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Thoughts and selections

4th April

4:25 Fairyhouse - place only bet (to finish in first 3) on Yukon Lil @ 13/8 (I have actually backed some at bigger prices on exchange but will use the BF Sportsbook price for records)

Yukon Lil makes her handicap debut on a mark of 139, which doesn’t look bad judged on some of her efforts. She made her chasing debut at Cork in November, beating Scarlet And Dove & Mount Ida. Scarlet And Dove has since won 3 races including a Grade 2 & a Grade 3. Mount Ida also won a Grade 3 before winning the Kim Muir at Cheltenham easily from a mark of 142 and is now rated 150+.

Her 3rd behind Elimay & Shattered Love on her last chase start doesn’t look too bad either. She has since then had a run over hurdles last week, and that is something that is puzzling me a bit. I don’t necessarily see it as a negative as it’s not unusual for novice chasers to revert to hurdles, and 2 of the last 7 winners of this race had run in a hurdles race on their previous start, but it’s still puzzling me why they ran her in that race so close to this one. It’s not like she needed to run as her previous run had been only 6 weeks earlier. Anyway she won easily as she should have as she was long odds on (1/6).

She has run at this festival on two previous occasions, both times in bumpers. Finishing 3rd/17 (5/1) on her debut in 2018 and 2nd/12 (9/4 2nd fav) in 2019.

Favourites have quite a good overall record in this race although none have won in last 5 runnings. 6 of the 11 winners came from first two in betting and that is another positive.

I was considering backing her to win, but it’s a competitive race and my confidence is still low so I have instead gone for a place only bet as I think there are a few reasons to expect a good run from her.
 
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Yukon Lil fell at the 2nd after another drift

5th April

2:45 Plumpton - no bet

Most of my bets lately seem to drift as soon as I back them, I must be doing something wrong. So I was waiting for the market moves this morning and my fancy Frankie Baby has gone from 10/3 to 5/1 in one move, so that has helped me decide to swerve. I wasn’t very confident about taking on the odds on shot anyway, I wanted to oppose it because I thought it was poor value at 8/15 but it might still win it. It really is a very poor race, Frankie Baby is a 10-race maiden but is still unexposed over fences after just two runs. He was unfancied on chase debut (28/1), ran ok for some way before tailing off and pulling up. He came in for a bit of support last week at Fontwell (9/1 into 7/2) but was always pushed along and was last of 3 finishers. Both those races were better than this one though and I think return to this longer trip will suit. Also has a good conditional jockey claiming 7 lbs.

Kaphumor was the only other I considered in this race, he is yet to finish within 30 lengths of the winner in any of his 4 runs, but 3 of those were in maiden hurdles won by 120+ horses and he is on a low enough mark of 85. Change of headgear from cheekpieces to visor could see him improve.

Just for interest, I was watching an interview of conditional jockey Caoilin Quinn (who rides Frankie Baby in this race). He was being interviewed after he lost his 10 lbs claim after winning a big handicap at Carlisle last week, he said that the plan was always to not lose the claim too quickly and take it into the next season. I was wondering what he meant. Maybe protect the claim for the big handicaps? Do all claiming jockeys do that?
 
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mlmrob

Sire
I was wondering he meant.

That'll be to do with with who he is indentured to. Andrew Balding reined in a jockey taking outside rides a couple of years ago to protect the claim.
It looks like Warren Greatrex will want to benefit from the lads claim himself as he gets an extra 3lbs when he rides for his own stable but only if he has ridden less than 5 winners. Four of those five wins were for Greatrex so it looks like they had a race lined up for him to claim the full 10lbs which he now cannot do.
 
Laura Pearson has been the star apprentice on the all-weather this winter, but she will not be seen in action this month after taking the decision to protect her claim for the turf campaign.

Based with Newmarket trainer Tom Clover, the 19-year-old's career has clicked notably into gear in the past three months with 22 victories, and she holds a six-winner gap over Darragh Keenan in the all-weather apprentice title race.

Marco Ghiani is one behind Keenan in the standings, which come to a close on April 2, and Pearson, after discussions with Clover and her agent Steven Croft, is leaving the option open to return on the all-weather from March if she is still in contention for the title.

She returned on the 10th March when it was obvious she was going to be caught, but lost the tile to Ghiani 28-24.
 

Sandhog

Filly
Regarding market moves and drifters, I've backed Spencer again today ( with the hope that he breaks out of Frank Spencer mode). Backed both the one that shortened, and, the other that drifted wildly off the scale of reason.

My gut feeling is that both will likely flop, as it's a bit early in the year. We'll see. He used to be not bd in valuable races, but perhaps September is his most favourable time of year.

And, yes, apprentices ride to orders. The good ones often start out winning on everything, then, they go the way of the rest - start putting in down-the-field efforts . The really good ones come back later in big races.
 
