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Thoughts and selections

mick

Sire
16/1 from 10/1 in one hit soon after I bet, I hate when that happens. I can’t do anything now as I am already on, but it’s not a good sign.
I would not feel over concerned as these days the markets appear bonkers. It needs careful thought but sometimes when one i have already backed goes on the drift i top up at the bigger price. While i accept this is a dangerous game to play i keep separate accounts for these extra gains bets and ( so far ) they evidence its proved a profitable ploy and that Pink does not always prevent. :)
 
Thank you mick mick , Sean Sean , you are both right that a drift doesn’t always stop a horse from winning. My own experience is that such big drifters (SH is out to 20/1 now) don’t win often, but I suppose they don’t have to win very often to still make it pay. I have got BOG, so I will be happiest to be proved wrong today.
 

mick

Sire
F Frontrunner One of my best earns came years ago i backed the animal at 8/1 Bog and it won 25/1. More recently one i had backed at 12/1 the evening before went 25/1 mid morning on the day so i went in again at this price and it won 14/1. As you say a big drifter is most often a neg on balance but as you also say at these prices you can afford the losers.

I do wonder if some of the smarter and more covert betting stables are now attempting some old school SP jobs. ? This can still be done on line by playing organized games on bet fair while going SP with the fiddlers.
 
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Scorpion Haze went off at 28/1 and pulled up.

2nd April

4:07 Chelmsford - no bet

United Front (9/4) was a possible for me, but I decided to leave it. He is 1 lb better off with Habit Rouge for neck defeat over CD, winner was able to set a slow pace that day, that is unlikely to happen today as 3 of the 5 runners in this like to lead, so that should help United Front. Zabeel Champion is likely to have a good season on turf, but could need the run. So I think United Front has a chance, but something is stopping me from backing him, maybe it’s the price, not really value given his win rate isn’t great.
 
United Front won @ 15/8 SP, so it was a wrong call to leave it as there were negatives about his two main rivals. But that’s what happens when you are out of form and low on confidence. The only way to get that confidence back is have some winners, so I will keep trying and will probably start having a few more bets. This is not just a reaction to yesterday’s result, I always intended to increase frequency of my bets once the flat season started. This slightly less selective approach could lead to longer losing runs, but hopefully it will also find some bigger priced winners.

3rd April

3:45 Cork - win bet on Claonadh @ 9/1

Really good looking 3yo handicap with lots of unexposed horses and potential improvers, so it’s a risky bet as you don’t know which one of them will improve more. Claonadh has had just one run, she won impressively on debut in a maiden at the Curragh in November, having been gambled from 33/1 into 10/1. She was the only newcomer in the race, travelled well and stayed on to win quite comfortably. It’s not easy to judge strength of the race as there aren’t usually many 5f maidens run at the course that late in the season, but the 3rd horse was already rated 84 and won a Dundalk maiden next time by 4 lengths and is now rated in 90s.

Form of that win is similar or better to Rosie Bassett who had won another maiden at the course couple of weeks earlier. Shelly Banks, who was length and half 2nd behind RB was beaten 10 lengths by Claonadh, and Dots De Feteya who was 6 lengths 4th behind RB was 5 lengths 8th in Claonadh’s race. Difference is that Rosie Bassett already had benefit of experience when winning her race, so today I prefer Claonadh especially as she is a bigger price than that rival.

Willie McCreery has made a good start to the season with 2 winners from 6 runners already that were returning after 90+ days. Both winners were weak in betting (9/1 to 11/1 & 6/1 to 12/1), so I don’t see a slight drift on this one as a negative.

I see Linda Barrett with fitness advantage as the main danger, ahead of Rosie Bassett.
 

mick

Sire
Good read above F Frontrunner and best of for Claonadh. Re yesterdays winning close call swerve these are always the ones we remember as opposed to the more frequent occasions when it proved the correct thing to do. One of the aspects i find interesting about your MO is the wide variety of race types you cover, you have explained your initial way into a race so i can see why this would be so but its still good to see it in practice and working.

Do you have longer term records which enable gleaning if any area has proved more or less profitable, and - or is there a race type which you tend to feel more confident about on balance.?
 
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retriever

Gelding
16/1 from 10/1 in one hit soon after I bet, I hate when that happens. I can’t do anything now as I am already on, but it’s not a good sign.
My small way of dealing with such a drifter ( if I'm still happy to back it ) is to bet again at the higher price, for the same stake, and put a lay into the market to go in-running for the lower price I took. Doesn't always work, but I'm happier if it wins at the bigger price that way.

