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Thomas Betting Strategy

Had an operation on my wrist hope to be out Monday/Tuesday a lot of pain still, so balancing act trying to use phone.

The boredom is the problem, and wife and kids upped sticks to the algarve for ten days. What do they say actions speak louder than words. :D
 
Forced boredom can be a great place to let your imagination out to play and come up with some good ideas without even trying.. Hope you recover well and hope your boredom pays dividends (y)
 
Had an operation on my wrist hope to be out Monday/Tuesday a lot of pain still, so balancing act trying to use phone.

The boredom is the problem, and wife and kids upped sticks to the algarve for ten days. What do they say actions speak louder than words. :D
Hope she packed her golf clubs
 
York 3.0
Kynren

This race seems to be the ideal race for Kynren and I hope he wins.
I have only just seen this so am obviously after timing but hope its viewed via the good intentions intended. Kynren was running off a massive 16lbs higher OR than his last win, and often regardless of good placed form since (which he had) this type of ask remains the stopper. Of course in this instance i might well be wrong but it is something worth pondering for future situations.?

76041
 
on twitter earlier Andrew Mount said since 2007 Mark Johnston's runners who prepped at Glorious Goodwood are just 1-62 before today's runners.


But it ran mighty close - I selected it for my thread but was put off after what happened to my Johnson selection yesterday.
 
Well Funded 5.35 Carlisle

This is what drives me mad, horses such as this.
Into the tracker it went after beating a previous winner at doncaster in June. Then two excellent runs behind previous winners,and I'm sharpening the pencil,and then it runs an absolute shocker. No explanation only frustration.
Then today at catterick it bolts up unbacked by me,this seems to be a recurring theme.
 
Was pushed up x2 classes and 12/1 T Thomas?

The way I'm thinking the form horse scenario works, would he have been a form horse for the penultimate race? I don't think he would have been? But would have for today?

That's just a scan though, not trying to be clever is just a thought from looking.

Is annoying when that happens T Thomas!
 
Was pushed up x2 classes and 12/1 T Thomas?

The way I'm thinking the form horse scenario works, would he have been a form horse for the penultimate race? I don't think he would have been? But would have for today?

That's just a scan though, not trying to be clever is just a thought from looking.

Is annoying when that happens T Thomas!
Same as formtheory formtheory states

Was banged up to class 4 LTO and then gets his mark down 2 lbs from the BHA Handicapper , dropped 16 Lb in class today

ADF1CA40-7F20-4F37-A6B1-3BE01008CA10.jpeg
 
This is what drives me mad, horses such as this.
Into the tracker it went after beating a previous winner at doncaster in June. Then two excellent runs behind previous winners,and I'm sharpening the pencil,and then it runs an absolute shocker. No explanation only frustration.
Then today at catterick it bolts up unbacked by me,this seems to be a recurring theme.
Whats the saying don't get mad get even. Your above is a negative situation experienced by us all. When it happens to me i swear once and then set to attempting to glean my mistake (s). Regardless of this feeling that a horse has messed on us has to be accepted as part of the price, it is always getting it right on balance which is the straighter and if by the years end you are in profit then you have got collectively even. :)
 
Dear T Thomas I hope you don’t mind me contributing and not accuse me of aftertiming. An area I am working on at the moment is “confirmation” of selections once they have made it to the list.

This allows two things. Firstly, whether the form was good enough to be put on the list and secondly a possible clue as to placement requirements.

With Well Funded I would have looked at the Nottingham race (01/)8/19) Note the distance, also the winner. Platform Nineteen was the odds on favourite who has since gone on to score in 2 class 4 events, increasing in ratings overtime and including a win at a class 1 course as favourite.

I see the winner as a “minor” confirmer, as you could say that Well Funded won the race without him. I feel this thinking is flawed as the race would probably develop differently without the presence of the favourite.

I would be looking for runners who I rated below Well Funded” and seeing what and where they were placed next.

The first runner would be Kitty’s Cove, getting weight from the selection and then going onto place 2nd (beaten by favourite) and then win, beating the odds on favourite who had an O/r of 62.

Note that Well funded faces Kitty’s Cover again today – but with a far greater pull at the weights – classic VDW!

The stronger for me “confirmer” would be Victoriano. I am interested in the next run as this I feel indicated the actual strength of the preceding race. He wins a class 6 over this distance at Bath (another course with an uphill finish).

I rated this run higher than class 5 on my par table. He beat an O/R 65 favourite in this race. There is nothing that high today. He then improves over the next 3 runs, being beaten by odds on favourites.

From this and Well Funded’s earlier races we can learn that 1m 6f looks the distance and that a class 6 race should be within his ability.
As I said, I do not want to come across as sanctimonious, just sharing my recent research.
 
Galway 6.15
Simply Beautiful

Looks like a solid bet this evening in the big race at Galway. Only raced once at 2 and eventually won her maiden at naas as favourite.

The card marker and solid piece of form to my mind was in her penultimate race when 2nd to Tarnawa. She was dropped in trip last time to sharpen her up for this contest, behind a top filly, and ran more or less as the market suggested.

A very confident selection even allowing for the fact it is a fillies race.
 
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Well at least dick turpin wore a mask, they are not called the mafia for nothing.

The fate was known in the last 10 minutes before the off.

The winner was out the back at the start and continued to shorten while the selection drifted like a barge,and they say they don't know.
 
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Yarmouth 2.45

Fanny Logan

I have backed to win this race.

Yarmouth 4 20
Pinnata

VDW bet if ever I saw one.
 
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