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System Attic

Jack form,

Morning I was struggling to read the text even with my goggles on!

Has anyone managed to look at it in any detail yet out of interest.

Regards
 
@jackform,I enjoy Reading this thread,many of the old systems you put up are ones that I remember from my early days,and I brought Braddock's book many years ago (may still be in the attic☺).
Many of the fundamentals in these older selection methods are what I instinctively look at when trying to find a horse to bet☺,I remember following "split second" in fact,the first ever placepot I did I used his top 2 in the six races at a Doncaster flat meeting,64 lines at 10p a line £6.40 outlay A tad over £700 returned☺.
Thanks for sharing these old articles.
Nicksar.
 
Good thread Jackform Jackform invoking many memorys from those days.There was a regular contributor to the Sports Forum whose name i forget he used spread sheets time and class to give his way of using some of the vdw thoughts.Anyway he identified Dallas as his bet for the 1986 Cambridgshire and this is a less happy memory.

The nephew of my mate was doing good as a newmarket based apprentice and he bet via his uncle and my assistance.His normal ask was for £200 but two days before the above race he phoned wanting £400 on Dallas at the current general 14/1.We toured the shops and got the lot on.My mate had a £100 for himself but i decided to have nothing because i had worked the race and felt that Dallas a 3yo with a very big weight could not win.

The rest is history and you can imagine the stick i received as on the Monday we went collecting.!
 
I cam across this article in my documents file and thought it might be of interest to some. I have no idea of the source as I have had it for some years. There is a part two but I will keep that to see what is thought of this today.

Form Assessment by Racing Post Ratings


Here is the way to read and evaluate form easily and quickly. Please bear with me at times it will seem like I am stating the obvious but I want to make sure you know exactly what I am saying because when you fully understand it you will be able to look at any race and know exactly what has chances and what has none. You will also know that you will bet winners on a regular basis regardless of the price be it a 6/4 favourite or a 33/1 outsider. I have always had a 45% strike rate across the board whatever the price when only backing one horse in a race so you can appreciate just how much better that will get if you are prepared to couple the two best selections from your analysis of a race.

1. First of all recent form, 70% of all races goes to one of the form horses. Form does not just mean winners and 2nd's it’s the class that the form was achieved in that is important. You may have a runner that has won 3 class f claiming stakes running against a horse that last ran 5th of 8 in a c class handicap and on the face of it all those 1's look good but when put in comparison with the runner who ran moderately in a better class it does not look so promising.
So the first thing you do is go through all of the runners in the race and look at their last three runs (the ones that are relevant to today’s race, don’t take any notice of runs before this) when you look either in the racing post paper version or online you will see little numbers and figures next to the horses name along with the race comments for the particular past race you are looking at.
for example-big bad bob RPR 97 TS 55 (led three out, never headed) the numbers relate to RPR ,this is the Racing Posts private handicapper who assesses a horses previous runs and awards a points value rating, in Big Bad Bobs case 97(the other figure TS 55 is the Topspeed figure)
so we look at all the runners last 3 runs and pick the best RPR figure, so if Big Bad Bob had for example 97-94-91 for its last 3 runs then 97 would be the one to pick, also when you have found the best RPR from its last 3 runs also make a note of the class of race it was achieved in so again it might look something like this-big bad bob RPR 97 class d which shortened looks like this- BBB RPR 97/d
now go through all the runners and up to 10 runners use only the best 3 horses, over 10 runners pick the top 20% only, so in a 20 runner race you would pick only the top 4 horses with the best RPR from their last 3 runs. your list will look just like this-

