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Taking On Hugh Taylor

Chigorin

Filly
The following posts are copies of a thread I started on another site - but didn't continue once the site crashed and went down for several days. I am continuing the thread now under the same name on the Tips page.

Rounds 1 - 4

I’m going to match my selections to those races chosen by Hugh Taylor on the excellent ATR pages. As many of you will know, Taylor gives daily tips and has run considerable profits for the last 5 years. He really is the bar in terms of proven tipsters.

The rules of this little competition are as follows:

1. The competition will run over 50 selections and the winner will be whoever has the greatest profit. (I expect to finish around Xmas.)
2. I will only select horses from races selected by Taylor, and other than his selection.
3. I will only use BOG firms odds (although the system I am using is geared specifically for use on the exchanges)
4. I can choose which of Taylor’s races to compete in.
5. Like Tayor I can choose whether to make a ‘to win’ or ‘each way’ bet.
6. I will match (in points) whatever stake Taylor makes.

Wish me luck – I will post round 1 shortly…
Round 1
2 September Kempton 19.50

Hugh Taylor : Ze King 14/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Shalambar 25/1 (1point)
Round 1 Result

Hugh Taylor -1, Chigorin -1.
Round 2

3 September Kempton 20.40

Hugh Taylor : King Calypso 7/2 (1 point)
Chigorin: Assoluta 33/1 each way (1point)

Hugh Taylor has stayed at Kempton and justifiably selects a proven favourite.

I’ll be backing two real outisders on the exchanges where better odds and place bets are possible. Classic Mission was much improved last time out and JG Portman has had an excellent couple of weeks so I fancy the gelding to outrace the long odds offered on the exchanges, especially now it is racing at what is likely to be his best distance.

However, my pick for the match with Hugh Taylor is Assoluta. It may seem strange to take a horse well beaten on its last two outing by Taylor’s selection but the filly will be running almost a stone better in comparison to the favourite this time. Renato Souza has won on her before and her draw, immediately outside King Calypso, will allow Souza to track the favourite to the finish giving her every chance of saving a place at least.
Round 2

3 September Kempton 20.40

Hugh Taylor : King Calypso 7/2 (1 point)
Chigorin: Sandy Cove 11/2 (1point)

Unfortunately my selection for tonight's race is a non-runner. I'm tempted to substitute with Classic Mission for the reasons I gave above but the gulf between exchange and BOG odds on such an outsider means that although I am betting on a place for this horse privately I'm not going to use it in this (Hugh Taylor) challenge. Instead I'm going to go with Sandy Cove. Calypso beat him on polytrack a few months back by a neck but Taylor's choice, although still very modestly treated, carries 9 pounds more tonight and this may be enough to enable my selection to edge it. Sandy Cove keeps running to the end and is just about worth this price.

In future if there is a non-runner when I don't have time to substitute I will count the race as void for the purposes of this challenge.
Round 3

5 September Chepstow 3.45

Hugh Taylor : Euroquip Boy 100/30 (1 point)
Chigorin: Mister Mayday 7/2 (1point)

Taylor's case for Euroquip Boy is clear: excellent results recently and at this course. However consistency, as Taylor acknowledges is not one of his best attributes. However Mister Mayday rarely has given a substandard run and was very impressive when winning 3 weeks ago at Windsor, beating Bayleaf who has won since. Mayday has a change of jockey, but in Kirby I think we see (in form trainer) George Baker's intention to win this race and I fancy him to beat Euroquip Boy more times than not. Trigger Park is attractively priced as an outsider and is one whose price I will be following on the place exchanges.

By the way, regarding the last race, it seems King Calypso did run off an incredibly generous 8.8. I doubt I can be bothered to double check each item of information the ATR cards provide - their service is normally excellent- but would like to know if any of you have found similar mistakes?
Round 3 Result

Hugh Taylor : Euroquip Boy 100/30 7th scores -1
Chigorin: Mister Mayday 7/2 3rd scores -1

Total scores:
Hugh Taylor +1.5
Chigorin -3

Mr Mayday overtook Euroquip Boy in the betting to start as favourite and my selection always looked to have the beating of Taylor's but had nothing extra in the last furlong and was some way off victory. Similarly Trigger Park finished up on Euroquip Boy but landed outside the places in 5th.