Re market moves for or against with a few exceptions the source or trigger remains one of the great mysteries, although perhaps better not to know. :eek:
What bothers me is when they skip price steps in drift, like other day the one I had backed went from 10/1 to 16/1 in one step (no 11/1, 12/1, 14/1). Not trying to say I am a big gambler, but this happened right after I had put more on than most people would bet on at that kind of price, I know bookies are not fools, so it makes me very wary of these big drifts.
 

mick

Sire
What bothers me is when they skip price steps in drift, like other day the one I had backed went from 10/1 to 16/1 in one step (no 11/1, 12/1, 14/1). Not trying to say I am a big gambler, but this happened right after I had put more on than most people would bet on at that kind of price, I know bookies are not fools, so it makes me very wary of these big drifts.
But most of the on line ones are now lemmings or allow themselves to be held hostage by the exchange. ? I also suspect that the FOBTs and on line casino aspects caused them to lose interest in horse racing prob also down sizing the experienced staff they may have employed and replacing with computer programmers. As a result they are now frightened of there own shadows and it maybe this which is triggering the helter skelter EP market. ?
 

markfinn

Sire
What bothers me is when they skip price steps in drift, like other day the one I had backed went from 10/1 to 16/1 in one step (no 11/1, 12/1, 14/1). Not trying to say I am a big gambler, but this happened right after I had put more on than most people would bet on at that kind of price, I know bookies are not fools, so it makes me very wary of these big drifts.
I assume we are talking internet backing here -

Would you not think that the computers are stepping in around 1pm on the day and the book is purely about weight of money and trying to get as many in the book as possible - whilst at the same time pushing the live ones ( information wise) into the shorter odds positions regardless of money.

Its no mystery of how to make an opening tissue but once the market is alive and kicking and the BOG watershed's have been met around (1pm summer time meetings earlier for winter meets ) on the day , the numbers must come into play - anyone who has watched the ladders on Bet Angel etc you can see the money queuing up to take a position - they don't all step up and down in single fractional increments, but most live ones will.
 
I assume we are talking internet backing here -

Would you not think that the computers are stepping in around 1pm on the day and the book is purely about weight of money and trying to get as many in the book as possible - whilst at the same time pushing the live ones ( information wise) into the shorter odds positions regardless of money.

Its no mystery of how to make an opening tissue but once the market is alive and kicking and the BOG watershed's have been met around (1pm summer time meetings earlier for winter meets ) on the day , the numbers must come into play - anyone who has watched the ladders on Bet Angel etc you can see the money queuing up to take a position - they don't all step up and down in single fractional increments, but most live ones will.
Yes I was talking about online, but about early morning markets. Markets are more settled around 1pm and a bit easier to understand, but early morning market is very different. And as there is very little liquidity on the exchange for a lot of the races at that time, I am not sure it’s the exchange affecting the market. I think we have to accept that bookies have access to more information than we the punters ever will.
 
Regarding today’s race, Frankie Baby has come back into 4/1 so can’t really be described as a drifter now, and Kaphumor has continued to shorten In betting. Too late to change my mind though, I will just watch.
 
Frankie Baby 4th but was never really in it, so made right decision to swerve. Kaphumor showed improved form and may be able to win a race, it will probably have to be another weak race. Favourite won well, and I suppose it ended up being a good price (2.71 Bsp compared to around 1.5 it was trading at in the morning).
 
6th April

3:30 Pontefract - each way bet on My Thought @ 40/1

Taking a chance on a real long shot, this ex-Gosden horse has not been since his debut 620 days ago. He made his debut in the Crocker Bulteel maiden at Ascot finishing last of 7 (12/1) behind Mums Tipple and Molatham. 3rd, 4th & 5th are all rated 90+ too and the 6th mid 70s. He must have had some problems to not run since, and has been sold for just 10,000 guineas, but his pedigree is really nice. Half-brother to Listed winners Face The Facts & Freedoms Light, and dam related to Cassandra Go & Verglas among others. I think Tim Easterby will be able to do something with this one.

Easterby has 3 of the 10 runners in this race, Midnight Stripper finished 4th in very ordinary looking maiden (0 from 29 and only 2 places for horses to have run from that race) on her only start at 2, and Due Look is making her debut.

The two at top of market Spycatcher and Cooperation have good form but after that there is not much depth. I am not expecting a win but will happy if he can manage 3rd place.
 
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mick

Sire
F Frontrunner regardless of the outcome congrats on building a case for backing one which the market is calling a 40/1 shot. In the races i work Tim is one of my fav trainers and one thing i have learnt when he has multiple runners in the same race is not to be put of when my pick appears to be the stables neglected. :)
 

PHS

Yearling
14:00 Pon

The Gosden fav Waldkonig is a half brother to top-class Waldgeist and was 2nd to last year's Dante 2nd. However, he looks well found by the handicapper off 101 and 4/5 looks short enough.

He may be good enough to win this, but has to give 15lb to Channon's filly Kaleidoscopic. She was very impressive when winning a decent Don handicap (though Soft ground) last back end, making all at a course that doesn't usually favour front runners. Nothing could get near her that day. If she's improved, she could be a threat to the fav. Channon has a very decent record early season and especially with fillies (exceptional up to 2016) in all sex handicaps. 1/2pt @ 14/1.

Looking thrrough the others;

Louganini's best form has been on easy ground.

Victory Chime looks high enough in the weights (though I've been thinking that for years but he keeps winning).

Highwaygrey - Easterby's usually need a run (or two).
 
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