Big Bad Bob 97/d
Susie Sue 94/d
Freddie Boy 95/c
Lucky Lad 90/c

From this we can see BBB has the best RPR but it was achieved in a lower class than Freddie and Lucky, now just by these ratings Freddie Boy would have a very good chance because it is only 2 points behind Big Bad Bob but one grade higher. Races are graded as follows Group 1, 2, 3 Listed 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and generally speaking for a horse to win in a higher class it needs to have a RPR 10 points higher than a runner who achieved its RPR in the grade it is running today. That is to say BBB's last run in a class d scoring 97 is not enough to beat Freddie or Lucky whose rating was achieved in a higher grade, For BBB to have a good chance it would need a best RPR of at least 100 (10 points higher than the nearest runner in a higher grade) true sometimes the runner who is stepping up in grade will improve and go on and win again but I will explain how to spot that later.
So at the moment Freddie Boy looks good but we need to check further to see which runners are competing above themselves and which are 'well in'(a racing term used to indicate a horse who is favourably treated on what it has already shown on past form).
So from a 20 runner race we only have 4 potential winners all in a matter of 10 minutes next we need to look at the RPR ratings either in the paper version of the post or the online version(an important point here is that if you use the online form then the RPR ratings are ADJUSTED this means that the posts handicapper has tinkered around with the horses rating according to the weight it is carrying today and how he expects the horse to perform under the conditions i.e., on the ground/at the distance. In my opinion it is a load of rubbish. What you want are the UNADJUSTED figures these show a horse’s true chances and are much more reliable. The unadjusted figure is found simply by first calculating the difference in weight a horse is carrying today and 10 stone. So if BBB has an adjusted RPR of 104 and today he is carrying 9st-7lb the difference in weight is 7 (lb) so take 7 off 104 to give you 97 and that’s his unadjusted RPR rating (the handicapper was really telling you that BBB could be expected to run 7lb better today under the conditions) if you are using the paper post then the RPR is already shown as unadjusted so you do not need to make the conversion. Right we now know that we want the RPR unadjusted so click on to the RPR ratings for the race you are looking at (or if using paper version look at the handicap chart, it is listed alongside the official handicap ratings. The one where it shows you the official handicap rating for the last 6 runs)when you click on to the RPR ratings(you will see the little box to click onto next to the trainer/jockey info)it shows you the latest RPR rating achieved. The best RPR rating achieved within the last 12 months and on the far left before the horses name today’s RPR (remember to adjust today’s rating. The others are ok)so go back to your list of four runners and looking at the first one BBB write down its RPR today, its RPR latest and its RPR best. Your list will know look like this-

Big Bad Bob 97/d 96/97/99
Susie Sue 94/d 94/94/94
Freddie Boy 95/c 92/95/101
Lucky Lad 90/c 99/90/90

So working across we can see BBB has a best RPR from last 3 of 97 achieved in class d. Its RPR today is 96, its latest RPR is 97 and its best RPR is 99. This tells us that it has a chance on its last run because it has only been raised 1 point but to win today it will need to improve on what it has already achieved because Freddie Boy has ran a 101 in a higher class, more about this later on.
Next, starting with BBB we want to find out its highest class win so click onto horses form and then click onto winning form so it is easier to see if the horse has won in a higher grade or at least equal to today’s grade, again here’s how it will look.

Big Bad Bob 97/d 96/97/99 d
Susie Sue 94/d 94/94/94 e
Freddie Boy 95/c 92/95/101 b
Lucky Lad 90/c 99/90/90 d

Next we check that the 4 on the list are suited to the going and distance. Again click on horses form and put a tick or a cross next to the horses name, a tick for suited to the going or a cross if not suited or unproven. A star * for suited to the distance and a question mark for either not suited or unproven at the distance. As a general rule (although with younger horses you have to be careful) if they have not won or at least been placed over corresponding conditions then I give them a cross.



Big Bad Bob 97/d 96/97/99 d * ?
Susie Sue 94/d 94/94/94 e ? ?
Freddie Boy 95/c 92/95/101 c * *
Lucky Lad 90/c 99/90/90 c ? *

Finally we check to see if the trainer/jockey have good enough course form (you must also check trainers current form over last 14 days) make a note against each runner with ticks and crosses again according to the trainer/jockeys track record. So if the trainer has a minimum 10% strike rate then his/her runner gets a tick or if trainer falls below 10% then that runner gets a cross, the same for the jockey.

Here is what the final table looks like

Big Bad Bob 97/d 96/97/99 d * ? * *
Susie Sue 94/d 94/94/94 e ? ? ? ?
Freddie Boy 95/c 92/95/101 c ** * *
Lucky Lad 90/c 99/90/90 c ? * ? *

Nearly there now, from the finished list we have narrowed a 20 runner class c race down to 4 potential selections. We have noted that Big Bad Bob has the best piece of recent form with a RPR of 97 but in a lower class. Freddie Boy is second best scoring 94 in a class higher it has also won in a class c grade unlike big bad bob and Susie Sue who have only won in lower grades.
The point of laying it all out like this is to give you a clearer picture as to the strength and weaknesses of the shortlist.

Now all you have to do is weigh up each ones individual strengths and weaknesses. Let’s go through each one on the list and pick the winner.

