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I saw your post last night.....I thought that looked a pretty cool idea ( even if it doesn't work ).
I got out of bed this morning purely with the intention of following this idea up!!.....lol
I guess it's a precursor of the P/R idea which I have been keeping an eye on recently.
Are there any race types this new idea may be more suited to hedgehog ?
Maybe Handicaps over Non-Handicaps? or not.....
Do last 3 races have to be the same? ie. Handicaps or Non.
What do you do if the top have same numbers for horses at the top? Take the highest on the card?
Good luck with it anyways......I hope it bears some fruit.
It will be interesting to see how this turns out as Gipsy De Choisel has only one race under its belt.
Perhaps 'trebling up' in such cases ie. 3 x 6 ?
Similar to what the Fineform formula does with one season run ie. doubles up that last placing.
formtheory I hope you're right, I'm trying to prove the top 2 get 60% so 1 race will have little impact. Very good luck to you.
retriever I focus on handicaps so not sure about non handicaps. It's not the top 2 or but the 2 highest sums from the field. I got stats on this ages ago for my Bayesian inference spreadsheet. I'll have a mooch about and see if I can find the likelihood ratios. I'm hoping it is profitable but I can't remember if it is.
More grist for the mill
Uttoxeter 1.57
Top 2 the Macon lugnatil and when you're ready
3rd gustavian
It's only a 5 runner affair but Irish racing led me to think it was 8.
I'm hoping I get 60% otherwise I'll have to admit ArkRoyal was right to be sceptical.
I'm using the figures for completed races. When I first had this idea years ago I thought it might explain why Irish runners do so well at Cheltenham as they tend to run in bigger fields but that may turn out to be tosh.
5/6 in betting forecast 1.48 for 0.27 against and dividing one by the other 5.48
3 most consisten from above for 1.50 against 0.84 ratio 1.79
3 biggest sum of runners from last 3 races for 1.28 against 0.86 ratio 1.49
5/6 gets about 80% winners, 3cr about 55% so I think I've over egged the pudding saying top 2 3 runners gets 60%.
I'll keep plodding on with this thread to get a recent strike and ROI
hedgehog I have attached a list of todays races and runners sorted by the most runners in their last 3 races. If a horse hasn't had 3 races I set it to -999
Checked yesterdays handicap races and I could only find one winner coming from the top 2. It's only one day but I cannot see what 'racing' reason this could be based upon.
So the idea is simply to add up how many runners a horse has competed against in its last three races, and back the top two or three according to that? So if a horse comes last of 15, last of 20, last of 20 he's probably a bet?
I suspect there's more to this process than I've guessed hedgehog, not least because your winners so far have been at short prices - which my last last last example certainly wouldn't be!
Good luck with your efforts,
Dave
@Hedghog
Is this idea at all profitable? 2/6 and 3/6 are good returns if you are only backing one horse, but how do you make a profit from backing three in a race if the win rate across all three is 50%?
Couldn't this be improved by applying some filtering to remove the really poor chances?
Dave
Hello davejb , I think you're right and I'm doing this pen and paper, no spreadsheets or databases, so at the moment I don't know what filters to apply. I'll bear it in mind going forwards
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