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Thinking outside the box - horse racing

dave58

Administrator
From a discussion elsewhere the point was made that to make a profit at gambling (any sport) you really need an edge over the bookies and that sometimes using a completely different type of thinking from other punters can be a godsend.

With that in mind I thought I would start a thread where we can share some of our more obscure ideas.

I don't think it particularly matters whether they have proved successful or not, my thinking is that the occasional throwaway comment by one person might lead to a spark of genius by another, hopefully to mutual benefit.

Just as a kick off I'll give a really daft one.
When at the greyhounds , back the one that has a poo just before the race. He'll be a bit lighter, and we all know what a relief it is, so he'll be in a good mood and ready to take on the world.

I have a couple more, but does anyone else want to join in, you never know we might find the holy grail between us. Don't worry about sounding silly, if we treat the thread as a bit of fun who knows where it might end.
 

mick

Sire
For those who like to follow well backed horses. Odds checkers pie charts are updated via direct info from the Bookmakers but this is based on the quantity of bets not size. If one is showing blue on the odds grid but not showing on the pie chart this means the bookmakers are taking fewer but larger bets on the horse, info which might prove more useful.
 

mick

Sire
The most profitable thinking outside the box ploy which i use is when i have backed a horse who drifts in the market i will sometimes top up at the bigger price. This is not something i do blindly and reasons need to be sought and found but i keep separate records of these extra gains bets and they are showing a better Roi than my main ones.

When one drifts you hear the many say they don't want it........its not off etc but on many occasions there are other non sinister or non negative reasons responsible which do not prevent the win. :)
 

mick

Sire
What about looking at areas which others are ignoring or are less interested in.? Older members will recall the massive interest in ante post betting back in the day but although i do not know the industry turnover figs i suspect the interest is far less these days. The Bookmakers still want to price up the races if only not to feel left out but i think spend less time on doing so and this increases the chance that they will make mistakes which we can take advantage of.

When talking AP people tend to think weeks or even months in advance but three days before the race is still AP and can still provide some great value opportunities.
 

dave58

Administrator
That's an interesting idea @mick regarding the prices. I have to admit that I tend to find my selections the evening before racing, then if the price looks similar to the forecast SP I will back it then, if not I'll wait until the morning.
Probably because of my selection methods any price moves seem pretty random, maybe I should look into them a bit further. It's not something I have really looked at in depth before, so thanks for the reply.
 

mick

Sire
@dave58 even if we can obtain bog then betting at the right time can add to your profit line. It is generally accepted that 1.5% per horse is a fair margin to both backer and layer so as an example a 10rn race the over round fig should be around 15% so as a general guide if its currently say 10% then some horses are def going to shorten up so its a good time to bet, but if its 20% then it can pay to hang fire because some will lengthen in price.

The other OSB is that increasingly people are influenced by the exchange so looking at these things from a different perspective can prove useful.
 
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OnTheNod

Gelding
One thing i use to do and i know i have explained with my C/D method with going back two years and then lining up the elements so they are all in line near enough and then they become a big price because they have been running on tracks they dont really like of other factors, i also found it could work on similar tracks as well if you check back a horses history and plot its wins and see its preferences but Epsom seemed a track all on its own for some reason.
 

mick

Sire
Some good OSB course thinking is when a horses best run (perhaps off form or speed ratings) has been at the course but its never won there. When it returns there is no overt CW in its form line for punters to latch on to and this can create a value situation. The smart betting yards once they have this form often do not return to the same course for months in a bid to further mask its worth when they do.
 

OnTheNod

Gelding
Some good OSB course thinking is when a horses best run (perhaps off form or speed ratings) has been at the course but its never won there. When it returns there is no overt CW in its form line for punters to latch on to and this can create a value situation. The smart betting yards once they have this form often do not return to the same course for months in a bid to further mask its worth when they do.
That seems a good one Mick but would maybe be hard to track them, or even Chesham could find a way with hrb i know when use to do alot of form study i use to look for race comments such a r.o. well or a fast finish on a certain courses, i use to use split seconds figs to a degree as well and had some nice winners that way.

It's a bit like an unexposed horse can win on a course it may like and cause an upset, which i was trying to explain to Formtheory once, the horse i think had one run and won on the course in a low event, i never backed like this but i kept it in mind when doing my form study.
 

mick

Sire
@OnTheNod i have enjoyed some good wins over the years when this has been part of the animals form but its not something i would go looking for to find a bet but rather often a positive when it finds me as part of my profiling of a horse who i am already interested in for other reasons.
 