I'll try and do round 4 today.
Round 4

6 September Asscot 1.55

Hugh Taylor : Purcell 28/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Heavy Metal 16/1 (1point)

One of Hugh Taylor's many strengths is his breadth of reasoning - the ability to factor in elements of a horse's performance that to others may go unnoticed or be impossible to quantify accurately using a formula (like mine). Today he makes an intriguing case for a horse that has nothing like the record of many of those he will start beside today at Ascot. However Taylor's intuition is that the addition of headgear will go some way in correcting what he sees as underperformances before today.

I have three horses to mention. Cornrow is well cased favourite but whose odds lack sufficient attraction. Day Of Conquest backed up a great summer last year with an impressive return at Goodwood in July but was disappointing in his only outing since. He has a reasonable draw and with RL Moore riding him for the first time merits serious consideration. My selection however is Heavy Metal. The four year old has 3 very impressive runs earlier in the summer, including one at Ascot. His last two outings have been less impressive but Joe Fanning has selected to stay with him and I think his price is generous enough for a stake.
Round 4 Result

Hugh Taylor : Purcell last (of 17) scores -1
Chigorin: Heavy Metal 14th of 17 scores -1

Total scores:
Hugh Taylor +0.5
Chigorin -4

A sorry race in which my formula proved only slightly worse that Taylor's intuition. I'll look to continue tomorrow.
 

Chigorin

Filly
Rounds 5-8

Round 5

9 September Redcar 3.30
Hugh Taylor : He's My Boy 6/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Native Falls 11/1 (1point)

Native Falls has won at Redcar this summer with this going and returned to form 11 days ago with a blistering show at Thirsk. William Hill are still offering him at 11/1 although the price is dropping elsewhere and this is good enough to justify the risk poised by a high quality grade 5 race. Apart from Taylor's sensible selection and Barney McGrew I've been monitoring the price on Lucky Lodge but unfortunately this has dropped significantly and I've missed my chance of value for what was to be an outside place bet.
Round 5 Result

Hugh Taylor : He's My Boy 6/1 (1 point) 6th (of 15) scores -1
Chigorin: Native Falls 11/1 (1point) 4th scores -1

Total scores:
Hugh Taylor -0.5
Chigorin -5

Despite the amateur's selection once again finishing in front of the pro's, it is the latter whom maintains his lead in this gripping challenge...
Round 6

9 September Kempton 9.15
Hugh Taylor : Plucky Dip 6/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Gracefilly 9/1 (1point)

We will have to wait for the last race of today for round 6. Hugh has pulled out Plucky Dip from an unspectacular field. Celestial Knight and Benelong have more proven appeals but the former is priced by Scrouge. Benelong especially seems closer to offering some value. He is a bit of an old man now (8 years) but still too often distracted by what is going on beside him to always perform at his best. Although a big horse I think disadvantageously treated at top weight. Therefore I am attracted to Gracefilly, who has only raced 3 times but her last outing, which was at this course and saw a huge improvement. She has the same jockey and only a small penalty and given the lack of challenge facing her is worth this price.

As normal I will tracking the place price of an unfancied horse. Fiftyshadesdarker is a huge outsider and the most likely offer a deal on the exchanges but this is more because of the modest nature of the opposition. Other horses will have to burn themselves out chasing a win and so I wont be dabbling unless the price escalates beyond the teens (currently around 12/1 for place).
Round 6 Results:

Hugh Taylor : Plucky Dip 6/1 joint second (-1 point)
Chigorin: Gracefilly 9/1 second to last (-1 point)

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -0.5
Chigorin -6

A real let-off for me as my horse never showed and Taylor's missed out by the narrowest of margins. Great news was the performance of Fiftyshadesdarker which your humble columnist managed to back for a place earlier in the day at 17.5 on betfair. As I expected with this system (see the start of this thread) I'm doing a lot better on the exchanges than by sticking to winners using BOG. Even so, an unfortunate opening to the challenge for Hugh who has had two seconds so despite 6 misses I'm not far behind!

