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Testing A system

runnerjp

runnerjp

Gelding
Thought I would post asking for people thoughts and opinions on what to do when you get a system.

I thought I would post one of mine as an example.

So i look at the previous 5 years when looking for a 'system' and looking try make profit or as close to break even over those 5 years.
Following on from advice on here I have settled with between a 25% win rate as min and a chi of 4+

1622219045975.png
So here is a simple system I came up with to test this year ..... Appleby runners going over 5f first time out.

So i suppose this is the bit that does not get talked about alot and thats where to go from here....

My thought process on this is 2 ways. If it is a yearly system (runs month to month) run it for 2-3 months and check the system keep to what is expected.

In one like this this only runs april to may to run it this year and if the results confirm this year than next stick some of my hard earned cash on it.

Now the results are as follows:

1622219326208.png

2020 was amiss due to covid and 17/18/19 ticked some boxes for me.

This year only 2 horses where sent out and 0 won. So my questions here are , is this the right approach to be taking/ any advice on this.

Also look at this would you scrap this system or try again next year?
 
Hi runnerjp runnerjp , I am not really a system follower so probably not the best person to comment on this, but I do take an interest in them and stats form a big part of my selection process.

I used this exact stat to back up my bet on Wild Beauty earlier this month as also posted on my thread. I had some doubts before backing WB as her pedigree didn’t suggest she was a 5 furlongs horse as immediate family had winners only over further. And after the race, I felt this is where I had gone wrong by giving more importance to trainer than horse’s pedigree, and she confirmed my view by winning over 6 furlongs next time, without carrying any of my money I might add. So this is my opinion on this, that in stats like this it’s also about the horse and not just the trainer, but perhaps I am basing my opinion on one race that didn’t go in my favour.
 
Thanks for you input frontrunner.

I was more looking at a wider view on systems themselves around testing and when a green light should be given.

That being said you have hit a good point on the trainer is only part of the puzzle ... The engine is the horse itself. Although I suppose on the above you still would have backed it anyway as there was not enough confidence in the distance pedigree not to and thats why I like systems as it takes away that uncertainty.
 
I can't see that you've seen it runnerjp runnerjp but take a look at dave58 dave58 insightful post on this page #1,100 ( as well as others ).
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk

Thoughts and selections

In 8:00 race, the winner was Starsky, one of the last two remaining on my shortlist, other one Samtara was unplaced. But if I was betting, tbh I think I would have ended up backing the other one as market drift was a negative on the winner. This is one problem I am having with understanding the...
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk www.theukbettingforum.co.uk
I'm pretty much in the same boat with regards HRB 'simple' systems, over back-fitting, and wouldn't be of much help. I think my problem is a 'patience' issue and cannot test first before betting and so end up ditching too soon.
 
Yes I understand runnerjp runnerjp

And you are correct on your second point too. I did back the horse for same reason that a top trainer like that would know what the right distance for his horse is, and most times that would be true. In this particular case, there could have been other reasons, maybe the horse was ready to run and as there were no 6f races at the time he had to start her over 5, or maybe the trainer did get it wrong which seems less likely to me.
 
runnerjp said:
Thought I would post asking for people thoughts and opinions on what to do when you get a system.

I thought I would post one of mine as an example.

So i look at the previous 5 years when looking for a 'system' and looking try make profit or as close to break even over those 5 years.
Following on from advice on here I have settled with between a 25% win rate as min and a chi of 4+

View attachment 101090
So here is a simple system I came up with to test this year ..... Appleby runners going over 5f first time out.

So i suppose this is the bit that does not get talked about alot and thats where to go from here....

My thought process on this is 2 ways. If it is a yearly system (runs month to month) run it for 2-3 months and check the system keep to what is expected.

In one like this this only runs april to may to run it this year and if the results confirm this year than next stick some of my hard earned cash on it.

