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Thoughts and selections

mick

Sire
For myself its all about the price and as i work well in advance then the EP markets are of great interest, but i fear the glory days have gone. B365 start pricing from 3pm the day before but there opening over rounds are now often at a piddle taking 3% per runner which is double the takeout accepted as being fair to both backer and layer. Fair dues they still offer Bog at this time which in the current volatile markets can be worth plenty but such high margins make value a harder find.

As per C Coseleymon i can no longer avail myself of the WH 48 HR EPs which is a shame because although they work to simular opening over rounds as above i found they where still more likely to rick a price and if this was considered so for my horse of interest then happy days on balance.

Paddys odds compilers appear to fear the more obvious and often go shortest on those at the front of the market but do compensate via stand alone best prices for some of the other runners but even with help getting on is difficult, and imo the rest of those advertising via odds checker are just clowns and lemmings.

During recent Flat seasons something i have been able to profit from is an increase in the races and type priced up at the 4 day dec stage. In the past this only involved the really top class races but more recently i have seen 0-90 Hcaps used. Of course at this stage you do not have the NRNB safe guard but if you can build the case that this is a target race for your selection then often the odds on offer justify the risk of not getting a run or a neg draw with the additional plus of no R4 deductions.

There is one area where the Bookmakers early odds compilers can still seriously rick and this is when not paying enough attention to the weather Fc, because if there is a chance that the ground will change to soft come the off then this can put the early doors backer well ahead of the market, and over the years some of my very best earns have come as a result of being a form reader of the weather forecasts. !
 
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PHS

Gelding
Intervention is the most likely winner of the 13:10 Lin tomorrow. He comfortably won a 7f Appr Hcp at Wol last time and runs without a penalty tomorrow. Jason Watson takes over from Larson.

At a bigger price, I like the place chance of Emjaytwentythree at 4/1 with B365 (3 places). He ran a solid race when 2nd to Delta River in Nov 2021, over C&D, with the jockey taking a wide passage from the 2nd turn from home. That race was a 0-65 (winner rated 67) and Emjaytwentythree was rated 62. Tomorrow's race is a 0-60 and he's dropped 3lb to 59, mainly due to a lack lustre display at Ncl last time over a mile, which might be too far for him.

Jockey, O'Neill already has a 20% strike rate at Lin (AW) for Alice Haynes. Emjaytwentythree was 2nd on his only other appearance at Lin when with Richard Hannon.

The price has already been cut with a few books to 11/1 and 12/1, so B365's 16/1 and 4/1 3 places looks under pressure. I've had 0.5pt TBP and 0.1pt to win @ 16/1.
 

PHS

Gelding
The winner, Split Elevens seems to have taken a step forward since the Visor was fitted (2/2 now) but hadn't run much at the track, so it was difficult to predict how he'd run up in grade today. Disappointing not to get something with the Fav beat (Hugh Taylor also tried and failed) but I'd suggest connections won't be too pleased with Watson's ride, finishing so well but just given too much to do after the runaway leader went clear.

Emjay (5th) was ultimately disappointing, though there seemed to be little effort from the jockey once it was clear he wasn't going to win.
 

PHS

Gelding
Disappointing not to get something with the Fav beat (Hugh Taylor also tried and failed) but I'd suggest connections won't be too pleased with Watson's ride, finishing so well but just given too much to do after the runaway leader went clear.

Just looked up Watson's stats over Ling's 7/8f track. SP 2.0 to 9.0. so half fancied runners at least - only an 8% strike rate, very poor. Take the odds restrictions out and it's a very similar percentage. Left it far too late to start his challenge on Intervention today, on by far the best horse in the race.
 

mattyboy

Yearling
The winner, Split Elevens seems to have taken a step forward since the Visor was fitted (2/2 now) but hadn't run much at the track, so it was difficult to predict how he'd run up in grade today. Disappointing not to get something with the Fav beat (Hugh Taylor also tried and failed) but I'd suggest connections won't be too pleased with Watson's ride, finishing so well but just given too much to do after the runaway leader went clear.

Emjay (5th) was ultimately disappointing, though there seemed to be little effort from the jockey once it was clear he wasn't going to win.

Split Elevens was a Johnny Butler drifter in the market that won I believe. Fairly unusual, I would have thought.
Was an in-from horse having won last time,and had won off six pounds higher than yesterday on the AW only thirteen months ago. Not that form means too much with a horse from this yard often. I would say this looked a decent race beforehand though, and horses that were beaten but ran fairly well may be ones to look at one their next run
 

PHS

Gelding
Split Elevens was a Johnny Butler drifter in the market that won I believe. Fairly unusual, I would have thought.