I still fancy my chances over the 50 races. Thanks for all the support!
Round 7 Results:

Hugh Taylor : Inspector Norse 16/1 (2 points) second (scores -2)
Chigorin: Gratzi 15/2 (2 points) wins (scores 13.5 after reduction for rule 4)

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -2.5
Chigorin +7.5

So at last I break my duck. Very hard luck on Hugh who I knew had a very good selection at incredible value - however I decided to take him on in this two point race as my computer had Gratzi as a clear favourite and thus I too had what I felt was great value.

Sorry to anyone who followed me in backing Victory Rich. I saw it was 120 on the exchange at one point. It ran a lot better than that but, as to be expected with the vast majority of such tries, was considerably short of a place in 7th.

Thanks very much for those of you who have taken the trouble to say 'thanks' - it is much appreciated.

The next few days are going to be difficult for me as I'm away from my base but I will be continuing the challenge as frequently as possible.
Round 8

12 September Sandown 15.25
Hugh Taylor : White Russian 11/4 (1 point)
Chigorin: Pretty Bubbles 7/1 (1 point)

Only 6 go in the selected Sandown race but punters are spoiled for choice in a confusing line consisting of horses whose last outings ranged from grade 2 races to grade 5 and on very different surfaces. Taylor gives an articulate call for the favourite, White Russian. My heart tells me that Saucy Mix, who has more than held her own at higher grade races will be very hard to beat but I'm going with the computer selection of Pretty Bubbles. My main concern is the going. The Mare's only win on grass was on the softer side of good and her other outstanding performances have come on artificial surfaces, most recently an outstanding win at Southwell - very different under-hoof from the good at Sandown (with 0% chance of rain today as well!). Despite all these concerns I'm attracted by her improving form. She really is one who is getting better with age. Also her price in a small field makes this a worth while try.
Round 8 Results:

Hugh Taylor : White Russian 11/4 (1 point) last
Chigorin: Pretty Bubbles 7/1 (1 point) third

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -3.5
Chigorin +6.5

Sorry for the delay with this. Am hoping to get round 9 out today.
 

Chigorin

Filly
Rounds 9 - 13

Round 9

15 September Wolves 1530
Hugh Taylor : major Muscari 9/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: China Excels 12/1 (1 point)

China Excels is surprisingly long priced as the only horse running which has proven itself on the new surface at Wolverhampton; and that a comeback race against a decent field. Ross Atkinson has been on other horses in this race and may have had the option to again. The 7 year old is rarely more than a few lengths away at the finish and may have enough to go all the way this afternoon.
Round 9 Results

Hugh Taylor : Major Muscari 9/1 6th (of 13) (scores -1)
Chigorin: China Excels 12/1 2nd (scores -1)

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -4.5
Chigorin +5.5

Taylor and I have rattled up loads of runners up in the 9 races so far. Yesterday's winner was pretty much impossible to pick with the information available - one run in the last 2 years and that unspectacular. To start at 8/1 did make me a little suspicious but without some 'inside' knowledge of the horse who could back it? Shame for me as China Excels ran the race I had hoped.

No more bets today but if all is well will re-join the challenge tomorrow.
Round 10

17 September Yarmouth 1630
Hugh Taylor : Subtle Knife 20/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Desert Ranger 5/1 (1 point)

Taylor has carved out a nice long shot, surprisingly generously priced although of course the price has come crashing in now.

I've been looking closely at two horses. Its only 6 weeks since Tommy's Secret won at this level on the Yarmouth track. He has been as low as 27 on the exchanges this morning and if his price drifted this far with a BOG firm I would recommend an each way bet. However the most obvious candidate is Desert Ranger who stayed on well to win a decent preview of today's course and distance race when holding off Pleasure Bent 30 days ago. The 3 year old colt won't have Ryan Moore aboard today by Fallon has ridden him to victory here this summer, al-be-it in a much easier race. He is rated 4 points better than Subtle Knife but runs at the same weight and just about justifies these odds
Round 10 Results

Hugh Taylor : Subtle Knife 20/1 4th (of 9) (scores -1)
Chigorin: Desert Ranger 5/1 7th (scores -1)

