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The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune - "From Start to Finish", "Entering the Straight"

I had a 20/80 squeak @10.0, as there does not seem to be anything to suggest Alflaila won't have a good run today, apart from the fact that the trainer hasn't been setting the page alight over the last 14 days.

My class ratings at the distance for the top three on ability:

Alflaila 118
Inspiral 111
Auguste Rodin 109

AR needs some improvement and we won't know until the race, whether or not it will.

Regards
 
T Tufnel

I've mainly looked at the Royal Hunt Cup because Dutch Decoy is one of my 24 to follow list. Much as I'd like to see him win, the level of improvement he would need to show is such that, even for this extraordinary horse, I can't see it.

Given the class of this handicap, I am not surprised by the age winner stats you quote, as for virtually all runners winning today would (at least on my ratings) represent their career best to date. The exception is previous winner Tempus, now an 8yo. 4yos and 5yos are more likely to be able to show significant levels of improvement.

Apart from Tempus, only seven fall within the age-specific improvement parameters I use, including two 4yos and two 5yos.

Beshtani. Difficult to access, with only one UK run and that at Epsom; rather different to Ascot.

Thunder Ball. The win which gives numerical plausibility was on soft, in a very small field at Goodwood.

Sonny Liston. 2nd in the race last year as a 25/1 shot, he is plausible numerically on his win lto. Not sure about 9.13 in this company, though.

The Gatekeeper. Numerically the best of the four, but like Thunder Ball his best performances have been on soft.

Apart from Tempus, the older horses within my eight are Bless Him (but now a 10yo), Blue For You (back down to his last winning mark) and one of your pair, Peretto (312 days since last run).

None of these comes close to a bet, but I have had a dabble on Blue For You at 50.0, and I hope to have a similar sum in the eight to place market later.
 
Both my Royal Hunt Cup horses ran really well, but not quite good enough. Perotto beaten under a length in 3rd at 25/1 and Couer d'Or 6th staying on very well in the last furlong at 12/1.

Encouraging, but always a bit galling to see one of the favourites win anyway when you've judged their form to not be good enough. Wild Tiger was clearly way better than his low 80s mark he started from this spring.
 
T Tufnel

I don't know if you are still looking at the VDW best bet/next best six sort - Travado and co. If so, in one of the smaller meetings taking place in the shadow of Royal Ascot, there is a good example of the Ever Smile type; Rocking Ends in the 2.50 Chelmsford.
 
T Tufnel

I don't know if you are still looking at the VDW best bet/next best six sort - Travado and co. If so, in one of the smaller meetings taking place in the shadow of Royal Ascot, there is a good example of the Ever Smile type; Rocking Ends in the 2.50 Chelmsford.
I'm still keeping my eye out for them, though I still haven't got things completely sussed by any stretch. Rocking Ends looks to have the right profile and is well handicapped still on form with previous trainer.

I would be concerned about both Emperor Spirit and Lord Riddiford as the both have form and/or wins in much higher class within the last season. In Ever Smile's race only Jadidh had a recent win in higher class and that was after being behind Ever Smile at Wincanton. Nick The Beak also had a win in higher class but it was well over a year before carrying a fair bit of weight less and had been running well below since.

So it could well be a solid ES type and no surprise if he regains the winning thread, but the 2 horses I highlighted possibly would've steered VDW away from it? But that's just an educated guess.
 
T Tufnel

I think RE has the right type of profile for an Ever Smile type, but as you point out, there is always the rest of the field to consider.

I must say RE is being backed as it defeat is out of the question. When I checked early this morning the best odds were 7/2 with bet365. I placed a bet at 4.5 on Betfair, fully expecting it to be matched, but when I went back mid-morning it hadn't been and RE was 3.0 or so. Now 2.74. I don't want it at anything like that price and I am clearly not going to get 4.5, so I've cancelled.

Lord Riddiford is one of my 24 to follow and at 22.0+ it is tempting to have a dabble. I don't think he will be fully wound up for this, though, as the prize money is, by his standards, pocket change. My guess is that they will try to win the same Goodwood sprint as they have for the last two years, and he obviously has abetter chance of doing so without an OR rise from a win today.

Anyway, now the 2.50 is just of academic interest to me, rather than financial as well.
 
T Tufnel

I think RE has the right type of profile for an Ever Smile type, but as you point out, there is always the rest of the field to consider.

