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  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
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Thoughts and selections

mick mick,

good old Jimmy!

I was already old, when I first went to Haight/Ashbury. Not much to write home about, though I love San Francisco and hate LA ( except for Santa Anita and Venice).
A while ago, but a guy was stood on the sidewalk shouting "hugs for 50 cents!" ( begging, really).
When he saw the daughter who was with me, he goes "hugs for free; hugs for free!".

Coming back and just starting to get out of Haight, a big black fella came up and shouts " hey man, you can't do that in this country".
Dunno what he was on about, but the daughter, sensibly, dragged me away and quickly flagged down a taxi.

Peace and love, man! :)🙁:D

As there's no racing to pore over tonight, I'll tell you another strange thing:
We were across the bridge in Sausalito, waiting for a bus back ( only a few dollars). There were two old gals waiting at the stop with us. Got chatting, and one was from New York.
As we conversed, she said " I love that "Eastenders" and always watch it (.fs!). I asked could she understand it. She said " no , but we have sub-titles". :D

It takes all sorts, and just as well, I suppose, or we'd never get a decent price.
 
Running total = -5 after 5 selections

11:55 Wetherby - bit short of time so I am not going into too much detail about my reasoning, but I have backed African Glory (16/1) in this. These type of races can be as much about jockeys as they are about horses, so that has played a part in my selection. Bruce Lynn, the jockey of African Glory, is in very good form, 3 winners and 3 places from 9 rides in past month (2 of the unplaced were 66/1 & 22/1), his record over the past year is pretty good too, although only 1 other winner in last year, he does get a high percentage of his horses placed or finish in first half of field even at big prices. Has also placed both times he has ridden this horse (2nd @ 28/1 & 3rd @ 11/1)

African Glory has had only 7 runs so far, with two placings. Was well beaten on only previous try at around this trip (from 9 lbs higher on good going), but pedigree suggests she should stay so maybe worth another try. She is related to heavy going winners so going shouldn’t be a problem, and she carries a low weight that should be an advantage in these conditions.

Another one I thought should go well off a low weight is Oliver’s Island, and he has shortened in betting this morning. On a line through Whoa Black Betty, African Glory has the advantage over Oliver’s Island. Wind Of Hope is another to consider at a price as he is only 2 lbs higher than when a close 2nd in this race last year.

Not an easy race with a big field, I will be happy enough if my selection African Glory can place.
 
Thank you. As I said I will be happy with a place, so 4th is good enough even if she was beaten a long way by the first two. Small regret that I didn’t follow the money on the winner as it was on my shortlist, three horses mentioned finish 1st, 3rd & 4th so that was pleasing in itself after the time spent on race.
 
Running total = -6 after 6 selections

1:15 Market Rasen - had a very busy morning so couldn’t post earlier, and have to keep my reasoning brief. I have backed Theflyingportrait (9/2) in this, although he is 11yo now he his still the clear class horse in this race. Has won better races than this and this is the first time he drops to class 4 in more than 4 years. Big weight, but I think Lilly Pinchin is good value for her 5 lbs claim. Pinchin rode for the trainer for first time on Boxing Day and had 13/2 placer and 6/4 winner from two rides. One negative is the going as he has never won on going this soft, but most of others in race aren’t exactly soft ground horses - a couple have won on soft but none in a handicap, so I don’t think it’s a huge negative and I hope his class will compensate for it. I think Zoutoise is the biggest danger, as she has done well in these conditions and she is totally unexposed and open to improvement, and money has come for her this morning.
 
Not even close today. I read that race wrong, really didn’t fancy the fav on his chase debut, but he has won very well in the end.
 
Thanks mick mick, happy new year to you and everyone.

I am going to try and be more disciplined this year, has I mentioned somewhere that I have on average about 1 bet a day so that’s between 300-400 bets a year, I think I can easily cut them down to half and hopefully cut out some of the losers in the process. How long this disciplined approach lasts could well depend on how the results go, but let’s see. I will still be spending time looking at races most days and will post my thoughts but will make it clear if I am having a bet or not.

1st January - NO BET

12:52 Tramore - I did spend quite a bit of time on this race and came close to backing Silk Worm, but wasn't totally convinced so decided to leave it. Things in her favour were, her only win came here in a bumper (although it was an ordinary bumper). I think the drop back in trip is interesting, especially because trainer has a good record in the 2m 5f race on this card having won that race twice and have others run well in it. She would have had a choice so interesting that she has dropped her back to 2 miles. Weakened badly over longer trip here last time, but she also made a couple of really mistakes that’s why I am not totally convinced, this is a weaker race though. I saw Saol Iontach as main danger, 17 race maiden but she has form in better races than this including last time so I think she will run well.
 
2nd January

3:00 Sandown - win bet on Seeyouatmidnight @ 14/1

Strong field for this veterans chase final, Seeyouatmidnight has been a star for his stable having won at up to Grade 2 level over both hurdles and fences. He has had only 3 runs since finishing lame in the 2018 Grand National having been sent off 4th favourite for that race. He missed whole of 2018-19 season and finished tailed off in a Listed chase at Kelso in February last year before winning at Carlisle 2 weeks later. He had another 9 months off before pulling up on return at Haydock last month.

Although Sandy Thomson has a good record with horses on first run after a break, the older horses naturally tend to need a run before showing their best. Thomson’s record with older horses 2nd time out is very impressive as shown below.

4BAFA5BC-363B-496D-AA76-DE9BE05BBE6F.jpeg

He is 13yo now, and not many of them win even in these veteran races so that maybe a negative but Thomson rarely sends horses this far south, and I don’t think he will be sending his star horse here if he didn’t think he had a chance.

Theatre Guide has finished 2nd & 3rd in this race for last two years, he is 1 lb lower now and could run well again despite being 14yo now. Last year’s winner Jepeck is back on same mark as last year and is another danger.
 
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F Frontrunner ,

I used to love Sandown Park, especially in the summer, and have often walked up that hill from the train station. Even so, I cannot think of any reason why course specialsation would give much of an advantage, so I haven't ruled out your selection.
Perhaps course experience is important - I don't know - but I would be concerned by the presence of the Henderson runners ( 2) and that of Nicholls.

That said, having read Steeplechasing Steeplechasing 's piece earlier, I have, indeed, had a small place bet ( to 5 places) on Thomson's.
All the best!

Also, I had a small EW in the 2.25. I'm no expert here, but I backed Galice Maculo EW. The figures on Inform Racing looked good.

There's nothing outstanding or price attractive for me today.
 
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