Thinking outside the box - horse racing

[doomster]

There are very few 0-100 & 0-105 handicaps in April and I think this is the only one in April over a mile, so I would guess their options are limited.

 

[gerry]

Just had quick run through this thread and interesting indeed, but one thing i am not sure was mentioned was the going.
I mentioned in other thread how i feel they have ruined racing by watering as there is never bar the odd meeting really fast going.
So most they try and get the ground good going.
now we all know they dont achieve that alot of the time but even the fact they water most tracks now, has got me to the feeling that is the horses ability on going as important as we think now,
I mean i have seen races where it is reported good to firm and yet they do 3 or 4 seconds over standard and you actually see the turf kicking up.
I am not talking about horses who clearly need a deffinate ground but on average do they mind the ground,
As i have mentioned before and i see some brought up on here thinking on the humon side as well if you run humon track guys over certain distance the will be better or poorer depending.same with left hand or right track will make big differance.
I remember telling a football trainer who had a great sriker up front who could head the ball well , and i asked him does the ball come from the right side and he said what do you mean.every one will header a ball from one side try it now.fromright i can twist my head and power it from left i cant.
were all built to favour sides so why should horses be differant.
So my point right or stupid is distance and track might just be more important than going now adays.
And give horse the benifit of doubt if going your only doubt.

 

[Chesham]

I think you mean Human not Humon gerry. Yes I agree some horses travel better clockwise or Anti Clockwise. Some Horses run better on Straight Tracks

Some Jockeys perform better when dictating the Pace. Some C&D suit certain Run Styles. Match the C&D Style with the Horses run style and the Jockey run style, your well on your way to “Thinking Outside The Box”

 

[Chesham]

gerry

Pre Race Example



Result

 

[Chesham]

Apply Chosen Ratings

 

[mick]

Just had quick run through this thread and interesting indeed, but one thing i am not sure was mentioned was the going.

I do not recall if i have mentioned Going on this thread but have certainly done so past and recently elsewhere on this forum. Clerks of the course who feel the need to keep the tap turned on when the weather Fc are predicting rain is the very worst type of " Out side the box thinking " and with the end result often being false or dead ground then i suspect the only people pleased about this are The Bookmakers. !

 

[gerry]

gerry

Pre Race Example

View attachment 120505
View attachment 120506
Result

View attachment 120507

interesting chesham i had look at race, and the first thing i noticed was wasnt even a decent time, nearly 4 sec above standard, infact wasnt even the fastest time over that distance that day, first four in said race have all run couple times at least since and been well beat.
infact the one that done better time over same distance has since came out and won listed race sea silk road.
percys lad was short fav that day so entitled to win the way it did i suppose.
But your states dont lie and looks like making running at nottingham could be interesting for sure.

 

[Chesham]

interesting chesham i had look at race, and the first thing i noticed was wasnt even a decent time, nearly 4 sec above standard, infact wasnt even the fastest time over that distance that day, first four in said race have all run couple times at least since and been well beat.
infact the one that done better time over same distance has since came out and won listed race sea silk road.
percys lad was short fav that day so entitled to win the way it did i suppose.
But your states dont lie and looks like making running at nottingham could be interesting for sure.

Hi gerry

I think you have missed the point and got bogged down with the Ratings, but although they are called Chesham Speed you will see that other factors are added if you look at the headings that give the eventual overall ratings.

The Point was about Post 463 of this thread and followed by a Pre Race Example . The Horse had been note-booked by me and the Sectional Time noted against the fact that it won from the front. There is a saying Fast Horses win Slow Races and Slow Horses win fast races.

The Pace Style of the Horse was posted Pre race and the C&D stats for such horses also posted in the original Pre race post. Which is there to demonstrate a way of thinking outside the box as described in Post 463.

So I posted the anticipated likely run style of the horse and also the fact that the C&D would suit that run style. How did the horse run in the actual race on the day I,posted Pre Race

made all, pushed along 2f out, ridden and ran on


With regards Ratings the Horse had the Best Class Rating (BCR) which is a Rating that Mtoto used and was achieved when 2nd in a Grp 2 race 24/10/20 . also had the Best LTO Chesham Performance Rating (76.92) amd the best Bower Rating and dropping class.

