The 70%

[tonyafc]

Hi this is an idea for a new thread I will try to highlight all the home sides with a 70% or higher chance of winning at fair prices
Bolton 5/6
Charlton 23/20
Wimbledon 21/20
Plymouth 21/10
Cologne 10/11
Hoffenheim 21/20
Monchengladbach 8/13
Levante 3/4
Napoli 5/6
Dumbarton 13/10
Queen of the south 4/6
That makes 11 matches and I'm hopping at least 7 will come in I don't know how well this will work but the probability ratio is at least 70% for these good luck if you are having a bet today!
70% probability converted to odds is 1.43 anything higher would suggest a fair price.

 

[NigelRG]

Good luck tonyafc

Nige

 

[tonyafc]

Well with one game still to play a poor result for this only 4 winners so far but on a quick breakdown the German teams were 2/3 the only loss were monchengladbach who missed two penalties in their 0-0 draw Napoli were a major disappointment as this match normally goes to the home side I fact this is the first time in six meetings that the away side has managed a goal let alone 3 further research needed I will scrap the Scottish lower leagues completely as I can't get an angle on these I still think there are a few angles with these that are good a few alterations and this might still be worthwhile I will be back and an updated p/l when the results of the last match is known as I intend running this for a month !

 

[*tom*]

the only loss were monchengladbach who missed two penalties

So ManCity weren't the only ones then!

 

[tonyafc]

Well the last match won Levante winning 2-1 making 5 wins and 6 losses once again the Euro teams perform better than their British counterparts a loss on the day of 1.15 points not happy with this but not totally doom and gloom plenty of thoughts to take into the next set of matches!

 

[tonyafc]

Well here goes today's selections all are in Europe and I'm hopping for a better return the odds are lower but all are fair ie above 1.43 the home sides arete selection
Saint Etienne v Dijon 8/11
Mainz v Darmastadt 1/2
Rayo Vallecano v Numancia 17/20
Zaragoza v Dodge
Fiorentena v Atlanta 8/11
Genoa v Empoli 17/20
Sassulo v Crontone 8/15
Lech Poznan v Wilsa Krakow 3/4
Eight selections all European slightly lower odds but hopefully a better return today will update latter with p/l when the results are known good luck to all having a bet today!

 

[tonyafc]

On the face of it a total disaster with only the German selection winning but when we look further into the results
Saint Etienne 1-1
Rayo Vallecano 3-3
Fiorentena 0-0
Genoa 0-0
Sassulo won 2-1
Zaragoza lost 1-3 so 1x would have proved successful and goals wouldn't have been much use
I did include two teams not in the elite bracket ie Rayo and Zaragoza so food for thought aloss on the day of 4.8 points which is poor but as a work in progress I put 25 points aside for this but I wouldn't want many more days like this!