Big Bad Bob-has the highest RPR but in class d (today’s race is class c) it has never won a race of today’s class so why should it change that today? Because its best RPR is 99 in a lower class it will need to improve today (bear in mind that to perform one grade higher its RPR should be 10 points clear of next best horses RPR) when compared to the others it has the beating of Susie sue (highest RPR of 94 in an even lower class e) last time out its latest RPR was 97 compared to Susie Sue’s best ever 94. Big Bad Bob is suited by the distance but doubts about the going. Its trainer is OK as is his jockey.

Susie Sue has little chance compared to the rest only scoring 94 best ever RPR, it will need to improve to beat any of the other runners. It is stepping up in class and has only ever won in lower class. It has doubts surrounding distance/going/trainer/jockey and can be safely discounted.

Freddie Boy has the second best piece of recent form with a 95 RPR in the same class as today’s race, it has the best RPR of 101 from its best ever run so if Freddie Boy runs up to its best it will win, it has a best class win equal to today’s race and is suited to the conditions and the trainer/jockey both pass the filter.

Lucky Lad has it all to do today running off a mark 9lb's higher than it’s best ever 90, it has won in this class but not off a mark of 99. Its best ever RPR of 90 suggests it has not got much chance against Freddie Boy, Big Bad Bob or even Susie Sue who all ran better RPR last time out when compared to Lucky Lads best RPR.

CONCLUSION
If a horse’s latest RPR is better than another’s best ever RPR then this is the one to concentrate on it may improve for the run. Improvers are noted by comparing their latest RPR and their best RPR (like Susie Sue who scored 94 last time and also has a best RPR of 94, this tells us Susie Sue is improving but not enough to trouble Freddie Boy because of the grade difference in class runs. Susie Sue last ran in class d which is one grade lower than Freddie Boy’s class c. For Susie Sue to trouble Freddie Boy she would have needed a latest RPR of 105 in class d (10 points clear).
Remember compare recent form and class it was achieved in. Using RPR to see if runners are being asked to do more today than previously (like lucky lad who is being asked today to run off a mark of 99 which is 9 more than ever done before). Check runners are suited to today’s conditions. Check trainer and jockey pass filters.
So as you have most likely worked out Freddie Boy would be the selection in this example.
It may look complicated but with a bit of practise all of the above will take no longer than 10 minutes regardless of the number of runners. So next time you are faced with a 30 runner handicap you will be able to quickly work out which runners have the best chance of winning. You will often find that the runners on your shortlist fill the places so with good prices forecasts and even tricasts can pay big money for a small stake. If you use this you will more often than not have the winner of the race in your shortlist.
 
Giving the circa 1993 7 day time lapse system a run out (1st post on this thread for info).

Fontwell (going forecast G watering showers)
2.40 Give Me A Moment - won LTO 3. RJ Bandey

Uttoxeter (going forecast G some GS)
1.55 Lleyton - won LTO 7. D Brace

Wolverhampton (going forecast St)
6.00 Abnaa 4th 8 ran LTO 4. A Brittain
 
Chelmsford (going forecast St rain)
4.05 Tyche 4th 8 ran LTO 6 B Ellison
5.10 Storm Asset 2nd LTO 5 M Wigham
7.15 Red Walls 4th 8 ran LTO 5 L Williams

Lingfield (going forecast St rain)
4.45 Intervention 2nd LTO 2 M Appleby (currently listed to follow)
5.15 Porfin 3rd 8 ran LTO 5 P McEntee (yesterday's winning trainer)
 
Poor results yesterday and more like my usual standard on the AW
:(
, but one day does not make the season
:)
.

Leicester ( going forecast GS some SW scattered showers)
1.00 Jiffy Boy 3rd 12 ran LTO 6 R Brisland
4.25 Fieldsman 3rd 11 ran LTO 3 A Carroll

Southwell (going forecast St scattered showers)
5.05 Drish Hero Won LTO 6 I Furtado (listed to follow when runners qualify)
 
Official end of the jumps season is after Sandown finals day 22 April not as per yesterday's post
:(
.

Lingfield (going forecast St scatteredshowers)
4.15 Coase 2nd LTO 5 M Wigham (listed trainer to follow - lost last race)

Wolverhampton (going forecast St scattered showers)
5.30
Surrey Territories 3rd 14 ran LTO 3 B Johnson
Gurkhali Warrior 3rd 11 ran LTO 3 H Kobeissi
8.00
Blissful Song 2nd LTO 2 M Appleby (listed trainer to follow - lost last race)
Amazing Amaya 4th 9 ran LTO 7 D Shaw
 
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