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Thinking outside the box - horse racing

MrT

Filly
This was something I looked for and can be profitable but unfortunately it takes time to do and very easy to miss one.

1 you need to look at the morning 1st shows around 9am
2 you need to look at the r/post tissue prices
3 view their card and use one of the bookies prices [ I used Ladbrokes]
4 scan all races then if you see one open up that race

You are looking for any horse that has a double digit tissue price yet the actual bookies price is at least 40% less so for instance a 20/1 shot would be 12/1 or less with the bookie.

If you see such a race then if you open that individual race on the r/post web site and if you use Ladbrokes the said horse must NOT HAVE BEEN BACKED IN which are shown anyway and the one to take a second look at.

Its a long time since I did this and 90% SURE it happened a lot more on the A W and e more of a look is needed if the actual tissue price for the race is the OUTSIDER OF THE FIELD that as dropped at least 40 %

At 1st I thought it was just a mistake or coincidence but it happened to often in my eyes and winners do come along.

Dived tissue price by 10 then multiply by 4 and if the bookies price is this amount less than the tissue price this becomes one to consider.

As I said it can be a bind but some stick out like a sore thumb and are 50 % + less

MR T

I only used Ladbrokes as an example and any bookies would apply as its just something I used to look out for when they were 40% less than R/POST TISSUE price at the morning opening price of the bookies.

To be honest at the time I did this it may well have been BET365 but it was a couple of years ago
 

mick

Sire
@MrT my comments Re Ladbrokes where not intended as critique of your choice but rather my over view opinion of there current standing and credibility as horse racing bookmakers. Considering there past positive Rep a sad state of affairs but also a problem entirely of there own making.
 

MrT

Filly
@MrT my comments Re Ladbrokes where not intended as critique of your choice but rather my over view opinion of there current standing and credibility as horse racing bookmakers. Considering there past positive Rep a sad state of affairs but also a problem entirely of there own making.
Were they not taken over hence their demise from being one of the best

T
 

mick

Sire
Were they not taken over hence their demise from being one of the best

T
They suffered the take over because the demise had already occurred and the buyer was imo after the FOBT business. The merger with Corals was another symptom of two once well respected horse racing bookmakers no longer being seen as such. Imo there are only two creditable firms left B365 and WH and i note that neither of those have felt the need to merge.
 

MrT

Filly
When I include price in some of my SOFTWARE PROGRAMS I have the option and in the past I used B365 and to be honest don't know why I changed to Ladbrokes and if their are any big difference I could not say. Mainly its my Jumps software thread were PRICE is part of the selection process and may well revert back to BET365.

The downfall for using any bookies prices it's the price I see at the time I put the race through my software and may or may not be the same at the time of the race and in some cases completely different but I do try to do the races at a similar time each day [not today]

After saying that this is only a very small part of what I use and if it was a cl1 - 3 non handicap race its the bhb + rpr + speed + PRICE + last 6 runs and BHB is something that as been mentioned in past post in this thread.

Maybe out of context but good to know your preferred bookies.

MR T
 
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mick

Sire
When I include price in some of my SOFTWARE PROGRAMS I have the option and in the past I used B365
Well i guess it depends on how your software is using the info. ? When i am looking at Odds Checker i only take note of B365 and WH because in my experience both will soak up a fair amount before cutting a price, whereas the rest are just lemmings and or hostage to the exchange.
 
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mlmrob

Sire
Nigel Twiston Davies targets this Perth meeting, 46-144. However, it is the Thursday of the two day meeting that the majority of the winners come from. Clearly an extra days rest after travelling from Naunton benefits the horses.
Twiston Davies record on a Wednesday reads 11-65 with a loss of over 22 points whilst the Thursday sees a return of 35-74 and a profit of 23 points.

Today he saddles,
Don’t Shout 2.35
Wholestone 3.10
Grey Diamond 3.45
One Forty Seven 4.20

He is 8-12 in the Novice Chase, probably should have been 9-12 as El Terremoto fell at the last, last year when looking the likely winner. He does send some very good horses for this race and Wholestone has basically scared everyone off.

For me, his best bet looks to be Grey Diamond who makes his debut for the yard. Grey Diamond hasn’t been seen since the spring but he has some pieces of form that say he is well handicapped on 120. He was third beaten 12ls to West Coast Flyer last time but the second, third, fourth and fifth finished in a heap and have provided some useful form since. The winner has won a again beating horses that have subsequently won. It is Grey Diamond’s previous race when looking in charge of a novice hurdle and falling at the second last that takes the eye. He was giving 10lbs to Valentino Dancer who benefitted from his fall and with that horse subsequently winning off 119 and finishing fifth beaten 9ls in a listed hurdle off 127, Grey Diamond should be able to defy todays mark of 120.
 

mlmrob

Sire
WORCESTER 4.55

This is an interesting race as it is a qualifier for the final of this series. To qualify for the final horses had to have a top 6 finish in certain races at Southwell and Worcester since May. What is strange about this series is not all the qualifiers are handicaps yet the final is.