I must say RE is being backed as it defeat is out of the question. When I checked early this morning the best odds were 7/2 with bet365. I placed a bet at 4.5 on Betfair, fully expecting it to be matched, but when I went back mid-morning it hadn't been and RE was 3.0 or so. Now 2.74. I don't want it at anything like that price and I am clearly not going to get 4.5, so I've cancelled.

Lord Riddiford is one of my 24 to follow and at 22.0+ it is tempting to have a dabble. I don't think he will be fully wound up for this, though, as the prize money is, by his standards, pocket change. My guess is that they will try to win the same Goodwood sprint as they have for the last two years, and he obviously has abetter chance of doing so without an OR rise from a win today.

Anyway, now the 2.50 is just of academic interest to me, rather than financial as well.
Yes, both good points. It seems everyone wants to be on RE today, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him, other than the very short price. Unlucky you didn't get matched as you'd be in a nice position now. Let's see how it pans out.

I think the best bet at Chelmsford today is Stay Well in the 4:10 and at Ascot I'm also backing Diamond Rain and Kyprios.
 
T Tufnel

Rather glad I wasn't matched on RE as that would have been a bet, not a dabble.

Did you see how Lord R started - or didn't! He won't do that when they want him to win!

Actually an unusual day for me in that I planned a bet and two dabbles. I don't usually do much more than that in a week, let alone a day. I've dabbled on Bay Breeze in the 3.55 Ripon, and (without a lot of confidence) Breeze in the 6.05 Ascot. I can be sanguine about them, though, given how much I didn't lose on RE!
 
I'd almost forgotten about the Handicap Hurdle method that VDW gave some selections for but never elaborated further on how to solve the puzzle he set. He said he uses "straight forward logical processes to arrive at the selection."

I don't suppose anyone has the form from jumps season 1985/86 for these horses mentioned for this method? Attached page screenshot shows those given.

Screenshot 2024-06-25 at 21.18.06.pngI suspect they may give me further clues for the Ever Smile method?
 
So what is form well there can only be three types, good form, bad form, and no form.Thats the first step in any race pure and simple facts.
So then we look at races of the day what are we looking for is next question for me anyway.
I am looking for mainly races with no form to disregard, Then races with more no form horses than form horses as could be missleading to look at ones with good form and how will you ever know its better than no form horses if there to many of them in the race.

Now we have races with only three possibles and thats horses with good form, or horses with bad form, or horses with mixture of good and bad form.
So now what do we do we look at the bad form races incase there something with hidden good form which as we go through, we know were likely wasting time but still the odd one pops up.
Then the good form races where class is usually the first point to look at for each horse and if some with same class colateral form usually is there along with going they like and distance.
Then the one where you get the best bets mainly the races with good and bad form as you can quickly get rid of bad form horses and this is the races where you have maybe only a third of the field to concern about at all.
These usually are the first 4 or 5 in betting but thats ok as these are where all the winners are in these races and were not talking about 60 percent were talking more like 90 percent or more.

So if we have got 4 or 5 horses to pick between in each race and we know the winner will be in these horses say 95 percent i would say thats brilliant.
But thats where the real form is analysing these horses for class going track distance collateral form which is running against each other or running against a horse they both run against, just for those that maybe didnt know.
After having what you believe is the best form its worth looking at the trainer and jockey form lately and at track.
Finally i am not sure the guys hes talking about dont know what form is but i would bet most of them cant be bothered with the work.
 
T Tufnel

I don't have the relevant form book nor much else relating to the six handicap hurdles winners VDW claimed, and given that I focus only on Flat handicaps researching them has not been a priority to me. But somewhere, I don't think it was the Gummy archive material, I came across the following from a poster who reckons to have found the solution. Hopefully it helps.

"The Handicap Hurdle selections are found by taking the three best placings last time out from the horses that had run within 28 days. The other proviso being that they must be a course or distance winner.

Qualifiers for the period were;
Mon, Dec 16, 1985
Kelso 12:15 Tarchin, Bullom, Islay Mist W9/1
Leic 3:00 No qualifiers
Tue, Dec 17
Folk 1:45 No qualifiers
Ludl 3:00 Cawarra Lad, Jupiter Express, Merry Jane W11/4F, Isom Dart
Wed, Dec 18
Catt 12:45 Kindred, Sparkler Superb
Thu, Dec 19
Carl 3:15 Vitriolic, Flying Oats W13/2
Here 1:00 No qualifiers
Here 3:00 Mithras W14/1, Coombe Spirit
Fri, Dec 20
Fake 1:15 True Imp, Tavargos, Marjoram
Fake 3:15 Pagan Sun W11/4, Rix Woodcock
Kels 3:00 Duke Of Dollis, Secret Walk, Norwhistle
Sat, Dec 21
Chep 3:40 Highland Gold
Ling 12:45 No qualifiers
Ling 2:15 Winter Measure, Opening Bars, Rheffanosa, Ballywest, Windreaker W12/1
Nott 3:15 No qualifiers

All the above was researched from the Form Book so do not include any non runners that may have been in the newspapers."
 