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -5.5
Chigorin +4.5

A disappointing race for us both. Taylor's horse at least had a late run but mine never found top gear.
Round 11

18 September Ayr 1610
Hugh Taylor : Almanack 6/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Monel 14/1 (1 point)

While I agree with Taylor's reading of Almanack there are a number of other horses with more attractive odds in this race. Derbyshire and We'll Meet Again have both won recently and have raced consistently over the summer. However the latter's victory was on heavy ground and Derbyshire's last time out success at Wolverhampton's all-weather surface. What was most interesting about Derbyshire's run that it was at a drop in trip and not surprisingly he repeats that distance today. I see him as the most likely winner but am put off by his short price so am going with Monel who Ladbrokes have at a generous 14/1.

The 6 year old has his highest ever OR but only one horse will start with less of a penalty. He has put together an impressive group of results in recent months including a win at Ayr in June. And don't be put off by what at first glance appears an average showing last time when 6th of 13 at Doncaster. He had an awful start and continued to close at the finish despite the effort of catching up. He has the outside draw this time which I hope will allow a freer start and run.

I'm also monitoring the price of Chookies Lass which has currently drifted out to 25/1. She comfortably won a 3 horse race last month and was not so far away carrying extra weight last time out. She has been favourably treated here and I notice that her jockey has seemingly chosen her over other horses in this race that he has ridden before. She may well provide the necessary value for an each way try.
Round 11 Results

Hugh Taylor : Almanack 6/1 3rd (of 13) (scores-1)
Chigorin: Monel 14/1 9th (scores -1)

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -6.5
Chigorin +3.5

A repeat of yesterday with Taylor's horse at least in shot at the finish.
Round 12

19 September Ayr 1510
Hugh Taylor : Imperial Legend 14/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Pea Shooter 10/1 (1 point)

Taylor has not made it easy today by selecting races with huge fields. I feel strongly that the winner of such a large race must be in prime form to defeat 19 challengers and therefore I'm going with Pea Shooter who is 10/1 with Bet 365 and other non BOG firms. He will need to match his last run to finish ahead of the likes of Distand Past and Ladweb.
Round 12 Results

Hugh Taylor : Imperial Legend 14/1 6th of 20 (scores -1)
Chigorin: Pea Shooter 10/1 11th (scores -1)

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -7.5
Chigorin +2.5

A third consecutive disappointing day for us both. As is the routine now Taylor's choice was better than mine but neither looked likely.
Round 13

20 September Ayr 1550
Hugh Taylor : Watchable 12/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Minalisa 33/1 each way (1 point)

Taylor has snatched the best horse in this 27 runners race. I'll be betting a place for Minalisa on the exchanges where prices are vast but will opt for a each way try here. The horse has form and a good jockey if the draw could be better.
Round 13 Results

Hugh Taylor : Watchable 12/1 12th (of 27) (scores -1)
Chigorin: Minalisa 33/1 each way 2nd (scores +7.5)

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -8.5
Chigorin +10

My barren run comes to an end in some style but nowhere near as good as an extra place would have provided. I had Minalisa at 65 to win on Betfair! Still the place here gives me some daylight in the Hugh Taylor challenge.
 

Chigorin

Filly
Rounds 14-18

Round 14

22 September Kempton 1640
Hugh Taylor : Meritocracy 10/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Perfect Alchemy 4/1 (1 point)

Taylor has selected a perplexing race here mixing horses of different class and varied experience on polytrack and several likely front runners to ensure a fierce pace. Indeed several runners make their AW debut. Of these Our Queenie stands out with several good runs at high class races. How the filly will adapt to this surface remains a concern even at tempting odds. Four established polytrack runners grab my attention ahead of Taylor's choice. Outer Space and Souville are proven performers at Kempton, the former winning here last time out. However I may well be backing Captain Secret on the exchanges where his odds are already out to 25. His last two runs at first glance appear to disappoint but his brave front running at Lincoln in April was rewarded by being cut across. Last time he was also hampered and eased off. This distance and surface will suit him best and he has demonstrated he can return after a long lay off and win. Although he may lack a critical change of pace the energy in this race should suit him. However his BOG odds are too low for me to select him here (while his exchange odds offer value), therefore in a race that is more open that the bookies seem to think I am paradoxically going with the favourite, Perfect Alchemy.