Now the results are as follows:

View attachment 101091

2020 was amiss due to covid and 17/18/19 ticked some boxes for me.

This year only 2 horses where sent out and 0 won. So my questions here are , is this the right approach to be taking/ any advice on this.

Also look at this would you scrap this system or try again next year?
Click to expand...
When I make my systems, I always turn off the results for the last year and only by checking the results for that year, I decide whether to save that system or not.
 
Good idea L lazar23. Hrb can do that for you by the way - just get your system up and press the 'stats' button and it will break it down by year.
What I do is every few months I run a report showing results over the last year (depending on the number of qualifiers there are, you have the option of looking at more recent results)
 
retriever said:
I can't see that you've seen it runnerjp runnerjp but take a look at dave58 dave58 insightful post on this page #1,100 ( as well as others ).
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk

Thoughts and selections

In 8:00 race, the winner was Starsky, one of the last two remaining on my shortlist, other one Samtara was unplaced. But if I was betting, tbh I think I would have ended up backing the other one as market drift was a negative on the winner. This is one problem I am having with understanding the...
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk www.theukbettingforum.co.uk
I'm pretty much in the same boat with regards HRB 'simple' systems, over back-fitting, and wouldn't be of much help. I think my problem is a 'patience' issue and cannot test first before betting and so end up ditching too soon.
Click to expand...
Thanks mate.... So many good posts that get lost in the forest. I swear I find a great post each day just randomly searching key words
 
Frontrunner said:
Yes I understand runnerjp runnerjp

And you are correct on your second point too. I did back the horse for same reason that a top trainer like that would know what the right distance for his horse is, and most times that would be true. In this particular case, there could have been other reasons, maybe the horse was ready to run and as there were no 6f races at the time he had to start her over 5, or maybe the trainer did get it wrong which seems less likely to me.
Click to expand...
perhaps a training run .... Blow out the cobwebs alittle
 
I personally think one needs many trials over a ten year period to make things more solid, many of mine petered out if just to few a trials to go with, one has to trap things from many angles if possible also then maybe things could be even more safer, but still nothing is foolproof though i think, one has to accept that aspect about unpredictability in more chance events and what can happen overtime as the elements evolve forwards i believe.
 
dave58 said:
Just thought I'd mention there's another qualifier from my older horses idea today - Nikki Steel in the 5:42 Uttoxeter.
I wouldn't normally mention it, but hrb showed it at 16/1 last night and it's now at 7/1.
It's got none of my hard earned on it, so just watch the bugger win now !!!
Click to expand...
dave58 dave58

Sticking this in here to not take over another thread - How long would you give it until you are happy to add money to it?

I usually back test systems (all mine are football inplay bots) and let it run for 1 month then add the next month with small stakes then if both months tick the box let it roll but interested to see how others go about this
 
runnerjp runnerjp, I have about a dozen or so active systems, and several that I am currently paper trading, so there's no hurry.
I tend to err on the side of caution, so it's going to be a good few months before I will even consider moving it to the 'active' list.
 
Also with your trainer with the older horses. Thinking about it but would it be better to perhaps follow the horses themselves rather then the trainer. Had a look at the results and the same horses keep popping up as the winners
 
Yes, I would expect the same horses to keep cropping up here, and yes there's no reason why you couldn't follow the individual horses rather than the trainer - I would imagine the results would be pretty much the same.
My original idea however was to look at trainers that have a good record at keeping older horses in decent health - that way then it will highlight any horses new to the system a bit quicker.

Lots of different ways to skin a cat I guess, it's whatever works for the individual.

Don't know about you, but I have lots of fun playing with hrb, and it's good to share thoughts with each other.
 
Yes I have been playing with some machine learning over the last year on the football with auto bots. Thats now tied up until the new Season so moved on with hrb over the summer. I will be creating (another) thread tomorrow to track my hrb bets. Just wanted to grab some thoughts and opinions with you while its fresh in mind.

Always learning!
 
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