Chigorin
Filly
The following posts are copies of a thread I started on another site - but didn't continue once the site crashed and went down for several days. I am continuing the thread now under the same name on the Tips page.
Rounds 1 - 4
I’m going to match my selections to those races chosen by Hugh Taylor on the excellent ATR pages. As many of you will know, Taylor gives daily tips and has run considerable profits for the last 5 years. He really is the bar in terms of proven tipsters.
The rules of this little competition are as follows:
1. The competition will run over 50 selections and the winner will be whoever has the greatest profit. (I expect to finish around Xmas.)
2. I will only select horses from races selected by Taylor, and other than his selection.
3. I will only use BOG firms odds (although the system I am using is geared specifically for use on the exchanges)
4. I can choose which of Taylor’s races to compete in.
5. Like Tayor I can choose whether to make a ‘to win’ or ‘each way’ bet.
6. I will match (in points) whatever stake Taylor makes.
Wish me luck – I will post round 1 shortly…
Round 1
2 September Kempton 19.50
Hugh Taylor : Ze King 14/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Shalambar 25/1 (1point)
Round 1 Result
Hugh Taylor -1, Chigorin -1.
Round 2
3 September Kempton 20.40
Hugh Taylor : King Calypso 7/2 (1 point)
Chigorin: Assoluta 33/1 each way (1point)
Hugh Taylor has stayed at Kempton and justifiably selects a proven favourite.
I’ll be backing two real outisders on the exchanges where better odds and place bets are possible. Classic Mission was much improved last time out and JG Portman has had an excellent couple of weeks so I fancy the gelding to outrace the long odds offered on the exchanges, especially now it is racing at what is likely to be his best distance.
However, my pick for the match with Hugh Taylor is Assoluta. It may seem strange to take a horse well beaten on its last two outing by Taylor’s selection but the filly will be running almost a stone better in comparison to the favourite this time. Renato Souza has won on her before and her draw, immediately outside King Calypso, will allow Souza to track the favourite to the finish giving her every chance of saving a place at least.
Round 2
3 September Kempton 20.40
Hugh Taylor : King Calypso 7/2 (1 point)
Chigorin: Sandy Cove 11/2 (1point)
Unfortunately my selection for tonight's race is a non-runner. I'm tempted to substitute with Classic Mission for the reasons I gave above but the gulf between exchange and BOG odds on such an outsider means that although I am betting on a place for this horse privately I'm not going to use it in this (Hugh Taylor) challenge. Instead I'm going to go with Sandy Cove. Calypso beat him on polytrack a few months back by a neck but Taylor's choice, although still very modestly treated, carries 9 pounds more tonight and this may be enough to enable my selection to edge it. Sandy Cove keeps running to the end and is just about worth this price.
In future if there is a non-runner when I don't have time to substitute I will count the race as void for the purposes of this challenge.
Round 3
5 September Chepstow 3.45
Hugh Taylor : Euroquip Boy 100/30 (1 point)
Chigorin: Mister Mayday 7/2 (1point)
Taylor's case for Euroquip Boy is clear: excellent results recently and at this course. However consistency, as Taylor acknowledges is not one of his best attributes. However Mister Mayday rarely has given a substandard run and was very impressive when winning 3 weeks ago at Windsor, beating Bayleaf who has won since. Mayday has a change of jockey, but in Kirby I think we see (in form trainer) George Baker's intention to win this race and I fancy him to beat Euroquip Boy more times than not. Trigger Park is attractively priced as an outsider and is one whose price I will be following on the place exchanges.
By the way, regarding the last race, it seems King Calypso did run off an incredibly generous 8.8. I doubt I can be bothered to double check each item of information the ATR cards provide - their service is normally excellent- but would like to know if any of you have found similar mistakes?
Round 3 Result
Hugh Taylor : Euroquip Boy 100/30 7th scores -1
Chigorin: Mister Mayday 7/2 3rd scores -1
Total scores:
Hugh Taylor +1.5
Chigorin -3
Mr Mayday overtook Euroquip Boy in the betting to start as favourite and my selection always looked to have the beating of Taylor's but had nothing extra in the last furlong and was some way off victory. Similarly Trigger Park finished up on Euroquip Boy but landed outside the places in 5th.
I'll try and do round 4 today.
Round 4
6 September Asscot 1.55
Hugh Taylor : Purcell 28/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Heavy Metal 16/1 (1point)
One of Hugh Taylor's many strengths is his breadth of reasoning - the ability to factor in elements of a horse's performance that to others may go unnoticed or be impossible to quantify accurately using a formula (like mine). Today he makes an intriguing case for a horse that has nothing like the record of many of those he will start beside today at Ascot. However Taylor's intuition is that the addition of headgear will go some way in correcting what he sees as underperformances before today.
I have three horses to mention. Cornrow is well cased favourite but whose odds lack sufficient attraction. Day Of Conquest backed up a great summer last year with an impressive return at Goodwood in July but was disappointing in his only outing since. He has a reasonable draw and with RL Moore riding him for the first time merits serious consideration. My selection however is Heavy Metal. The four year old has 3 very impressive runs earlier in the summer, including one at Ascot. His last two outings have been less impressive but Joe Fanning has selected to stay with him and I think his price is generous enough for a stake.
Round 4 Result
Hugh Taylor : Purcell last (of 17) scores -1
Chigorin: Heavy Metal 14th of 17 scores -1
Total scores:
Hugh Taylor +0.5
Chigorin -4
A sorry race in which my formula proved only slightly worse that Taylor's intuition. I'll look to continue tomorrow.