She is unbeaten at the track and was very impressive on turf last month making her the form horse as well as the lowest weight in a race where the quick pace will make this a greater factor.
Round 14 Results

Hugh Taylor : Meritocracy 10/1 7th (of 10) (scores -1)
Chigorin: Perfect Alchemy 4/1 6th (scores -1)

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -9.5
Chigorin +9

So, I mentioned half the field but not the winner which was one of the first time all-weather runners. I guess why this surface is so hard to predict. 3 of the 4 polytrack tested horses that I felt would outrun Hugh Taylor's choice did so, the failure being Captain Secret who led but ran out of energy. Still, a disappointing race for us both.

If this challenge were a football match we would now be midway through the first half. Hugh Taylor started brightly and hit the woodwork several times before I scored on the break. Both sides are now hitting long balls up-field. Things will pick up I'm sure.
Round 15

23 September Lingfield 1730
Hugh Taylor : Lorraine 11/2 (1 point)
Chigorin: Sexy Secret 18/1 (1 point)
Sexy Secret reminds me off my wife. Nothing to do with the muscular behind or, unfortunately, the name, but the reluctance to pass through traffic. He ran at Lingfield at the end of August, finishing 7th of 8 and 10 lengths back. The 3 year old gelding didn't have very free run and coming off the last bend was reluctant to come through the group ahead. It eased off without losing much ground in a very unspectacular race. However a few days later with today's jockey, Simon Pearce, on board, he was taken to the front early and completely destroyed a field at Kempton. Earlier in August we saw a taste of this promise in a much more spacious run at Brighton where, despite moments of hesitation before overtaking and then (like my wife,) drifting aimlessly to the side was unfortunate not to win when second to an inspired run by Unidexter. I feel he is suited to this surface but not the tight bends and a 13 horse field, however if Pearce can drive better than my Mrs (and who can't) these are good odds even after the extra weighted slammed on him for the Kempton showing.

By the way he is still available at 20/1 with a few bog firms which was the price when I first posted - but in my haste misquoted. However I will honour my original quote unless I can benefit from a longer SP via the BOG.

I am also backing Comedy House on the exchanges on this race and would have considered a e/w bet here if it were not for the above choice being available. The somewhat diminutive 6 year old certainly doesn't mind using his shoulder to fight to the front and has run very close to winning at Lingfield at higher rated races than this. My biggest doubt concerns the extra weight he is carrying, especially on a horse his size but I have him for a place at 14.5 with betfair.
Round 15

23 September Lingfield 1730
Hugh Taylor : Lorraine 11/2 2nd (of 13) scores -1
Chigorin: Sexy Secret 18/1 3rd scores -1

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -10.5
Chigorin +8

More goalmouth action but despite two good selections the winner was comfortably the best horse.
Round 16

25 September Kempton 2015
Hugh Taylor : Sweet Talking Guy 13/2 (1 point)
Chigorin: Moonspring 9/1 (1 point)

Moonspring has be lumbered with an extra 12lbs after her cracking win in a grade 4 race at Newmarket last month but still runs lighter than when winning at Kempton under tonight's jockey in June. Sweet Talking Guy and Alnoomass (chasing a hat trick) will be hard to beat and I fancy that the well bred Shingle may be worth monitoring on the exchanges - was at 59 earlier. The colt has disappointed terribly after his impressive debut but has the talent to win at this level. Still, Moonspring is a much more serious contender and proven on this track.
Round 17

25 September Newmarket 1510
Hugh Taylor : Dei Meister 12/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Barwick 14/1 (1 point)

I've just had time to look properly at this race. Taylors choice is wonderful if it comes off as the horse has not proved itself yet and has certainly gone undere the bookies radar in true Hugh Taylor style.

Barwick is the opposite, winning on its last 2 outings and one of the older horses in the race. He has shown good and improving form all summer and hopefully will have benefitted from a few weeks away from the track to surely give him the chances these odds require.
Round 17 results (sorry that this is prior to round 16!)