T Tufnel

I don't have the relevant form book nor much else relating to the six handicap hurdles winners VDW claimed, and given that I focus only on Flat handicaps researching them has not been a priority to me. But somewhere, I don't think it was the Gummy archive material, I came across the following from a poster who reckons to have found the solution. Hopefully it helps.

"The Handicap Hurdle selections are found by taking the three best placings last time out from the horses that had run within 28 days. The other proviso being that they must be a course or distance winner.

Qualifiers for the period were;
Mon, Dec 16, 1985
Kelso 12:15 Tarchin, Bullom, Islay Mist W9/1
Leic 3:00 No qualifiers
Tue, Dec 17
Folk 1:45 No qualifiers
Ludl 3:00 Cawarra Lad, Jupiter Express, Merry Jane W11/4F, Isom Dart
Wed, Dec 18
Catt 12:45 Kindred, Sparkler Superb
Thu, Dec 19
Carl 3:15 Vitriolic, Flying Oats W13/2
Here 1:00 No qualifiers
Here 3:00 Mithras W14/1, Coombe Spirit
Fri, Dec 20
Fake 1:15 True Imp, Tavargos, Marjoram
Fake 3:15 Pagan Sun W11/4, Rix Woodcock
Kels 3:00 Duke Of Dollis, Secret Walk, Norwhistle
Sat, Dec 21
Chep 3:40 Highland Gold
Ling 12:45 No qualifiers
Ling 2:15 Winter Measure, Opening Bars, Rheffanosa, Ballywest, Windreaker W12/1
Nott 3:15 No qualifiers

All the above was researched from the Form Book so do not include any non runners that may have been in the newspapers."
Thanks J JennyK for that. Presumably the original poster had solved how to narrow down to one selection, but probably didn't want to reveal that part?
It's a shame I lost so many of my old form books, because I'm sure I had a chaseform annual for that season.
One thing I notice is that the basic premise, if correct, doesn't shortlist Ever Smile. The best 3 lto placings in the previous 28 days gave Landsdowne, Jadidh, High Grade and Nick The Beak.
Ever Smile's 5th was 27 days before but missed the shortlist cut by one. Maybe I'm wrong about it being the same method, but from what VDW said in the UWOF article and also in the final part of Systematic Betting, he had many lines of investigation or methods. The question is were these a great many or just a handful of methods?
 
T Tufnel

I have the Daily Mail race cards, the Sporting Life race cards and form for those races. I'll send them across to you if you want me to - as they don't screen shot very well to put them on the forum.

Are you still on the same email address?
 
T Tufnel

The one I copied is as far as I know the only post I have relating to the handicap hurdle method, or indeed by the poster (Garston), so I don't know whether he had a view about how the qualifiers were reduced to single selections (if indeed they were).

Checking my notes, I have some data on two of the six, Flying Oats and Windbreaker.

Flying Oats/Vitriolic. I have both as in the first six of, I assume, the Life's forecast, with ARs respectively of 6 and 9, and from the details I have of their last three runs, both were VDW form horses.

Windbreaker/Winter Measure/Opening Bars/Rheffanosa/Ballywest. Three were in the first six of the forecast, but not Windbreaker or Ballywest, though they might have been in other forecasts. I have their ARs as, respectively, 10, 14, 9, 14 and 15. I don't have the detail to be sure, but I have Windbreaker's three last placings total as 30 (which probably includes at least one run as higher as anything over 10 VDW counted as 10). Highly unlikely with three such poor placings he would be a VDW form horse though possible he might have what VDW referred to as less obvious form.

re Ever Smile, don't forget he was a selection made over ten years after Flying Oats etc so likely that VDW's methods would have developed in that time.

Best of luck.


ps

I have now found a very brief reference to the handicap hurdle selections in my file of posts by Lee from the Gummy archive, as follows:

"As you're aware Pagan Sun is a different kettle of fish to the majority of VDW's selections and therefore takes some sorting out. It revolves around elements that are pretty much isolated to this type of horse race though .... Specific to Handicap Hurdles."
 
