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Taking Another Fresh Look

Tufnel

Filly
It's been well over 4 months since I last posted on the forum having gone round in circles trying to decipher how VDW might have found those Best Bets/Next Best Bets. And whilst I found some nice priced winners along the way, eventually it was clear I was nowhere near the sort of strike rate that he implied.

Now we all know Mr Hall was not who he claimed to be as far as readers of his letters and books were concerned and had obviously pulled some very dishonest strokes in his lifetime, but I'm not going to get into all that again. Because whatever way we look at it, he did provide quite a bit of food for thought on how to go about finding winners in the racing game.

I was reading a lot on the forum over the last few days from posts going back several years. There's a lot of mention of the probables, Erin figures and the second numerical picture etc, but still not cast iron definitions from anyone on how they were actually calculated. Quite a few posters say they are not really crucial to the method, though won't actually reveal how they are calculated either, so that comes across as somewhat contradictory and confusing for people.

It seems to me they are about past odds tied up with previous placings relative to other runners in those past races. And whilst it probably is useful to have a rating to view these easily, it still boils down to checking out past form and the past form of all involved. So in that respect, finding the solution to the calculations of these "secret" probables figures isn't as important as we all seem to want them to be.

Whilst looking over some of the old posts and some of the VDW books, I noted the final page of Systematic Betting which was written along the same lines that Hall gave in one of his final letters to Tony Peach. He mentions other multiple ways of finding winners including again the "easy cracking of the handicap" and the easy way to find the "best bets" amongst others. I've attached the shot of the passage.

And this kind of confirmed to me that he knew there were multiple avenues to search for winners, and there was no one size fits all solution. I think I found the gist of several of these avenues in many of the selections I posted last year, but there was still too much ambiguity about how to approach things consistently and I disappeared down too many rabbit holes looking for new ways to look at things.

I think one thing Hall was guilty of was thinking he was presenting things in a manner that would make it easy for anyone to unravel his approach. It should have been obvious to him early on that people were thinking it was easy, but finding to their cost it most certainly was not clear what he was trying to put across. And it seems to me that in his twilight years, when by his own admission he had largely withdrawn from betting horses, he could easily have fulfilled the intentions given in the conclusion passage from SB (below) and told us more about these various other ways to find good bets. I think it says a lot that he didn't. Could it be he would have exposed these methods as merely useful tools rather than any great strike rate method that found 14/1 best bets and 9/1 next bests on the same day several times a week?

Anyway, having taken some time out from betting and tried to look at things again and adapt to modern racing and trainer traits, I thought I'd post where I'm up to now. And I'm very much trying to take the approach of being forewarned and forearmed, rather than approaching each day with a blank page. So yes, I am tracking horses I am judging to be likely contenders for a visit to the winner's enclosure as well as looking at the daily cards for those horses that may well fit the unexposed recent form criteria and are now being placed to show their best.

So at the risk of setting up a false start, these are the horses I have from my lists running today who I think are being placed to win. They were originally listed because of certain types of races they had made an appearance in and how they had been placed beforehand with obvious view towards their handicap marks and race distances with also reference to what they had achieved before. Hopefully they can make a good showing and make it worthwhile me going into any more depth. Let's see how they get on though.

Salisbury
5:07 Alhattan

Sligo
6:15 Verbal Sparring

Wetherby
7:30 Angle Land
8:00 Carolus Magnus
 

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It's been well over 4 months since I last posted on the forum having gone round in circles trying to decipher how VDW might have found those Best Bets/Next Best Bets. And whilst I found some nice priced winners along the way, eventually it was clear I was nowhere near the sort of strike rate that he implied.

Now we all know Mr Hall was not who he claimed to be as far as readers of his letters and books were concerned and had obviously pulled some very dishonest strokes in his lifetime, but I'm not going to get into all that again. Because whatever way we look at it, he did provide quite a bit of food for thought on how to go about finding winners in the racing game.

I was reading a lot on the forum over the last few days from posts going back several years. There's a lot of mention of the probables, Erin figures and the second numerical picture etc, but still not cast iron definitions from anyone on how they were actually calculated. Quite a few posters say they are not really crucial to the method, though won't actually reveal how they are calculated either, so that comes across as somewhat contradictory and confusing for people.