 

[gerry]

yep i get your points chesham,something i know i need look at more is pace of races.i have along way to the new way of thinking still old school form reading, and there is so much to take in to consideration .must admit your graphs are way ahead of my simplicity.

 

[matty1976]

Funny enough mick i think this factor has become more relevent over the years for some reason, i only backed mainly lto winner in the 60s and 70s and then towards the mid 80s i found a gradual change and many of my bets were like your own from hidden form more, and i bet very few lto out winners unless in higher class events of stakes races. So i for one can see where you are coming from with this view, and even more so in lower class h'caps because horses of lower abillities are generally found out quicker when more weight is added i feel.

Yes also with the easily win one can still not be sure, that is why i found as the the years went by i needed to search for value more because everybody else can see this easily form also and not to be drawn in and still look for good value on these even as well.

Reading through this really interesting thread.

I would say that backing lto winners in handicaps is also very dependant upon the type of horses taking part.
Tend to agree that in general it isn't the best ploy in 4yo + handicaps at the lower end of the scale. However, I would suggest that in 3yo, 3yo+ or 2yo nurseries, the winner is quite likely to be found amongst last time out winners. Reason being - there is quite likely to be an improver in these type of race which the handicapper has not caught up with, (of course, there could be in a 4yo+ handicap as well, but quite a bit less likely). The higher up the class level you go, I'd suggest the more likely it is the handicapper has caught up with these "improving" last time out winners.

Whether a fair proportion of these type of lto improvers are value, may well be another matter, of course. They sometimes can be though.


Other factors I like to consider in certain situations is why a powerful owner may have kept hold of an underperforming horse, (not talking about very exposed horses, but other types_).. With these type of horses, I tend to look at their race history quite closely to try and make an educated guess as to whether improvement is possible.
Maybe the horse's breeding offers encouragement, (particularly horse is trying something new, which pedigree suggests could well work), maybe there have been breaks in the horse's career, (not just the obvious days since last run - eg: perhaps a horse had a few runs as a two year old, then wasn't seen until the autumn of his two year old season, when having a couple of runs on bad ground and is now reappearing as a 4yo on decent ground).
Conversely, I don't like backing lto winners that have left a reasonably powerful owner since that lto win. Particularly if they are reasonably well bred. It suggests to me that the owner doesn't think there is anything more to come and have attempted to sell the horse at his/her peak, (some owners/trainers obviously being better at judging when that peak has arrived than others!).
Horses that have changed trainer are always worth a second-look to me, as a betting opportunity. I don't just mean on the first or second run for the new trainer - I tend also to consider how long it has been since the horse has changed yards, who the new trainer is, (and who the previous trainer was - perhaps considering what type of form the yard was in when the horse had last few starts for previous connections, how good the horse's old backform may be), etc.
Horses doing something different, (up or down in trip, trying a different surface, change of jockey, etc), are also something I like to look out for. I think the majority of pundits like to see that a horse is proven under conditions and that definitely has it's merits in many situations, but a horse doing something new interests me as well, (particularly but not exclusively with a less exposed horse).
The class horse in a race, (perhaps using VDW as an influence), is another thing I like to look out for.

The above can be quite overwhelming to my little brain sometimes and it is a labour-intensive way of betting, particularly when faced with the normally busy racing programme of the 2020s), but when in the right frame of mind for it, these are some of the things I like to look out for.
I'd say some of these type of approaches are quite contrarian

 

[mick]

Good read above M matty1976 Re my own comments about being reluctant to back lto winners i only work selected Hcaps for older horses and i accept your own thinking Re perhaps less applicable to the 3yo only and nursery races. These days truly contrarian thinking is a harder find with so much info out there, but minority thinking serves the same purpose Re being able to bet at value odds.

 

[dave58]

Good post M matty1976 , and many thanks for resurrecting the thread.
Some of my bonkers ideas from all those years ago are still doing OK , others have fallen by the wayside, but reading back over the ideas here has spurred me into re-investigation of some ideas, so thanks for that - it's going to keep me busy for a while !