Quite a few of these have not qualified for the final. The final is a 0-130

Larkbarrow Lad doesn’t want to be winning this as there will no way he will be able to run in the final. He is yet to qualify.

The Vollan has qualified for the final but his OR is shot to pieces after winning 9ls last time. Unless connections do some serious non trying over the next month, the handicapper is not going to shift his mark so he can win today as he won’t be heading back here next month.

Win My Wings hasn’t qualified for the final but connections can’t risk the mare going over 132 so I cant see her winning today.

Bold Record has qualified for the final and could probably win this and it not matter.

Jasmin Des Bordes has yet to qualify for the final and could win without doing much damage to her official rating.

Clever Fox has qualified for the final and connections can win this without the mark going over the limit.

The others are 40/1 plus for a reason.

Conclusion: There is 18k for the winner of the final so connections will not want to be wrecking marks by winning this today, unless of course you don’t want a slice of the brilliant money for the final which pays down to 6th.
If this were a handicap the only horse well in with The Vollan is Win My Wings who has 5lbs in hand. Win My Wings hasn’t qualified for the final so a nice run round here and he will look well in at the end of October. The Vollan has been a different horse this summer with the application of a tongue tie, 12221. His mark has risen from 108 to 134 and instead of having to try his luck in a 0-135, Charlie Longsdon has found him a race that he is well in with all the field bar Win My Wings who may well not be trying. The Vollan may have a double penalty but the way the weights have been framed for this race, he should really take the beating as he doesn’t have to run to his mark.
 

hedgehog

Mare
I keep looking at this thread but for the life of me I can't think of anything I do that is outside the box so can't make a worthwhile contribution.

Well done all who gave good ideas and analysis.
 

mick

Sire
I keep looking at this thread but for the life of me I can't think of anything I do that is outside the box so can't make a worthwhile contribution.
I wanted to contribute because i liked @dave58 good intentions behind starting the thread but your right it is difficult to come up with truly contrarian thinking. I like to believe that some of mine might be but if other punters are thinking - using the same then is it ? and the last time i saw any industry figs they said that there are four million active UK horse racing punters.

I guess the better description might be minority thinking and in truth this is all it needs to be to buy you a market edge.
 

mlmrob

Sire
Is this Thinking Outside The Box or is it Boxing Outside The Think.

MUSSELBURGH

Willie Haggas is 4-4 at this meeting and 2-2 in the 2yo race. He sends Johan for the 2.10. Johan won as he liked last time and the right horse finished second, but it is his previous fourth which suggests he has a bit of ability. He was 2ls behind Military March who holds entries in the Group 1 Dewhurst and Futurity. Second was Jacksonian who holds a Derby entry and in third was Ursa Minor who franked the form by winning at Yarmouth last week and had gone into that Newmarket race on the back of a second to Al Dabaran, subsequently won a listed contest and the third home Gold Souk has also since won. This should take very little winning as he only appears to have Amaysmont to beat. Amaysmont won his division of the 2yo maiden at Carlisle quicker than his stablemate won the other division but Debs Delight was beaten 16ls in his next race. Alix James who was second to Amaysmont has been getting beat off marks in the 70s and the third was second in a Nursery off 75.
Johan doesn’t appear to be meeting any potential Group class rivals here and he should take the beating

John Quinn generally does well at the Great Western Meeting and his horses are hard fit. But it is the next run of the runners from Ayr that spikes my interest.
Since 2016 there is a four week period where his horses are still clearly in form from Ayr and are worth following. Quinn’s record reads 6-11 and none of the others placed.
Today he sends My Ukulele to Musselburgh for the 3.15. My Ukulele has been a revelation this summer taking her mark from 58 to 72. Since stepping up to 8f and being dropped out the filly has recorded three wins and a sixth. The sixth place can be excused as she was bumped turning into the straight which knocked her into another horse. She had ten races as a juvenile and then had 7 months off which has benefitted her. This is her toughest task to date, but she won a 0-65 in August and three of the next four horses are all now racing off higher marks. She gave 2lbs and beat Gylo 4.5ls and that horse is now rated a stone higher on 76. That suggests that My Ukulele still has plenty in the tank. She was pulled out of a race at Hamilton last week because of the soft ground. My Ukulele was entered for the 4.55 which was a 0-70 where she would have carried top weight. The race has prize money down to eighth. She most probably would have gone very close to picking up the 3.5k winners’ purse so it is interesting she is taking her chance where she needs to finish in the top two places to better that win prize money. She is 4lbs wrong at the weights which is negated by Sean Davis claim and she has 4lbs WFA.
 
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