Rounds 1 - 4
I’m going to match my selections to those races chosen by Hugh Taylor on the excellent ATR pages. As many of you will know, Taylor gives daily tips and has run considerable profits for the last 5 years. He really is the bar in terms of proven tipsters.
The rules of this little competition are as follows:
1. The competition will run over 50 selections and the winner will be whoever has the greatest profit. (I expect to finish around Xmas.)
2. I will only select horses from races selected by Taylor, and other than his selection.
3. I will only use BOG firms odds (although the system I am using is geared specifically for use on the exchanges)
4. I can choose which of Taylor’s races to compete in.
5. Like Tayor I can choose whether to make a ‘to win’ or ‘each way’ bet.
6. I will match (in points) whatever stake Taylor makes.
Wish me luck – I will post round 1 shortly…
Round 1
2 September Kempton 19.50
Hugh Taylor : Ze King 14/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Shalambar 25/1 (1point)
Round 1 Result
Hugh Taylor -1, Chigorin -1.
Round 2
3 September Kempton 20.40
Hugh Taylor : King Calypso 7/2 (1 point)
Chigorin: Assoluta 33/1 each way (1point)
Hugh Taylor has stayed at Kempton and justifiably selects a proven favourite.
I’ll be backing two real outisders on the exchanges where better odds and place bets are possible. Classic Mission was much improved last time out and JG Portman has had an excellent couple of weeks so I fancy the gelding to outrace the long odds offered on the exchanges, especially now it is racing at what is likely to be his best distance.
However, my pick for the match with Hugh Taylor is Assoluta. It may seem strange to take a horse well beaten on its last two outing by Taylor’s selection but the filly will be running almost a stone better in comparison to the favourite this time. Renato Souza has won on her before and her draw, immediately outside King Calypso, will allow Souza to track the favourite to the finish giving her every chance of saving a place at least.
Round 2
3 September Kempton 20.40
Hugh Taylor : King Calypso 7/2 (1 point)
Chigorin: Sandy Cove 11/2 (1point)
Unfortunately my selection for tonight's race is a non-runner. I'm tempted to substitute with Classic Mission for the reasons I gave above but the gulf between exchange and BOG odds on such an outsider means that although I am betting on a place for this horse privately I'm not going to use it in this (Hugh Taylor) challenge. Instead I'm going to go with Sandy Cove. Calypso beat him on polytrack a few months back by a neck but Taylor's choice, although still very modestly treated, carries 9 pounds more tonight and this may be enough to enable my selection to edge it. Sandy Cove keeps running to the end and is just about worth this price.
In future if there is a non-runner when I don't have time to substitute I will count the race as void for the purposes of this challenge.
Round 3
5 September Chepstow 3.45
Hugh Taylor : Euroquip Boy 100/30 (1 point)
Chigorin: Mister Mayday 7/2 (1point)
Taylor's case for Euroquip Boy is clear: excellent results recently and at this course. However consistency, as Taylor acknowledges is not one of his best attributes. However Mister Mayday rarely has given a substandard run and was very impressive when winning 3 weeks ago at Windsor, beating Bayleaf who has won since. Mayday has a change of jockey, but in Kirby I think we see (in form trainer) George Baker's intention to win this race and I fancy him to beat Euroquip Boy more times than not. Trigger Park is attractively priced as an outsider and is one whose price I will be following on the place exchanges.
By the way, regarding the last race, it seems King Calypso did run off an incredibly generous 8.8. I doubt I can be bothered to double check each item of information the ATR cards provide - their service is normally excellent- but would like to know if any of you have found similar mistakes?
Round 3 Result
Hugh Taylor : Euroquip Boy 100/30 7th scores -1
Chigorin: Mister Mayday 7/2 3rd scores -1
Total scores:
Hugh Taylor +1.5
Chigorin -3
Mr Mayday overtook Euroquip Boy in the betting to start as favourite and my selection always looked to have the beating of Taylor's but had nothing extra in the last furlong and was some way off victory. Similarly Trigger Park finished up on Euroquip Boy but landed outside the places in 5th.
I'll try and do round 4 today.
Round 4
6 September Asscot 1.55
Hugh Taylor : Purcell 28/1 (1 point)
Chigorin: Heavy Metal 16/1 (1point)
One of Hugh Taylor's many strengths is his breadth of reasoning - the ability to factor in elements of a horse's performance that to others may go unnoticed or be impossible to quantify accurately using a formula (like mine). Today he makes an intriguing case for a horse that has nothing like the record of many of those he will start beside today at Ascot. However Taylor's intuition is that the addition of headgear will go some way in correcting what he sees as underperformances before today.
I have three horses to mention. Cornrow is well cased favourite but whose odds lack sufficient attraction. Day Of Conquest backed up a great summer last year with an impressive return at Goodwood in July but was disappointing in his only outing since. He has a reasonable draw and with RL Moore riding him for the first time merits serious consideration. My selection however is Heavy Metal. The four year old has 3 very impressive runs earlier in the summer, including one at Ascot. His last two outings have been less impressive but Joe Fanning has selected to stay with him and I think his price is generous enough for a stake.
Round 4 Result
Hugh Taylor : Purcell last (of 17) scores -1
Chigorin: Heavy Metal 14th of 17 scores -1
Total scores:
Hugh Taylor +0.5
Chigorin -4
A sorry race in which my formula proved only slightly worse that Taylor's intuition. I'll look to continue tomorrow.