Hugh Taylor : Der Meister 12/1 wins (from 12) (scores +12)
Chigorin: Barwick 14/1 10th (scores -1)

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor +1.5
Chigorin +7

An absolute jem of a tip from Taylor. This is the sort of tip that makes him, in my opinion, not only a unique tipster but a fabulous one. There was nothing in this horses history that suggested to me there was enough to bet on it but Taylor's careful study of his races allows him to see things that the likes of I cannot.

Similarly a terrible tip from me. Asking a horse to step up in weight and class is not a sensible basis on which to bet and I will try not to be so distracted by back to back wins in the future!

Taylor's horse tonight looks very promising as well...
Round 16 results


Hugh Taylor : Sweet Talking Guy 7th (of 10) (scores -1)
Chigorin: Moonspring 9th (scores -1)

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor +0.5
Chigorin +6

An anti-climax after the afternoons race with neither horse figuring.
Round 18 Newmarket 1700


Hugh Taylor : Anton Chigurh 33/1 each way (1 point)
Chigorin: GM Hopkins 13/2 (1 point)

Taylor invests each way on a selection that again appears very unlikely but the market's response to his suggestion is a reflection of his (Taylors) current good run.

I'm going to be boring and go with one of the favourites. In such big fields a horse must be in form as well as having the ability to win. I think Hopkins ticks both boxes. He has only run twice in the last year, winning both, and will probably be in better shape today than on either of these occasions for the run out a fortnight ago. Although he has been given extra weight he will still carry less than his main rival, Mange All. From his central draw he will need a little luck for things to open up but being held up may help him as he is slightly stepping up in trip - to a distance his stamina well suits.
Round 18 Results

Hugh Taylor: Anton Chigurh 33/1 each way 15th (of 22) (scores -2)
Chigorin: GM Hopkins 7/1 won (scores 7)

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -1.5
Chigorin +13

It didn't have the sparkle of Taylor's win yesterday but always satisfying to pick a winner from such a large field.
 

Chigorin

Filly
Rounds 19-22

Round 19 Ripon 15.55

Hugh Taylor : Seeking Magic 7/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Spinatrix 7/2 (1 point)

Not many of those running is Taylor's selected race can be said to be in their best form. The best exception may be Avon Breeze who has performed well on this track this year with suggestions that she may cope with the required step up in class. However Spinatrix offers far more security. Hugh Taylor accurately describes a race here a year ago where Seeking Magic would surely have beaten Spinatrix given a clear run. Since then Spinatrix has gone on, while Seeking Magic has failed to repeat that promise. This summer Spinatrix has improved in form, evidenced by a very close second at Pontefract last time in a Group 1 race. Although she carries top weight the difference in load with Seeking Magic is less than it was last September but it is her improvement and consistency in form that makes her worth her selection despite only having half the odds of Taylor's.

Connor Beasley is riding very well at the moment and I fancy him to bring home the favourite on a familiar course.
Round 19 Results

Hugh Taylor : Seeking Magic 7/1 4th (of 10) scores -1
Chigorin: Spinatrix 7/2 won scores 3.5

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -2.5
Chigorin +16.5

Actually very similar to the race last year where Seeking Magic didn't get a clear run and could have been closer. Credit to Connor Beasley who did everything absolutely right. Certainly under a different jockey I think the result could have been otherwise.
Round 20 Hamilton 15.10

Hugh Taylor : Tango Sky 5/2 (1 point)
Chigorin: Live Dangerously 14/1 (1 point)

Taylor has stuck with the correctly short priced and lightly loaded favourite who indeed is unlikely to be beaten. Cases can be made for all but one of the other horses in a very tough class 6 race where most of the runners have been worked at levels above today's.

Feel The Heat is a curious one. This time last year the then 6 year old smashed a class 3 race on this course. Something must have happened to him after that. He has failed to beat another horse in his last two outing despite dropping classes. It is not often you will find a horse with an official rating of 70 listed at 28/1 in a class 6 race and he may well be worth this risk but without knowing more about his history over the winner I cannot recommend him.

