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This Punting Life

Catt 3.20 Homer Stokes 5-1 Improved on recent efforts to win 7-runner handicap at this C&D (soft, 10/3) 16 days ago by neck from Miss Willows, driven out, pair well clear. Handles G-F going

Catt 4.30 Pons Aelius 5-1 Eleven runs since last win in 2023 and as a result is 11lb below his last winning mark, ran much better than for a while returned to turf when third of 8 in handicap at this course (15.9f, good) 26 days ago.

Catt 5.05 Tatterstall 3-1 Back to form when a good third of 11 in handicap (13/2) at Thirsk (5f, good to firm) 21 days ago, same mark and has obvious claims at these weights.
51 bets
11 winers
cheers Sean Sean, the speed figures are a god send for me and the way I use them. Extremely grateful for TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother for compiling them and mlmrob mlmrob for putting them up in an easily usable format. Nothing for tomorrow from me but one of the guys I work with is in a racing club and their horse Racingbreaks Ryder goes tomorrow at Goodwood 2.10 and he has told me they are having a big bet on it.
mlmrob mlmrob could not have done it without your help, thanks for the sheet you put up, it highlights potential bets in seconds and of course the main man himself who compiles them. To think this has been at my disposal for so long and I never used it.
55 sels
12 winners
+ 1.21

2 seconds and a winner today just treading water at moment, onto tomorrow

Ham 8.25 Ski Angel C&D winner. 2 wins from 3 runs this year. 7/2, career best when winning 13-runner handicap at Musselburgh (5f, good) 11 days ago, leading final 50 yds. Manner of that victory suggests she may yet have more to offer and looks a progressive filly.

Yarm 3.00 Five Winds Consistent since switched to handicaps, latterly when dropped back to sprinting Good third of 13 in handicap at Leicester (6f, good) 32 days ago. That form has been franked so she has to be taken seriously eased 1 lb with few miles still on the clock.
Previously I have found most of my bets in class 3 or below. I have put in filters to arrive at a shortlist and then use my judgement or lack of and profiling to arrive at a selection. It can be a bit laborious but I've had some success however the fun has gone out of it.

I started using speed figures to replace some of the filters and things improved result wise and the enjoyment returned plus it spedup the whole process which for a working man is a bonus.

What I have found is the lower class races some of the results were totally unfathomable at times, everything lined up before the race but they were never run like I predicted. Despite going back through the form book nothing made sense. I know horse racing can be unpredictable but things were just not adding up.

Now I use ratings the results are a lot more uniform and I can now look at better class handicaps. A bad run is rare and most surprise results can be explained when doing a post mortem. The only conclusion I can make is that ratings are more consistent but even they can only take you so far, the form book still needs to be opened.
I agree trecelyn on what you are saying but the enjoyment does come from looking at form for me any way.
The times are always important thats why you wont see many decent times on poor racingand even if you do get the odd one it will still struggle up in class as surely these horses could have done the same in the lower class so you have to be prepared with class too.
Then when you look at 2yold and 3yold only races this is where times really tell as alot of time its all we have to go on to valuate the form.
But you have the difficulty of improving form so you have to accept wont always work out and just adjust as you go.
But there is no doubt the better the race the more you can valuate form and times thats till you get to group racing where can start to get complicated again as there running all over the world now days, and long distance races where alot of the form in a race can be poor times but thats just the nature of the style of run race.
So all in all i would say your not far wrong but say 5fur to 1 mile and half class 4 to class 2 is where form is best.
I agree with what your saying gerry gerry , the ratings take you so far then its down to the individual. I had not bet in the beter class events for some time but now the ratings have opened that side of things up to me again.

The inconsistencies in lower class racing almost finished me off. Long losing runs, unexplained results and downright dodgy betting patterns were the norm.

Not saying i wont look at these races but am concentrating on the better class events from now on.
Bath 3.30 I had an original shortlist of 8 which comprised the top 8 of TheBluesBrothers figures. Closer inspection of the races where they achieved their top rating identified several with AW ratings. The list then came down to Frank The Spark, Suanni and Liberty Bay.