It seems to me they are about past odds tied up with previous placings relative to other runners in those past races. And whilst it probably is useful to have a rating to view these easily, it still boils down to checking out past form and the past form of all involved. So in that respect, finding the solution to the calculations of these "secret" probables figures isn't as important as we all seem to want them to be.

Whilst looking over some of the old posts and some of the VDW books, I noted the final page of Systematic Betting which was written along the same lines that Hall gave in one of his final letters to Tony Peach. He mentions other multiple ways of finding winners including again the "easy cracking of the handicap" and the easy way to find the "best bets" amongst others. I've attached the shot of the passage.

And this kind of confirmed to me that he knew there were multiple avenues to search for winners, and there was no one size fits all solution. I think I found the gist of several of these avenues in many of the selections I posted last year, but there was still too much ambiguity about how to approach things consistently and I disappeared down too many rabbit holes looking for new ways to look at things.

I think one thing Hall was guilty of was thinking he was presenting things in a manner that would make it easy for anyone to unravel his approach. It should have been obvious to him early on that people were thinking it was easy, but finding to their cost it most certainly was not clear what he was trying to put across. And it seems to me that in his twilight years, when by his own admission he had largely withdrawn from betting horses, he could easily have fulfilled the intentions given in the conclusion passage from SB (below) and told us more about these various other ways to find good bets. I think it says a lot that he didn't. Could it be he would have exposed these methods as merely useful tools rather than any great strike rate method that found 14/1 best bets and 9/1 next bests on the same day several times a week?

Anyway, having taken some time out from betting and tried to look at things again and adapt to modern racing and trainer traits, I thought I'd post where I'm up to now. And I'm very much trying to take the approach of being forewarned and forearmed, rather than approaching each day with a blank page. So yes, I am tracking horses I am judging to be likely contenders for a visit to the winner's enclosure as well as looking at the daily cards for those horses that may well fit the unexposed recent form criteria and are now being placed to show their best.

So at the risk of setting up a false start, these are the horses I have from my lists running today who I think are being placed to win. They were originally listed because of certain types of races they had made an appearance in and how they had been placed beforehand with obvious view towards their handicap marks and race distances with also reference to what they had achieved before. Hopefully they can make a good showing and make it worthwhile me going into any more depth. Let's see how they get on though.

Salisbury
5:07 Alhattan

Sligo
6:15 Verbal Sparring

Wetherby
7:30 Angle Land
8:00 Carolus Magnus
Good luck T Tufnel
 
Yes, T Tufnel, good luck.

I re-posted one from Lee on the VDW thread I started, two sentences of which in particular I've been thinking a lot:

"certain details of the method didn't appear, at least they didn't for me, until I'd employed lesser versions of it. And unless I'd been at the particular point where I was the next crucial discoveries wouldn't have been made, as their significance would have had no reason to register in my mind."

I think that goes a long way to explain the frustrations I've felt trying to unravel VDW, and maybe yours and others.
 
Hi T Tufnel

From your screen shot the last word is Temperament

Over the years , on VDW Forums I have noticed that that some think it refers to resisting the temptation to bet, but I have always thought differently after looking up various definitions

the combination of mental, physical, and emotional traits of a person; natural predisposition.”
 
T Tufnel
Well done with Verbal Sparring
Thanks. Only a nose away from Alhattan getting up at 4/1 too. The other 2 bets were disappointing, especially Carolus Magnus who is so well handicapped now that he has to pop up at some stage. But tonight's race was the lowest class he'd run in for a long time. Perhaps he's just not interested these days?
 
Thanks. Only a nose away from Alhattan getting up at 4/1 too. The other 2 bets were disappointing, especially Carolus Magnus who is so well handicapped now that he has to pop up at some stage. But tonight's race was the lowest class he'd run in for a long time. Perhaps he's just not interested these days?
has only won 1 handicap and won no races since leaving Andrew Balding

IMG_1318.jpeg
 
T Tufnel ,

I can see why Hickory would be the pick for that race. It is not without a challenger, however, in Pearle d'Or if it runs to form.

Yorkshire isn't doing much for me with the numbers and stepping up in trip. I think the value is with Benacre for a 20/80.

Regards
 
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