Live Dangerously won here just over a month ago. He's crammed in the races since. The four year old followed up with 2 runner up spots (in small fields) and then moved up to class 5 and struggled. There must be a doubt about his ability to hold off what is effectively another class 5 field today but at 14/1 with Stan James he merits trying especially when the best horse is already taken!
Round 20 Results

Hugh Taylor : Tango Sky 5/2 2nd (of 9) scores -1
Chigorin: Live Dangerously 14/1 4th scores -1

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -3.5
Chigorin +15.5

Unfortunately I made the wrong choice here from the two horses I contemplated above. In my defence, Feel The Heat was 25/1 when I submitted my selection. Had he been the 50/1 at which he started I may have made a different choice. Luckily for me I did at least get a bet on at 55 on betfair but I saw its price continued to rise as far as 70 and maybe further!
Round 21 Wolverhampton 1820

Hugh Taylor : Modernism 4/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: God's Speed 12/1 (1 point)

Hugh Taylor names Mazaaher at the most likely challenger to Modernism but God's Speed is an outsider with serious credential. The 3 year old is, in my estimation, improving with every race. He had success on the old surface but his run there 10 days ago when he was 4th in a strong class 3 race showed the new surface is to his suiting. Even his preceding show at Kempton was he was only 8th of 9 was decent. Again this was a class 3 race and he was only 4 lengths back from the winner.

Like Modernism he drops in class and distance tonight but he has 3 benefits that make him a good bet. Firstly he has reaffirmed that he is well suited to this reduced trip. Secondly he has an established jockey and thirdly he has a much more attractive price.
Results Round 21 Wolverhampton 1820

Hugh Taylor : Modernism 4/1 2nd (of 7) scores -1
Chigorin: God's Speed 12/1 3rd scores -1

Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -4.5
Chigorin +14.5

I was very impressed by the winner, Dream Child. My selection led as they entered the final furlong and Hugh's choice piped him for 2nd at the post. On paper another goalmouth scramble but in reality Dream Child was always in control. One to follow on this track!
Round 22 Nottingham 4.20
Hugh Taylor : Weekendatbernies 11/1 2nd (of 8) (Scores -1)
Chigorin: Emef Diamond 8/1

Taylor takes us to Nottingham this afternoon and focuses on a very competitive mile for 3 year olds which lines up more like a class 3 than class 4. Good cases can be made for at least 6 of the 8 runners but I'm going to side with Emef Diamond who has improved as the year has progressed although without winning. If he can build on an impressive second place at Thirsk a fortnight ago he will be very competitive. There are other factors that make this likely: reunited with Silvestre De Sousa, he is bottom weight today, and as he is not the broadest of geldings this may take on greater importance. Additionally he is coming from a yard in its best form of the year; Mick Channon has a 17% strike rate this month and a considerable profit on those horses he has run.
Results Round 22
Hugh Taylor : Weekendatbernies 11/1 2nd (of 8) (Scores -1)
Chigorin: Emef Diamond 8/1 4th (scores -1)
Current Standings:
Hugh Taylor -5.5
Chigorin +13.5
 

mick

Sire
Looks interesting.I do not read HT (perhaps i should) but some of your own comments ring true and make good sense.To disagree just for the sake of going against the market is madness but to do so with good reason most wise.
 

dlinbgrove

Gelding
Fascinating read.

I think you have sold yourself short with the GM Hopkins result. HT had a 1pt EW which lost scoring -2. GMH won at 7/1 but you only scored 7x1 not 7x2pts.

I agree HT is the best tipster out there but I don't believe us mere mortals can make a profit by following him. Once the initial price is gone anyone blindly following must surely make a loss? Similarly anyone who gets Hugh's price on a regular basis must surely have their accounts closed?

Whilst you have been doing this have you noticed a corresponding increase in other horses prices or do the camel coats merely shorten HT's.

It might be worth considering other horses backed overnight and early morning before HT's tips appear. If those horse go back to their original price or greater they could be worth consideration - hopefully they were originally shortened for a reason.

Eagerly awaiting HT's return so battle can recommence.

David
 
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