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T Tufnel

The one I copied is as far as I know the only post I have relating to the handicap hurdle method, or indeed by the poster (Garston), so I don't know whether he had a view about how the qualifiers were reduced to single selections (if indeed they were).

Checking my notes, I have some data on two of the six, Flying Oats and Windbreaker.

Flying Oats/Vitriolic. I have both as in the first six of, I assume, the Life's forecast, with ARs respectively of 6 and 9, and from the details I have of their last three runs, both were VDW form horses.

Windbreaker/Winter Measure/Opening Bars/Rheffanosa/Ballywest. Three were in the first six of the forecast, but not Windbreaker or Ballywest, though they might have been in other forecasts. I have their ARs as, respectively, 10, 14, 9, 14 and 15. I don't have the detail to be sure, but I have Windbreaker's three last placings total as 30 (which probably includes at least one run as higher as anything over 10 VDW counted as 10). Highly unlikely with three such poor placings he would be a VDW form horse though possible he might have what VDW referred to as less obvious form.

re Ever Smile, don't forget he was a selection made over ten years after Flying Oats etc so likely that VDW's methods would have developed in that time.

Best of luck.


ps

I have now found a very brief reference to the handicap hurdle selections in my file of posts by Lee from the Gummy archive, as follows:

"As you're aware Pagan Sun is a different kettle of fish to the majority of VDW's selections and therefore takes some sorting out. It revolves around elements that are pretty much isolated to this type of horse race though .... Specific to Handicap Hurdles."
Thanks J JennyK

Pitmatic Pitmatic very kindly emailed me scans of the form and Daily Mail cards,etc for each race, so I am going through them now and some of the form is sparking my memories of looking at these selections in the distant past, especially Windbreaker who was another of those that had been running out of the weights and was not in the first 6 of any forecast.

Another point that strikes me is that the winners came from all over the weight ranges, some at the top, some at the bottom and others in the middle. Obvious form is thin on the ground too, but some of them were dropping in class.

Mithras for example, had been running in various class of races in his last 3 runs and even though it was only mid Dec of that season he had already run 5 times finishing 5-4-3-2 and then 5th on last run before the Hereford race, where he was a previous course winner but over 2 miles not the 3m 1f he was entered for. Since that 2m win though he had won over 3m at both Huntingdon and Towcester.

In his last 3 runs he had run in 3 handicap hurdles including:
Nov 7th at Chelteham over 3m 1 f class 40 with 10-8 finishing 3rd (7/1 from 10s)
Nov 22nd Nottingham 3 1/2m class 18 with 10-7 2nd (15/8 fav)
Nov 30th Chepstow 3m class 66 with 10-2 5th (17/2 from 14s)

The Hereford race on 19th Dec was a 3m 1f class 13 and Mithras carried 11-11 as second in the weights. The jockey remained the same one throughout all runs.

Other points I note were that Mithras had been ridden prominently and led until the closing stages when he was fav and 2nd at Nottingham and also when 3rd at Cheltenham. There are no comments for the Chepstow race.

So switching to a lower class race than any of his last 3 runs, and from stiffer tracks were clearly positives for his chance.

Anyway, lots of work to do on these, and also today's cards to look at.
 
I probably tried to juggle too much today, studying the handicap hurdle examples whilst trying to sort out selections in other races today. Never seems to work.

I've run the basics through HRB and found that the best 3 placings within the last 28 days doesn't seem to throw up many possibles at all. Certainly not 6 selections within a week's racing as per VDWs examples. And the strike rate was low too.

But a few things struck me, and they are similar to factors I have been considering for a long time with handicaps especially, whatever the code of racing.

The first one is that those who win with lower weights are usually not coming there with recent form figs down the field. There's very often evidence of improved efforts in their last completed start.

And secondly, the opposite seems to occur with many higher weighted winners in that they have shown recent form to be more of the less obvious form. This can be where they have been over faced in respect of class, distance, going, track, etc. Or they put in what seems to be a bad one after showing some consistency or progression and either have a rest or are returned quickly to the track.

So with that in mind, I've set up 2 "systems" to highlight those running in handicap hurdle races who pass the initial tests of placings in a way that I can consider the 2 different types (lower weighted and higher weighted) in isolation rather than trying to sort them all out with the same thinking cap on.

From what I've seen in the data, there are plenty of times when only one or two qualify anyway, but on other occasions it can be 3 or 4 from one set and maybe a couple or more in the other.

Sod's law there are no jumps races tomorrow anyway, but there's plenty to consider on Friday's cards. Hopefully I can find some good prospects before start of play on Friday.
 
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