FTS's recent form does not fill me with confidence, of the other 2 I prefer Suanni 6-1

Bath 5.15 Shortlist of 4 but with one immediately taking my eye and I think it will go off at a decent price. Alberto 20-1 is lightly raced and obviously open to a bit more improvement than some of these, throw in the fact he is top rated from his run at Windsor where he was beaten out of sight by the Derby 4th. Possibly didn't stay last time, now dropped to 1 mile.

Ches 2.45 Loyal Touch and Desert Emperor are the only 2 that make the shortlist, Desert Emperor's ratings come from the AW whilst Loyal Touch's 20-1 figure came over course and distance.
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60 sels
14 wins

Both Frank The Spark and Liberty Bay ran better than Suanni, Loyal Touch was a nice winner for the speed figures and I think Alberto was never put in the race yesterday, trainer obviously wants a few more lbs off.

D2.10 Albeseeingyer 7-1 of the 4 top rated this one looks the best bet to me, solid 7f performer who will improve for recent reappearance run

Sals 2.55 Sayifyouwill 9-2 not top rated and figure does come from 6 runs ago but it was over 7f and on G-F, sole win coming at this track catches the eye as well

Sals 5.00 Chips and Rice 4-1 rating comes from tail end of last season but good 2nd LTO, been playing round with the distance lately but returned today to 1M 2F which is the distance all his wins have come over.
66 sels
15 wins

Beverley 8.45 Caramay Career best when winning 10-runner handicap (9/2) at Windsor (10f, good to firm) on return 29 days ago. Live contender again up 3 lb.

Brighton 7.30 Local Bay Capitalised on much-reduced mark at Bath (1m) at the start of the month and followed up in similarly decisive fashion back at that track/trip 3 days ago, utilising his turn of foot to good effect. Sound claims under a penalty in hat-trick bid.

Brighton 8.00 Corporate Raider One win from 21 Flat runs. Very good second of 9 in classified event at this course (1¼m, good, 11/2) 11 days ago, will like the unique track and this race look fairly uncompetitive, going there with a good chance.

Brighton 9.00 Neptune Legend Notched a third win of the year in 10-runner classified event at Bath (5.7f, good, 5/1) 11 days ago. Back up in trip which should not be an issue
70 sels
16 wins

Busy day today with quite a few qualifiers, have tried filtering them down and nothing works so will stick them all up

Asc 5.05 Beshtani 10-1 Fairly useful form for Francis-Henri Graffard in France last year, winning 3 of his 5 starts at up to 9.5f. Changed hands for €340,000 prior to being narrowly denied at Epsom on return and worth chancing to go one better.

Nott 6.50 Abolish 10-1 One win from 30 Flat runs. Twenty one runs since last win in 2022. Respectable sixth of 10 in handicap at Windsor (5.1f, heavy, 9/1) 44 days ago. Respected despite his poor strike rate.

Nott 7.20 Laser Focus 2-1 Latest win at Lingfield in May. Very good second of 8 in handicap at Wetherby (10f, good to soft, 11/4) 8 days ago, conceding first run. Expected to be bang there.

Nott 8.20 Dougies Dream 15-2 Good second of 11 in handicap (7/1) at Redcar (8f, soft) 22 days ago, running on. Not taken lightly.

Nott 8.50 Young Merlin 9-2 Good second of 9 in handicap (9/2) at Salisbury (14.2f, heavy) 45 days ago, nearest finish. Cheekpieces back on. Expected to be bang there.
Good luck Trecelyn. I can't back any French horses today, not after yesterday, they were poor (obviously doesn't mean they will be poor today though). The Irish horses weren't much better either, except for the final race of the day, but A P O'Brien/Ryan Moore often get a couple of winners Day 2, so if I do back any French or Irish horses today, it will probably be A P O'Brien. But I might have a USA (Wesley Ward double) instead of the French and Irish today.

Otherwise, big odds galore in the extra place races, just need a bit of luck.