Correct, it opened up 7/1 the night before and drifted out to 14/1 before coming back 2 points near the off (probably just guessers (well, are'nt we all)).

Retrospectively, watching its previous race at ChC, the jockey came there with a double handful but waited very nicely for others to close and managed to win narrowly protecting the mark. That was a lower grade race though, so it was difficult to know what to think up in grade and on a very different track. A lot of the reason it won was Hollie having it not too far off the tearaway leader 3f out and starting her final effort early enough.
 

Frontrunner

Stallion
Again no bet today, but watching Buck’s Boggle in the maiden hurdle at Chepstow (1:30), I think he has a fair chance of going couple of places better than when finishing 3rd on his hurdling debut over this CD. It’s hard to know strength of a race like this but it probably isn’t a bad race with possible improvers and a ptp winner also prominent in betting.

BB is favoured by the stats, Tom George is 7 from 50 in maiden hurdles at Chepstow but it improves to 6 from 10 (+15.50 LSP) with those priced 5/1 or shorter. Similarly, his record in maiden hurdles overall over last two years is only 2 from 28, but 2 from 2 when favourite.

I think market will be important as ever in this type of race, and will be interesting to see what is expected from Tim Vaughan horse in particular as he is related to some good winners.
 

mick

Sire
My only possible for Sat was Win Win Power Chelm 6.15 but i swerved owning to the trainers ( Frank Bishop ) poor record to-date. This is a rare occurrence as i generally tend to seek excuses under these circumstances. I would be interested in reading other members thoughts on this topic.
 

Frontrunner

Stallion
My only possible for Sat was Win Win Power Chelm 6.15 but i swerved owning to the trainers ( Frank Bishop ) poor record to-date. This is a rare occurrence as i generally tend to seek excuses under these circumstances. I would be interested in reading other members thoughts on this topic.
Hi mick mick , trainer’s record of 0 from 132 would have been a big negative for me too. I like to see that the trainer has had at least one winner and if not that at least a reasonable number of placed horses, Frank Bishop has had only 4 places too. I admit I would have found it difficult to back with trainer record like that, unless other trainers in the race didn’t have very good records either.

Edit: other thing I would consider in this situation is if the trainer’s recent runners have been competitive enough even if not winning.
 
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Sean

Dam
mick mick Im a bit like F Frontrunner , i dont mind that a trainer hasnt been amongst the winners but i like to see at least a few placers amongst recent runners before getting involved , unless the horse has seriously good course form and the trainer hasnt sent many out lately (but not been amongst the winners/placers) then id probably be interested , would all depend on the other runners then tbh
 

lendos

Filly
My only possible for Sat was Win Win Power Chelm 6.15 but i swerved owning to the trainers ( Frank Bishop ) poor record to-date. This is a rare occurrence as i generally tend to seek excuses under these circumstances. I would be interested in reading other members thoughts on this topic.
mick mick ive just looked at your post, ive looked at frank bishop and he had four horses tun in the last 14 days two didnt run to bad, one of which was your selection, the other 2 were well beat, me if the trainer is our of form with no winners in the last 14 days i would look to see how many were placed and how far they were beaten, if there were a few who were beaten but not far then it wouldnt put me off, but his last 2 horses were beaten 18l and 26l that would of put me off, his luck will have to change eventually and his winners will be big prices
 

mick

Sire
Cheers guys for myself i tend to investigate what the trainer has achieved with the ammunition at his disposal. Tbh when profiling Win Win Power i had no prior knowledge of the trainer but even after digging deeper into the bare stats i had to conclude BLA ( Best Left Alone ). Over the years i can recall enjoying the odd big priced winner when it was a first one for the trainer ( likewise with a 7lb claimers first win ) but these would have been after fewer runners than Bishops 0- 132. I do wish him well and expect he will pop the cherry eventually. :)
 
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lendos

Filly
Cheers guys for myself i tend to investigate what the trainer has achieved with the ammunition at his disposal. Tbh when profiling Win Win Power i had no knowledge of the trainer but even after digging deeper into the bare stats i had to conclude BLA ( Best Left Alone ). Over the years i can recall enjoying the odd big priced winner when it was a first one for the trainer ( likewise with a 7lb claimers first win ) but these would have been after fewer runners than Bishops 0- 132. I do wish him well and expect he will pop the cherry eventually. :)
mick mick frank bishop has only 10 horses according to attheraces so just a small operation at the minute
 

lendos

Filly
My above comes from RI : Raceform Interactive although as someone who spends hours every day using it i can confirm that they also make the odd mistakes. While not nice i guess with all the ever changing data involved it is just about excusable. !
mick mick hope you dont mind me asking do raceform interactive do they do split second thanks len
 
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