind of ROI. Looking back though, I can see that nearly all of that profit is down to my first bet of the year, a 14/1 winner on 2nd January, so it feels like I have stood in one place for last 5 months which is not the worst thing I suppose, but I feel if I kept betting in my current form I would have started moving backwards.
4:25 Punchestown (yielding to soft) - 2 miles beginners chase, 9 runners
Stats were no help with this race as they only eliminated the four that have no chance according to betting anyway and left me with shortlist of 5. So, normally it would be a no bet race as I can’t find an angle into it, but looking at form of 5 runners just for interest.
Fan De Blues - has not won since his debut but is dropping out of Graded company for first time since getting narrowly beaten at a short price in beginners chase at Killarney last summer. He was clear of the 3rd, and the winner Benruben won a Grade 3 novice next time so it’s pretty strong form.
Flindt - won a handicap hurdle off 116 in January, so needs to improve on chasing debut with couple of 130+ horses in here, but he is a fairly consistent performer and could run well if taking to fences.
Recent Revelations - won a maiden hurdle last year, but that remains his only win from 21 starts. Hasn’t done enough in 5 runs over fences, difficult to fancy on form.
Russian Diamond - comfortable winner of a maiden hurdle at Down Royal (December 2019) and that form gives him a chance, but has only run 3 times since then and fell on chasing debut at Galway festival when last seen. Has the potential, but too risky judged on form.
Raya Time - 2nd in a Grade 2 Handicap chase at Punchestown last time, and he is a qualifier on a system I mentioned few weeks ago about Henry de Bromhead horses next time after they run well at Punchestown festival. His overall form doesn’t look that strong though, and has been beaten in similar races before. But I will keep on list as there is still possibility of improvement.
So, form suggests the winner will come from Fan De Blues, Flindt or Raya Time. Flindt will do well to win a race like this on first try over fences, so my decision would have been between other two. Fan De Blues is dropping back in distance, but I don’t think that is a problem. Both are about same price at 13/8, Fan De Blues has stronger form in the book, but Raya Time has possibility of more improvement. I wouldn’t have bet, but this is just to see what works out better.