Dear
T
Thomas I hope you don’t mind me contributing and not accuse me of aftertiming. An area I am working on at the moment is “confirmation” of selections once they have made it to the list.
This allows two things. Firstly, whether the form was good enough to be put on the list and secondly a possible clue as to placement requirements.
With Well Funded I would have looked at the Nottingham race (01/)8/19) Note the distance, also the winner. Platform Nineteen was the odds on favourite who has since gone on to score in 2 class 4 events, increasing in ratings overtime and including a win at a class 1 course as favourite.
I see the winner as a “minor” confirmer, as you could say that Well Funded won the race without him. I feel this thinking is flawed as the race would probably develop differently without the presence of the favourite.
I would be looking for runners who I rated below Well Funded” and seeing what and where they were placed next.
The first runner would be Kitty’s Cove, getting weight from the selection and then going onto place 2nd (beaten by favourite) and then win, beating the odds on favourite who had an O/r of 62.
Note that Well funded faces Kitty’s Cover again today – but with a far greater pull at the weights – classic VDW!
The stronger for me “confirmer” would be Victoriano. I am interested in the next run as this I feel indicated the actual strength of the preceding race. He wins a class 6 over this distance at Bath (another course with an uphill finish).
I rated this run higher than class 5 on my par table. He beat an O/R 65 favourite in this race. There is nothing that high today. He then improves over the next 3 runs, being beaten by odds on favourites.
From this and Well Funded’s earlier races we can learn that 1m 6f looks the distance and that a class 6 race should be within his ability.
As I said, I do not want to come across as sanctimonious, just sharing my recent research.