Dave

Filly
For those who like to follow well backed horses. Odds checkers pie charts are updated via direct info from the Bookmakers but this is based on the quantity of bets not size. If one is showing blue on the odds grid but not showing on the pie chart this means the bookmakers are taking fewer but larger bets on the horse, info which might prove more useful.
Nice logical thinking Mick @mick and something worth thinking about.
 

hedgehog

Mare
What I'm looking for is always something simple that can easily be tested, much like my rudimentary handicapping on my old thread. I don't really care if it is off the wall just so long as the information is easily available to give it a decent test. The simpler the idea the more likely it will have been overlooked, people get caught up in the idea of making it perfect when close enough will often do

Sorry if that seems idiotic but the idea has to be easily testable to make it worth while

Good luck tomorrow
 

Jimbo

Filly
One that has saved me some money in the past was to avoid maidens in handicaps,haven't any figures but think I remember reading that only around 10% of them win handicaps ?
 

mick

Sire
One that has saved me some money in the past was to avoid maidens in handicaps,haven't any figures but think I remember reading that only around 10% of them win handicaps ?
With you on this and your above sentence is worth expanding on because when i come up with a new idea or avoidance aspect which might improve my thinking and results i purposely do not check the all in past fig data. When possible the only back checking i do is via my own past bets. To my mind the only truly relevant figs are the unknown future ones and we can safely check these via paper proofing. If the aspect appears to be working i also need to find what i call racing reasons to help understand why.

One of the best comments i ever read was from a full time backer who said " I do not need to find more winners but rather avoid more losers" Of course this reads like stating the obvious and yet depending on your outlook as a punter if also contains plenty of sense.? One i implemented a while ago was to swerve backing lto winners and this prob counts as minority thinking.?

What happens when a horse won lto the OH raises its rating but the press and public zone in on that apparent positive 1 fig and this reduces its value aspect so while its an easier find is it one worth having.? When i had this thought i checked my previous bets on lto winners going back many years and discovered that for myself swerving them made sense on balance. Yes doing so would have cost me some winners but the losers avoided became the straighter.

Of course they do win plenty of races and counter arguments and stats could be provided to show the situation as being a positive but the important aspect is that they don't suit me when i am risking my money. If outside of the box thinking = minority thinking then this has to be a positive but disagreeing for its own sake would be a disaster. You have to understand and justify why and this need also lends itself to some OTB thinking.

@dave58 started this thread with the good intention of helping newbies but imo we are all learners and always will be.
 

tacker

Colt
One that has saved me some money in the past was to avoid maidens in handicaps,haven't any figures but think I remember reading that only around 10% of them win handicaps ?
@Jimbo This 10% stat is one of many that if you think a little deeper about it might well be a decent number providing you pick the correct one, the point being i wouldn't be put off backing a maiden in a handicap unless there was something in his running style that suggests a dodgepot or whatever.
The main thing is how well handicapped or otherwise is the horse and if the general consensus is not to back the 10% then i'm happy to be outside the box.
One more thought.....What percentage of racehorses go into handicaps as maidens ? i would think the number would be quite high or different from what we might guess.
 

mlmrob

Sire
In Ireland they have schooling races. These can be very informative but getting information from them is difficult but priceless when you do. Every Tuesday at Lismore there are schooling races over the jumps and every Friday at Curraghmore.

This also happens at Newcastle on the all weather. Pop into Gosforth Park on non race days and you will see horseboxes from a variety of stables in the North. The late Alan Swinbank had so many bumper winners fto as they already had raced on track.

I presume the same happens at other all weather tracks as at £60 per horse its a nice earner for the tracks.
 

mick

Sire
Sorry if that seems idiotic but the idea has to be easily testable to make it worth while
While the KISS principle does not appeal to myself i would say your above post is far more honest than idiotic. I never investigated so have no idea of its worth but the following was told to me by another punter years ago and would be easily testable..........Add the horses race card number to its draw fig and the lowest fig is the selection...............The thinking being this gives the best drawn class horse in the race. Some discrimination would be a need Re the draw aspect but on most turning courses low is deemed a positive indeed i have read that these situations also favor weight carrying.
 

mlmrob

Sire
This year alone 66% of all non handicap maidens have been won by the first or second favourite. In NH racing that increases to 71%. So it makes sense to have a look at these races There are certain trainers who have an 80%+ strike rate in these type of races.
 
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