Good luck with Claonadh. I have to say you do pick your races!! :eek: All 15 runners with at least a 1st / 2nd in their form going back 7 runs. I wouldn't know where to start.....
 
Thank you mick mick . Sorry for late reply. When my approach was based on ratings, I found I did better in certain areas, for example did better on flat than jumps, and at bigger meetings and in better races, and with improving unexposed horses. I could see the reason behind this because my rating was only based on last 3 runs, and these types of races were best suited to consistent in form horses.

Since switching to stats approach, I have not found any significant difference in results in different types of races, because the stats I use vary from race to race and what I believe are relevant to that particular race. For example in today’s race, I found that in races with similar profile, the horses who had placed in at least half their races and preferably at least two thirds of their races did particularly well, so I only concentrated on horses that met this criteria (as it turns out, it might be a wrong decision as because of this stat I have ended up ignoring the favourite who is dropping to handicaps after running in Group 2 last time). But for a lower class race, I would not use this stat even if it was a 3yo race.

I know most people would suggest to specialise in one type of race, but I don’t think it works for me. I did try specialising few years ago in nurseries, admittedly only briefly as I gave up after about two months, it didn’t go well for me even though I had done well in that type of race before and I do get bored quite easily. Looking at different types of races keeps things interesting for me.
 

Sandhog

Filly
F Frontrunner , some very interesting points there, imo. :)

I'm not sure I totally understood: have you ditched the idea of concentrating on runners that have placed in 50% to 66% of their races?

Imo, at the prices you take, your strike rate is pretty good. Obviously, if you threw in a few more selected favourites, you'd get more frequent winners, but, I don't think you'd get the same satisfaction from your work, and, maybe, not a great deal of significant difference in the returns.

Like yourself, I like longer prices, but, at the moment, I'm testing a "system" that concentrates on favourites. It's boring and not really doing much good for the balance, even though strike rate is hovering around 50% winners.
Talk about a" steady drip fills the pot". My pot will be rusty and leaking by the time I get any benefit from what I'm currently at! :D
Huge stakes would be required, imo, to gain much at all.

All the very best!
 
I'm not sure I totally understood: have you ditched the idea of concentrating on runners that have placed in 50% to 66% of their races?
Hi S Sandhog, I was only using the example of today’s race (3:45 Cork) that I ignored those that had placed in less than 50% of their races. This would not apply to all races, as I use stats that I believe will be important in a particular race.

In today’s race I considered those that had placed in at least half their races but gave preference to those that had placed in over two thirds of their races.
 
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mick

Sire
For myself its all about the price but i am talking perceived value as opposed to size. I think there are occasions when 5/2 can be seen as good and 12/1 not so. We have to respect the front of the market as it has proven long term accuracy, but this is the area where most backers play and the vast majority of these will not make any longer term profits, and this fact is worth keeping in mind the next time your work on a race produces a selection which the market says is a 16/1 shot.
 

PHS

Yearling
Kevin Foy has shown in his short career that he has no problem getting one ready after an absence. He doesn't mention today's runner Sky Lake (20:30 Wol) in this weeks Weekender stable tour but I won't read too much into that as he didn't even mention that Pholas was running yesterday and she duly won at 25/1 despite looking out of her depth on ratings alone.

SL did very well to follow Catch My Breath home last time from a wide draw considering that horse was in a rich vein of form and duly won again next time. Backed 0.5pt at 15/2.
 

PHS

Yearling
Kevin Foy has shown in his short career that he has no problem getting one ready after an absence. He doesn't mention today's runner Sky Lake (20:30 Wol) in this weeks Weekender stable tour but I won't read too much into that as he didn't even mention that Pholas was running yesterday and she duly won at 25/1 despite looking out of her depth on ratings alone.

Apologies, I'm getting Boughey (Weekender stable tour) and Foy mixed up (2 new trainers).
 
Although it’s always disappointing to lose, I am not disappointed with the run from Claonadh. She dwelt at the start, as she had done on her debut, but whereas at the Curragh there were gaps for her to come through, here she had to go around almost the whole field to make her run and she ran on eyecatchingly to finish 5th.
 

Sandhog

Filly
Yes, F Frontrunner ,
our selections don't always get that good fortune in running that they need for best performance, but, as you used the word "eye-catching", I think she is one to note for the future.

Thanks for putting me straight about the proportion of places in a horse's form. I used to try something similar when looking at jockeys.
 
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